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TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis
TsunamiXXVIII
01/10/19 2:30:30 PM
#70:


Match 88: Sub-Zero vs. Claire Redfield

Sub-Zero 19471
Claire 9915

Oh hey there's another match where we're still nearly unanimous (over 90%) and the casuals are split far enough that the favorite has less than 50% of brackets. This one's at least a little understandable because of the seedings; Joker was a 2-seed and a newcomer and Shulk was also the seeding favorite and didn't have Smash yet when he lost in Round 1 in 2013, so it would be easy enough for people to overestimate them. If anything, this shows where our biggest weakness to being embarrassed by the casuals lies--we usually don't have much faith in newcomers, so if one of them actually shows strength, they can easily ruin us.

Match 89: Luigi vs. Frog

Luigi 17681
Frog 11008

This was an entirely normal result, so probably the best thing to do is compare this to Bowser vs. Frog 2010. Bowser got a better percentage there, which is entirely in line with what most seasons would suggest. After all, fellow Mario character Yoshi has met both Luigi and Bowser in 1v1s and defeated the former while losing to the latter. The problem, of course, being that Luigi and Bowser met in a 4way and Luigi won. To that I say lol 4ways. It's that simple.

Match 90: Master Chief vs. Miles "Tails" Prower

Chief 12771
Tails 15923

I'm sure most of you have probably had at least one moment where you look at your bracket during the contest and say "I picked WHAT?!" Because it seems so obvious to you that you can't believe that you actually picked it wrong. I had that moment in Round 1. While 55% of Gurus were lamenting the loss of 3 points (yes, that's how many had Drake > Chief/Majima) and an additional 25% were lamenting the loss of 1, I was celebrating my insight for getting this right...only to discover that I'd picked Chief > Tails. Why had I done that? Chief hasn't been worth a damn thing for quite some time. The board knew it, as both Drake and Tails had over 50% retention rates for this match. Tails only barely, however, so I guess I wasn't the only one who thought Chief > Tails was possible.

The casuals also felt that Tails vs. Chief/Majima was more or less a toss-up. Only 16.29% picked Tails to win this match, but only 16.87% picked him to lose it, with the remaining 66.85% picking him to lose to Nathan. Yes, I know that adds up to 100.01%. We got to see raw bracket counts for correct picks as well as percentages, and I assure you that each of those numbers is correct and the extra 0.01% is the result of rounding errors.
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