LogFAQs > #946749084

Trump's lead in PA is now at 164k.

I went through the remaining mail votes to be counted and basically Trump's problem is that he is losing the mail vote badly even in deep red counties. There is still quite a bit of mail vote left to count in those red counties, and it's breaking between 2-1 and 3-1 for Biden. Only in the most extreme counties, where Trump is winning around 90-10 with election day votes, is he actually winning the mail in vote. And there are very few counties like that.

Trump does seem to be doing better with the latter part of the count of the mail ballots within counties, presumably because he's not losing as badly among voters who submitted their ballots later, and the ballots received at the end may have been put into a later batch. We saw that effect in Florida and Arizona.

The strange thing is that he should not be losing the mail vote this badly given the party registration breakdown. The mail vote so far is behaving as if 100% of Democrats and independents voted for Biden and 10% of Republicans too. This is his best hope here - that at some point the results will go more into line with what you'd expect based on the party turnout numbers, perhaps because Republicans overwhelmingly submitted their ballots late. Also, apparently Allegheny is done counting now and there are 29k incorrectly sent ballots, for which they sent replacement ballots, that they are going to review on Friday manually. If a good portion of these are not counted because they would be double votes, that would help quite a bit.

With that said, my best estimate at this point is that Biden carries PA by around 20k.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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