LogFAQs > #946723289

I think Biden may be starting to run short on mail-in votes to count in Philadelphia. Apparently they have only received 350k mail-in votes (with another 70k that were requested and could possibly be received after election day). But they had already counted 40% of the 350k as of early this morning. If they are at 60% now, that leaves 140k mail-in votes received in Philly to count and 70k more that could possibly come in. Assuming 200k mail-in votes split for Biden 87-12 split, that gives 150k more net to Biden from mail-in votes in Philadelphia. I think they may have some more election day vote to count as well, but that would probably come in at something tame like 70-30 instead of the monstrous numbers Biden is putting up with mail votes.

The lead stands at 389k, so 150k net from Philadelphia would leave Biden with a need for substantial non-Philly sources to make that up. He can get maybe 80k more in Allegheny. Maybe 70k in the Philly suburbs. That's pretty much it for blue counties. Biden probably wins the mail in vote in a lot of red counties too, but not sure if he'll get the kind of margins/turnout he'll need.

---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!