I'm thinking NoA feels those aren't realistic figures at all for some reason.
And I haven't been following this too closely except offhand comments from friends and the occasional ragerant on reddit, so 30k whatever, oh well.
Nintendo's made it clear they are going after the hardcore market with Wii U in America, they are probably not caring at this point what Xenoblade would sell. I'm going to play it either way, so it doesn't really matter. Import can get my money and show of support.
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It is what it is.