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TopicTsunami's Post-Contest Analysis
TsunamiXXVIII
01/07/19 5:52:20 PM
#57:


Match 69: Zero vs. Knuckles the Echidna

Zero 16811
Knuckles 13128

Both entrants in this match are red anti-hero rivals to blue heroes from the mid-90s, which is honestly a more interesting bit of trivia than anything in this match.

Well, that's not quite true.

Zero (2010c) has a strength of 31.71 against Base Link.
Knuckles (2010c) has a strength of 27.79 against Base Link.

Zero wins with 56.18% of the vote!


I usually don't trust adjusted X-Stats as far as I can throw them (and seeing as how they're an abstract concept, I can't throw them at all), but that's only 0.03% away from the actual result and Knuckles literally faced Sonic in 2010. And then Sonic got blown out by Link, making the entire division look pitiful in the raw X-Stats when in fact it was full of reliable midcarders such as Ganondorf, Mewtwo, Vivi, Kirby, and Knuckles himself, in addition to others such as Donkey Kong (who is not reliable, but made Round 3 this year), Altair (who as I noted in my write-up of Ezio's loss has never lost in Round 1, and this is the first time since his debut that he missed the field entirely), and Rikku (who frequently misses the field but always performs well when she makes it).

And yes, I feel like we can call Knuckles a "reliable midcarder" even though he's never made it to Round 3. He's been in 9 out of the 10 contests (only missing 2006 because half the field was reserved for females), and he's only lost in Round 1 once, and that was when he had to deal with Mario and Zelda in a 4-way. He's almost certainly the strongest character to never make Round 3. Early on, CJayC was entirely to blame (stupid gimmicky bracketmaking), but as time has gone on, it really just does feel like he's been unlucky. Far weaker entrants have made it to Round 3 due to soft placements, including one from the same series as Knuckles. (At least I'm assuming Knuckles > Tails. That might actually be a match worth seeing, though!)

Match 70: Master Hand vs. Wario

Master Hand 11686
Wario 18257

And you needn't look any further than this match to see that a decent record doesn't necessarily mean you're strong. This was Wario's first run to Round 3, but his only Round 1 loss was to Shadow the Hedgehog (who immediately had to face Mario after that. No points for guessing which admin that was under), which means he's officially .500. Except not really because two of his contests were 2007 and 2008 and both times he advanced in second place in Round 1 and got 4th place in Round 2, meaning he went 2-4 against individual characters but is credited with a 1-1. His 2013 performance is, I suppose, a "proper" .500, getting last place in Round 2. But the only win he has that's kind of impressive is coming in second place in a match in which he was the only character not to appear on the N64, going up against Fox, Captain Falcon, and Banjo. Banjo is weak, but beating Captain Falcon is pretty good.

Master Hand is also .500 all time, having lost in Round 2 in both of his contest appearances.
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