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TopicElection 2020 Statistics and Discussion
red sox 777
09/20/20 12:51:54 AM
#66:


Sure, Bernie lost again, but Bernie's been losing for decades and hasn't changed his platform. That means that he does not see winning as the highest or only end. It really is irrelevant though, as this topic is for discussing elections, and not the morals of either candidates or their supporters.

pezzicle posted...
Does that matter tho? National polling is kind of useless when you could win nationally and lose the election.

I'd suspect that polling numbers in the middle ~10 states would be more important? No?

It matters only because it's correlated with the swing states. Yes, the swing state polls are better correlated with swing state voting than the national polls, but these polls all have a significant margin of error so the national polling does add some information. There are a lot more national polls than individual state polls so the individual state polls sometimes are not that accurate, whereas the 538 national polling average is going to be very accurate barring a systemic bias in the polls that extends across all the pollsters.

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