LogFAQs > #947749546

xp1337 posted...

I mean, in retrospect it doesn't seem crazy to say that Trump drives some turnout that is missed by the polls (the lack of social/institutional trust and zero social connection work that Rock referenced may provide an explanation) that mentally adding a few points to Trump's margin on the polls no longer seems entirely outlandish.

I think one of Trafalgar or Ras started doing that under the pretense of "shy Trump voters" and while I and a few others rolled our eyes at that - in terms of getting the result that may have been my mistake. I would still however maintain that doing that to your own polls means you're no longer polling though and it's disingenuous to present your findings as that. Because at that point you're no longer polling. It may be that whatever prior you're inserting turns out to be accurate but call it what it is and don't try to sell it as what it's not.

I don't know if I agree. Here is why. The polls were stating they couldn't get people to return data in large swathes of areas that are very likely republican areas. The PA map was like half the state across the middle of it and areas all around. Now, since they can't get data, they work around those areas to get their polls. While these nonsense polls as you call them just considers them a likely republican shy voter.

So one assumes data and one works without data. Which is correct there? Idk. I know the assume data one seems to end up fairing better in battleground states a lot though.

I mean, one A+ poll had Wisconsin +17 Biden. 0.o

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