| Topic List | Page List: 1 |
|---|---|
| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 314: USPSBS |
| red sox 777 08/12/20 9:07:37 AM #368: | LordoftheMorons posted... They do note on an accompanying article that if the election were today the model would have Biden at like 93% or something (so the bulk of the uncertainty is coming from the time until the election, not the polls themselves). Yes, and that's a limitation on their model. It's based on the existing polling data, so it can't be as aggressive as, say, prediction markets in forecasting a move in the polls toward Trump over the next 3 months. As someone who went 48/50 in 2016 I put Trump's odds above 50% right now. Maybe something like 70/30 in his favor. Much of this is because I think Biden is a bad candidate and as the campaign gets going in earnest (with debates, etc) he's not going to be able to keep up. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
| Topic List | Page List: 1 |