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Round 6 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Analysis

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Round 1 84.07% vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey
Round 2 78.40% vs. Mass Effect 3
Round 3 60.60% vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2
Round 4 64.48% vs. God of War
Round 5 56.53% vs. Persona 5

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 84.00% vs. Subnautica
Round 2 74.98% vs. Journey
Round 3 60.90% vs. Mario Kart 8
Round 4 59.82% vs. Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version
Round 5 52.68% vs. Dark Souls

Here we are, the last actually debatable match in this bracket. Who is going to get fed to Zelda in the next round?

Both these games were in 2015, Witcher 3 was pretty fresh while Skyrim had been established. In that contest, Skyrim was the stronger game. Since then, Witcher has exploded in popularity while Skyrim, still respected, has kind of faded away.

Fast forward to 2020, and Witcher has pretty much out-done Skyrim in every round. There was even a 5 poll a few days ago with both Skyrim and Persona 5, and Skyrim was unable to perform better on P5 than Witcher did in its match. It clearly looks like the roles have reversed, with Witcher looking to be the king of the western games.

Honestly? It probably wins this pretty comfortably. Look at every other western game its faced so far. Its clearly overperformed on all of them. Skyrim might be the exception because it used to be the top dog, but I wouldnt count on it. I think the two are fairly close indirectly, so sprinkle on some western SFF or whatever you want to call it and...

Moltars Bracket: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 56%

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transiences Analysis

I went into the quarterfinals thinking that Persona 5 was maybe a quarter step better than Dark Souls, and Witcher beat P5 by a bigger margin than Skyrim beat Dark Souls. I think it's safe to say that Witcher is the clear favourite going into the most anticipated match of the contest, Mario/Smash notwithstanding.

But here's the thing: like Mario/Smash, this is a clear SFF match. Witcher and Skyrim are *the* two premiere open world WRPGs of this decade. We've already seen this kind of thing with Witcher 3/Mass Effect 3, and Mass Effect 2/Fallout 4. Mass Effect isn't an open world RPG in the same way that Skyrim and Witcher are, but there's a clear hierarchy at play here.

Skyrim loomed huge over the subgenre for years, until Witcher 3 came out. Witcher 3 has pretty much stolen Skyrim's perch over the last couple of years though. It's everywhere. It's on the Switch. (Skyrim is too.) It's got its own Netflix show. It's gotten lots of DLC. Even people who don't play WRPGs have to deal with the ubiquity of Witcher 3.

Most importantly, though, is Cyberpunk. Cyberpunk 2077 is the biggest game of the year, bar none. It was front and center last e3, and the year before that too. THey even had Keanu on stage and his pure response was a meme. Elder Scrolls 6, on the other hand, is a logo on a screen at this point. Another game, Starfield, was supposed to be revealed this year but covid probably derailed that.

Bethesda is looked down on thanks to the Fallout debacle while CDPR is brand gold with fans, labor practices notwithstanding. (if people think Last of Us lost due to poor labor practices, I recommend people take a look at CDPR.) Any "best RPG list" that's come out recently will have Witcher at the very top of the list, and Skyrim distant just because Witcher managed to push it off the mountain so hard.

Skyrim had a good argument pre-contest, as there was a clear strength gap between the two games and this site has a clear tendency to favor the originator over the iterative game that improves things. Witcher lost a disappointing match to MGS2 in 2015 (one that lost me points!) while Skyrim, weaker but still strong, beat Metroid Prime. But Witcher 3 has risen to heaven since then, and if this is the SFF match that I think it might be, this might get real, real ugly. Forget worrying about potential God of War SFF -- we could see the bottom of the bracket look like real poopoo after this one. We need a third place match between Smash and Skyrim real bad.

transience's prediction: The Witcher 3 with 59.43%

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Leonharts Analysis

I dont know what to think of this match now that its here. I still favor Witcher 3, of course, but its been so schizophrenic. It looks unbelievably dominant when its facing western games, but it looks mortal facing a mainline Mario game and the biggest JRPG of the decade. Now its facing Skyrim, a game thats certainly more of its peer than any of the other games its facing. It can lay claim to the title of most important western game of the decade even more than Witcher 3 can. There were some people who argued Skyrim wouldnt be able to hold up to the power of Dark Souls status as perhaps the overall most influential game of the decade period, but it got the job done.

I feel like a lot of people are predicting Witcher 3 to go high here because of what its done up to this point, but I think if theres a western game that can stand up to it, its Skyrim. Or maybe Im totally wrong and Witcher 3 is its worst nightmare! Who knows at this point! I think its more likely that Skyrim wins the match outright than Witcher 3 does something crazy like pushing for the doubling though! Making my prediction, Im going to operate under the assumption that Dark Souls and Persona 5 are essentially equal, which is probably fairly accurate.

Leonharts Vote: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Leonharts Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 54.07%
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Kleenexs Analysis

After all the doom and gloom surrounding Skyrim for the past month or so, here we are at the expected semifinal match, and realistically the last match of the contest - the finals is basically an exhibition at this point. I think you can still probably make a case for either game to win here, but the fact of the matter is that Witcher really has looked better every step of the way. The Pokemon match notwithstanding, Skyrim has been running slightly below par every match so far, while Witcher has been exceeding expectations left and right. If you really want to get spicy, you could probably argue that every game The Witcher has faced so far is overrated, so its results are less impressive than they seem at first. And you know what? I could actually almost buy that. Even if that were the case, however, I still have to think Skyrim is at a disadvantage. The only real way Skyrim can win this is a kind of weird Mario/Samus situation where Skyrim has the hierarchical advantage over The Witcher...but that doesnt even seem to be the case anymore. Maybe a few years ago you could have made that argument, not now, though. All the pieces are in place for Geralt and Friends to make the final. I will drop one hot take in here before I finish - I actually dont think theres going to be a ton of SFF today. Witcher should still win, but Im not expecting it to be a massive beatdown or anything. Not like I have anything to lose accuracy-wise anyway.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Witcher 3 with 53%

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Moltar Status: hype
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