LogFAQs > #950430575

Eevee-Trainer posted...

Always go for Wolfram. (https://is.gd/8khDa3)

Anyhow, we want to focus on a binomial distribution with probability p = 0.35 (to keep it nice and round). Assuming you didn't just stop after getting the first, we consider the number of ways in which you could get one success, which would be given by 33-choose-1, and multiply by the relevant probabilities.

The end result is C(33,1) * (0.35)^1 * (0.65)^30, or about 0.0028%.

But this is a flawed calculation for a number of reasons, but it gives a rough estimate I suppose.

Yeah, I wouldve kept going but I ran out of skip tickets at 33 and like fuck Im gonna farm those stages manually >:(

I have terrible luck in games sometimes. Like with this draw in Arknights; literally half was the same character, and four times were in a ROW



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Bun bun :3