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TopicElection Stats and Discussion - Part 2
red sox 777
11/07/20 1:16:25 PM
#185:


Biden got a lot more votes from Allegheny. Looks like at least 19,000 out of those 29,000 they waited for days to count were not duplicate votes. At 34k, even assuming the other 10k from Allegheny were rejected as duplicate votes, there is just too much lead to overcome even with an outstanding performance in the provisionals. Nonetheless, depending on how he does with them, it may end up close enough for a recount. A recount is unlikely to move the results more than a few hundred, but a hand recount could take weeks.

Similar story in Georgia. Fulton dropped 5000 more votes overnight and Biden's lead is over 7000. There almost certainly just isn't enough provisional and military vote out there to overcome that.

In Arizona, on the other hand, Trump got a very nice 59% update out of Maricopa this morning, and the lead is down to 20k. If he pulls it out, my prediction will end up 47/50, with misses in PA, GA, and NV. NV should be the only miss over 0.5%.

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