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TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis
TsunamiXXVIII
01/09/19 6:55:36 PM
#66:


Match 84: Captain Toad vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Toad 12000
Aerith 17995

Look at those numbers. Captain Toad lands right on a multiple of 1,000, and Aerith comes up just five votes short of breaking 60%. Which actually does amount to a swing of just one registered user's vote making it 60% exactly (17997 to 11998).

The overall Oracle consensus was that Captain Toad exceeded expectations, but as you'd expect with it falling so close to a round number, the top picks were all extremely close. Five different people went for 60.00% exactly, and it would've had to fall right on it for them to get first place because 59.99% and 60.01% were also taken (which, yes, means that a score of 49.98 failed to be good for a top five. There's a 49.89 that's outside the top ten.)

Match 85: Geralt vs. Simon

Geralt 15334
Simon 14045

And now we're into Division 6, aka the Division of Blah. This division seemed almost custom-made to promote a bandwagon effect, because even in the absence of a true rally, a certain level of bandwagon effect tends to occur when a character is perceived to reach a round beyond what they "should" be capable of, and this division was guaranteed to allow multiple characters to reach rounds that they never had before. Obviously this was true at the highest level for most divisions since normally by Round 5, there's nothing but Noble Niners left, maybe one or two others (non-rally) if the bracket was suitably lopsided (quick, which Noble Niners did L-Block knock out in the 2007 semifinals? The answer is none of them because he'd already knocked one out in the quarterfinals and seven of the other eight had been on the opposite side of the bracket.) But Vincent Valentine was the only one in this group to make Round 4, and Ryu Hayabusa, Riku, Pac-Man, and Auron were the only other four to have made Round 3. (Also there were a couple of Round 1 matches in this division where neither character had any prior wins, although only one of the four characters in those two matches even had any prior appearances so that's a little misleading.) Oh, and Riku's only Round 3 appearance outside of Rivalry Rumble came in a year in which he didn't finish in first place in any match, getting second place in two straight rounds of fourways.

Geralt-Rosalina was the match where both were newcomers, and with Simon upsetting Ryu H, both of these characters had already reached new heights. The newcomer winning only cemented it, however. Ladies and gentlemen, start your bandwagons.
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