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Topic	Coronavirus Topic 10
LordoftheMorons 07/28/20 7:10:27 PM #477:	SmartMuffin posted... I don't expect everyone to get the answer right. But if everyone is getting it wrong in the same direction, as well as getting it wrong by over 200x, then that does, in fact, say something about what the public has been led to believe, in comparison to reality. If they take an arithmetic mean that's going to bias it heavily towards an overestimate. If 90% of people say that 0 people have died (the most wrong they can possibly be on the low end) and 10% say that 5 million have died, you still get an average guess of 500k deaths. --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:942705879] in Coronaviru... [t:78848706]...</cite> <quote>SmartMuffin posted... </cite> <quote>I don't expect everyone to get the answer right. But if everyone is getting it wrong in the same direction, as well as getting it wrong by over 200x, then that does, in fact, say something about what the public has been led to believe, in comparison to reality.</quote>If they take an arithmetic mean that's going to bias it heavily towards an overestimate. If 90% of people say that 0 people have died (the most wrong they can possibly be on the low end) and 10% say that 5 million have died, you still get an average guess of 500k deaths. --- Congrats to azuarc, GotD2 Guru champ!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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