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TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis
TsunamiXXVIII
01/07/19 7:09:32 PM
#60:


Match 74: Crash Bandicoot vs Big Boss

Crash 14601
Big Boss 16381

The opponent here seems oddly appropriate, because that's exactly what Big Boss did here. He crashed and burned. This was an absolutely awful performance. Look at Crash's history.

2002: Gets horribly overseeded, allowing him to face fodder in Round 1. (Although he still got lucky because there was a far stronger character on the same seed line as his opponent.) Fails to break 20% in his Round 2 match
2003: 38% in Round 1 against KOS-MOS. This might be a high point.
2004: Allows Master Chief to break 70% on him.
2007: Returns from a hiatus; loses to Magus, Phoenix Wright, and Bomberman. At this point, Phoenix's only previous contest appearance was the loss that ended Gordon Freeman Never Wins.
2008: Doubles up Raz from Psychonauts, but still falls well short of advancing over Nightmare (Samus Aran was the obvious first place finisher).
2010: 38.21% against Ryu Hayabusa. Remember, Crash couldn't even break 30% against Master Chief.
2013: Finally gets another win, beating Wheatley and Tommy Vercetti, but finishes in third place in Round 2 behind Elizabeth from BioShock Infinite. All you need to know about her is that she was a 3-seed, which meant low expectations thanks to that being one of the gimmicked seed lines.

So is Crash just stronger now? I know there was some sort of compilation release or something, but that shouldn't do that much for a character. It is a mystery.

Match 75: Alucard vs. Yuna

Alucard 18472
Yuna 12512

With Big Boss struggling with Crash, the instinctive thought was "wait, is Kefka the favorite in the division now?" That was what felt right, but it was easy to see that it wasn't true, because Alucard was putting up nearly identical numbers against a clearly stronger opponent. I suppose a case could've been made for Red to be the favorite; I didn't think that way because I didn't feel like narrowly beating Sora was all that strong a performance. It is, because Sora only feels weak because he never lives up to his seed lines.

I'm sure there's some analysis that conclusively shows that yes, Alucard was the favorite now.

Match 76: Kefka vs. Bomberman

Kefka 18537
Bomberman 12451

It's tough to say that a character has the most decisive win of the day and still looks bad, but Bomberman's just not that strong a character. We last saw him losing to Ezio and Tails, and that didn't seem awful at the time but Ezio looked awful this year. It probably wasn't awful, though. And he did beat Crash in 2007.

Still, Bomberman was a 26-seed in 2013. How did he even make the bracket?
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