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TopicMy AI predicts these are the future prices of bitcoin
Yellow
08/27/19 4:31:46 AM
#12:


God training takes such a long time. Too bad we don't have dedicated hardware yet. I figured out how to checkpoint and resume training, so there's that. I've read posts that recommend training for months.

So the datasets I'm using are just the plain OHLC datasets I downloaded. I could make one dataset that contains just the close data for each currency and train on that. That would give the AI the ability to cross analyze data, make connections between them. As it stands my NN seems to be very hit or miss, definitely not accurate enough to even bother running a simulation. This is exactly what I expected.

I've seen another AI dev post his AI stock recommendations on Reddit. It eventually started getting downvotes as his recommendations weren't good, so this isn't really an established science, even to those who know the most about AI.

Also, if it was, it wouldn't be very useful, as not everyone can make money off the stock market. You have to have the edge over other people as you're competing with them, not cooperating. As such, I would probably never release my algorithm, unless it doesn't work, and I wanted to impress some job recruiter. That goes absolutely for an investment that's based on nothing, like cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies values are based 100% on investor faith, and therefore are 100% not a cooperative game.

Tl Dr, any effective crypto-prediction algorithm would, interestingly, immediately stop working if it was released to the public. Therefore there is probably no public example of a working algorithm anywhere on the internet. That's good, because I hate using other people's code.

Crypto-currencies being based entirely based off human faith and emotions makes me want to find a dataset that has human emotions over time in it. A possible start to that might be going to the r/Stocks post and downloading every post. It might be worth investigating who has the most influence over Bitcoin (who owns the most Bitcoin), where they get their news from, what influences their decisions.

There is an estimated 17,868,662.5 Bitcoin * $10,000 average value, for a total of $178,686,625,000 of Bitcoin owned by people.

https://www.btcnn.com/who-owns-most-bitcoins/

Chinese Bitcoin mining farms supposedly own 81 percent of all Bitcoin. I should train a model using their news outlets as an input. I need some outside influence information to let my ai do its work.
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