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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1312
MZero11
11/28/18 8:58:48 PM
#53:


KamikazePotato posted...
So I looked at the vote totals for each match, the split between Registered/Anonymous voters in each one. General takeaways I found:

1. There is a small correlation between the number of voters and the number of Anonymous voters. Higher Vote Totals = A Higher % of Anonymous Voters (by a little). However, as the vote totals only rise slightly as the contest goes on, this doesn't amount to much and it's honestly hard to tell if there's even a correlation.
2. There is a much bigger correlation between the length of the contest and the % of Anonymous voters. The longer the contest goes on, even despite the number of voters not necessarily increasing very much, a larger portion of them end up being Anonymous voters. The first two matches had less than 50% of the voters be Anonymous; by the end of the main bracket, the Anonymous voters generally made up about 53% of all voters.

So what does this mean? Well...the day of Cloud/Alucard and Crono/Bowser got the standard number of vote totals and 53.3% of voters were Anonymous. So the week break doesn't look like it's done too much damage to the natural contest momentum.

However! It affected Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu quite a bit. You may be surprised to hear that, despite the supposed rallies going on, those matches received less Anonymous Voters than the next day, both in the percentage and the raw amount. There were less Registered Voters as well. This implies that the week break affected the voter turnout for Link/Ganondorf and Mega Man/Pikachu...especially among Anonymous Voters, who likely weren't as aware of when the contest was coming back as the Registered Voters. So, theoretically speaking, there will be more Anonymous Voters when Mega Man and Pikachu have a rematch. And Mega Man is more popular among Anonymous Voters.

tl;dr - Stats predict that Mega Man has the edge going into his salty runback, as there will be more Anonymous Voters this time around.


good stuff
---
MZero, to the extreme
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