LogFAQs > #886817352

foolm0r0n posted...

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/70qjlv/i_was_just_doing_my_job_soviet_officer_who/

Same reaction every time people see stories like this. It's always about how insanely close we got to total destruction, and how magically lucky we were to avoid these close calls not once, twice, but over a dozen times.

If a quarter lands on its edge a dozen times in a row, that's not luck. There's magnets or something forcing it up. It's actually extremely normal and expected. It's only your ignorance that causes the perception of insane luck.

Basically agree. Talked about this on SSC recently. Everyone theorizes all these dramatic "end of the world" or "world war 3" scenarios (i.e. if we implement a no-fly zone over Syria and someone shoots down a Russian plane they will immediately declare war on the US and start launching nukes). And these theories definitely make sense from the autistic game theory perspective, i.e. aggregated to thinking like a government. But they fall apart once you realize that you're dealing with actual people who need to launch actual weapons and aren't going to do it based on realpolitik game theory. They're only going to do that if they're absolutely fucking sure it's necessary to ensure their own survival.
---

SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - http://i.imgur.com/W66HUUy.jpg
http://dudewheresmyfreedom.com/