LogFAQs > #938532703

L-Block

I'm writing this at 1am, the day before the match. I just did a search for "L-Block" on board 8 and came up with 34 topics. he hasn't had a match in like four days.

the L-Block Movement is gaining steam, and he looks to be completely static: he gets 28% in every poll. given that three *very* strong characters are fighting for votes, will that be enough for second place again?

...first?

now then, let's analyze this thing. let's start with the "real" characters - Sonic, Squall and Snake.

first, Snake and Squall. Snake beat him straight-up 57-43 last year, and there's no reason for that to change. in fact, Squall > Snake is the only result that I see as being impossible -- everything else can happen.

it's long been rumoured that Snake and Squall share a fanbase. Snake beat the hell out of Squall in 2002 and it looked like there was "SFF" in their 2006 match just because nobody wanted to believe Snake was that strong. plus, Squall had KH2 - how could he not have boosted?

Snake did end up being that strong though, and the "proof" is inconclusive. that said, there's been a lot of matches involving FF7 and MGS where Weird Crap has happened, most notably FF7 vs. MGS in the Game Contest. no one knows if that's weird or not, but you have to look at that and say "whoa." I still can't believe FFT went even with MGS, but that's for another day. anyway, I've always noticed that fans of Squall are also fans of Snake for whatever reason. people who like one seem to like the other. I think this hurts both of them. it may not be the tightest affiliation, but, um, did you see Dante/Leon/Pikachu? Something Weird happened there, and I have no idea what. the same thing could happen with Snake and Squall.

then there's the Brawl Boys -- Snake and Sonic. do they suck votes from each other based on how hyped people are over that game? I don't know, it seems unlikely given that these guys are so popular and people should have formed an opinion long ago.. but Snake flat out boosted through the roof and took Sonic down on the way, so you've gotta look at it as being worth something. it's even more if you think Snake's Brawl votes dried up when facing Samus. it's very possible that all three of these guys are not going to be at peak strength when this match comes around. it also seems likely that we're going to be seeing some low numbers for first place -- I wouldn't be surprised at all if none of these guys broke 30%.

which brings us to the Block.

L-Block looks like he's getting stronger as time passes. people are voting that thing over everything, no matter what. the one theory I've heard repeated several times is that L-Block will fold when against real competition. well, I'd say Kratos, Snake and Riku are real competition and L didn't budge -- he actually went up in percentage. the other argument is that L's had lucky bracket placement -- two Nintendo guys sucking each other off, and then three PS2 guys doing the same. I don't buy this, either - L-Block is simply not budging from that 28%. I believe that it's possible people will look at this match as a Snake/Sonic matchup and choose the one they like more there -- I believe this will happen in the Link/Cloud final to a certain extent, for example -- but not with the L-Block. L-Block is going to keep on getting that percentage, and the more split the match is, the harder his opponents are going to have to advance past him.

it's pretty much a lock that L-Block comes flying out of the gate. he'll be up hundreds of votes within minutes, unless that Snake picture absolutely destroyed him (which is a possibility). plus, if this match is even close at the end, L-Block is going to get a rally that will make Frog's look like nothing.

so, what happens? let's start with Sonic. it just hasn't been his contest. he might be able to benefit from some Squall/Snake Weirdness, but I wouldn't expect this to be too huge. plus, Sonic had a hard enough time beating Squall when there was a guy from the same damn game in the poll. it's very possible he could make a comeback here, but it's unlikely - I think the highest he can get is second, and I'm picking him to take fourth.

next, Squall. I believe he's going to look really good here unless Snake hurts him. he doesn't even need to be hurt by him though, since Snake is flat-out stronger than him. Snake's looked at Mario levels in previous matches, and with fan-made pics back, he should be back to optimal strength. Squall could arguably beat Sprite Snake, but that's not what we'll be seeing here. I don't know if he can pull 28%, which is where I think L will end up. I'll give him third place, which is pretty impressive given that he's still above a Noble. two weeks ago, people might have made a big deal out of this.

this leaves us with Snake and L. Snake is in a very good position here unless Squall hurts him. he already beat the Block last round and he'll be back to normal. first place seems logical.

...L-Block is far from logical, though. the addition of two stronger characters are going to hurt Snake a lot more than it will L. it's possible that Sonic hurts L because he's an iconic character from the same general time period, but I'm not buying it. L is getting stronger, his pictures are probably going to be as good as they've ever been, he's got all the board support in the world, he's going to come out destroying everyone in the poll...

can he win it? I don't know. do I have the balls to pick a ****ing tetris block over two Noble Niners?
OH YEAH

Noble Nine, broken
by Vincent? L-Block beats two
at the same damn time.

transience's prediction: L-Block with 27.88%, Solid Snake with 26.83%, Squall with 23.48%, Sonic with 21.81%
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Moltar Status: hype
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