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TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis
TsunamiXXVIII
01/31/19 12:39:59 AM
#103:


Match 103: 2B vs. Bowser

2B 12620
Bowser 17562

I stated back in Round 1 that Bowser was in a very similar position this year to the one he was in in 2010--a 4-seed, in the division with the weakest 1-seed. The difference was that at least then, said 1-seed was a proven midcarder, and merely had the title of "weakest 1-seed" because the Noble Nine were still in the main bracket and the Heart Division was the only one that lacked one. Of course, while Bowser did knock off the 1-seed then, he had the poor timing to run into Charizard on the release date for a main-series Pokmon game.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/5/56/Cb8-116.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20100318230229

It's easy to forget that that was only a division final and not an Elite Eight match, until you remember that the Noble Nine were still in the main bracket.

This? Was not a worthy use of Bowser's time. When you're a 1-seed and the 12-seed gets a better percentage against the 4-seed than you do...yeah. 2B did well to get a bracket placement that allowed her to reach the third round, but Ness barely qualifies as a midcarder. 2B is not a threat to make a deep run, and it wouldn't surprise me if we didn't see much more of her at all. However, she did show some strength here, and this would actually have an impact on things to come.

Match 104: Phoenix Wright vs. Kirby

Phoenix 9566
Kirby 20621

And that "impact on things to come"? Right here. While Bowser was merely cruising to an Ulti-style blowout against 2B, a character with no track record (and thus, not expected to be worth much), Kirby was cruising to an actual blowout against Phoenix, who was generally believed to have finally risen to midcarder status after his shocking upset of Vincent Valentine in 2013 (admittedly only for second place in a match that had been decided almost 24 hours before it began, and remember that the matches were only twelve hours long). And Phoenix had put up what seemed to be a decent win in Round 2, albeit only with the help of the registered user bonus. Then again, Ike lost to a horse in 2013. A horse from The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, mind you, but still an actual horse.

Only here's the thing: Phoenix struggling with Ike ABSOLUTELY SHITS ALL OVER the idea that Mewtwo was a FRAUD. Phoenix got a better percentage on 2013 rallybait Mewtwo than Ike got on GLaDOS in the Epona match, the same GLaDOS that FRAUDtwo annihilated in Round 1. If you really think Mewtwo is a FRAUD, then GLaDOS is the Turd of the Contest, because that is truly ridiculous. Check this inequality.

Phoenix's percentage against Mewtwo in 2013 > GLaDOS's percentage against Mewtwo in 2018 > Ike's percentage against GLaDOS in 2013.

Now remember that 2013 Mewtwo is a rally-fueled monster and 2018 Mewtwo isn't. There's no combination of Phoenix dropping and Ike boosting that doesn't still make that embarrassing for GLaDOS. Of course, as I suggested in an earlier write-up, Phoenix's win over Vincent is kind of an illusion, precisely because Mewtwo was being rallied as a potential insurance policy if Link failed to stop Draven. Board 8 loves Phoenix. Always has. And they're not alone. Phoenix Wright fans are a loyal bunch; I feel like the rally probably hurt Vincent a lot more than it hurt Phoenix.
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