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| Topic | What are the chances that America's COVID deaths will tip the balance in future. |
| adjl 08/07/21 1:06:51 PM #2: | Presidential elections? Fairly slim. I don't expect total deaths to break more than 800-850k (throwback to when Trump was confident they'd never break 100k >.>), maybe a million if it really drags on. The 2020 election had a difference of ~7 million votes overall, while the 2016 one differed by about 3 million. Even if we were to assume that 100% of those deaths belonged to one party or the other (which is flat-out incorrect), that's not going to be enough to make up those differences. More local elections? It's not impossible, but areas where the vast majority of people dying are of similar political affiliations are generally areas where the vast majority of people in general share that same affiliation anyway, and Covid's not killing enough people to change that. I expect a few elections will be influenced by Covid deaths in particularly contentious areas, but nothing on a really large scale. --- This is my signature. It exists to keep people from skipping the last line of my posts. ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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