LogFAQs > #915382105

OhhhJa posted...

darkknight109 posted...

Yeah, good point. I mean, if you ignore the turnout (2018 was the highest voter turnout for a midterm ever in the era of universal suffrage, whereas 2010 was one of the lowest), the difference in popularity (even at his lowest point, Obama was never as unpopular as Trump), and the difference in their electoral margins (Trump got in by the skin of his teeth, winning by just ~90k votes across three states and losing the popular vote in the process), it almost looks like the two situations are similar, even though they aren't.

You're both fighting over what amounts to something that's relatively unpredictable with tiny sample sizes for all variables. I know you pride yourself with your statistics knowledge so you should admit that even *gasp* you could be wrong and trump could be reelected. After all, the polls last time suggested he had virtually no chance and we saw how that worked out. I put about as much stock in presidential approval ratings as I do those polls. Also, in reference to him winning by the skin of his teeth, Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 to al gore and still got elected again in 2004

The polls last time suggested he had a good chance. Most of the media reading the polls were the ones who thought Hilary being favored within the margin of error meant she was going to win easily. I remember a few left wing commenters screaming from the roof tops that Hillary was a weak candidate and Trump had a real shot. And even then she won the popular vote by almost 3 million. Right around what the polls were predicting. It just split in a way that favoured Trump.

As for Bush. He lost the popular vote by about half a million. And his approval ratings were still high from his response to 9/11.
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