LogFAQs > #913565463

creativename posted...

Lopen said that he picked Mario with 60% without thinking Mario boosted relative to Samus.

Well I mean it was 13 years ago. Let's be honest-- I really don't know if 60% was chosen due to being super duper confident Mario would win beforehand. It's not like I do all my Oracles way ahead of time. I believe I probably took a posture of having more conviction in that 60% because I never liked the narrative that Mario needed to boost to win that match and win it easily. If he puts up less against Zero, yeah maybe I drop it to 57%? I really don't know.

I do recall thinking the match would not be close before the contest even began. Largely because of a SFF split among the Nintendo core bending his way despite Samus having better outside Nintendo support making her more strong indirectly.

I do also think that trying to say Mario needed to boost to win a match he won 60-40 reeks of damage control-- and I'm sorry to psychoanalyze, but it just does. And I do think it's more unreasonable to think that 04 Mario would lose than that he could potentially swing a 60-40 in 04, because SFF matches in general are strange and 04 had our most severe SFF beatings in contest history. Very possible that Mario was weaker in 04, but had more strength with SFF because of the way the voterbase was that year and it would offset. You think it's wrong, but you can't know that.

I mean for more theories, it's also possible that how much weaker Mario was in 04 vs 05 was exaggerated due to Crono artificially boosting for that match alone because he was 0-2 in heart breaking matches, meaning Mario's more accurate x-stat value is being set equal to Crono. It's also possible that Crono is underrated slightly in 04 due to very slight Link/Crono SFF. It's also possible that Samus is overrated slightly in 04 due to facing no direct Nintendo competition and being measured through the least tainted source of Cloud Strife.

Am I seriously arguing any of those? I don't know. I'm just saying there are a ton of angles to consider and you have to be damn sure none of it applies before seriously humoring a 60-40 can flip on its head. I'd say it's obvious that Mario 2k5 is stronger than 2k4. That much is clear. As far as how much stronger, how much stronger or not Samus is in 2k5 vs 2k4, or was in 2k4 relative to Mario, it's a lot of speculation limited by our small data pool to work with and a lot of things that just don't stat very well.
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