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Topic | KP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis |
KanzarisKelshen 10/17/18 11:43:33 PM #428: | KamikazePotato posted... NeoElfboy posted...and you seem to be putting way too much stock in a 2010->2013 drop despite a format change), I think it's got to do with our lessened votals, yeah Like I don't think Chrono Trigger does that well in BGE if our votals stop being pathetic, for instance. Voting trends in Mario/Crono matches over time always point towards higher poll numbers favoring Mario because only so many people played CT. One of these days I have to sit down and track what kind of upward trend we have in votals as a contest gets closer to the end so I can guesstimate how many votes Melee/CT got in BGE 2015 over the average expected value for its round, because if we say we got 27k extra votes there (comparing how CT did in the previous round to that match), this means CT only managed to get 5k out of like, 27k extra votes, a little less than 20% - which means its 'true strength' was already around 30k votes or so and couldn't go much higher. Too many data points point that way for me to feel comfortable backing Crono in Crono/Cloud unless our votals are at like, 20k or something. It really sucks that it feels like we're predicting how hardcore a fanbase is these days, over how big it is. --- Shine on, you crazy diamond. ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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