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| Topic | Election Stats and Discussion - Part 2 |
| red sox 777 11/05/20 11:55:15 PM #148: | More info and a lot of extrapolation on that first batch of PA provisionals: These came from 3 deep red counties. The total election day vote in these counties was 29,599. There were 401 provisional votes accepted, for a rate of 1.35 provisional votes for every 100 election day votes. The election day percentage for Trump in these counties was 86.2%, compared to 79.6% with the provisionals (My earlier 81% was of the Trump/Biden votes only, not factoring in the Jorgensen votes in the denominator). If that rate of 1.35 provisional votes to 100 election day votes holds up, there were 4,178,428 election day votes, giving us a projected number of accepted provisional votes of....56k. If Trump wins those at the same rate of the election day votes (65%), he would gain....about 17k votes. That's probably still not enough as I think Biden is on pace to get a lead of more than 20k by the time the mail votes are done, but it could possibly bring it within range of making a difference if SCOTUS throws out the late mail votes. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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