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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 206: Acostin' Fragile Don's Pathetic Press Conference
xp1337 11/08/18 3:14:00 PM #227:	TheRock1525 posted... Suprak the Stud posted... TheRock1525 posted... Btw Nelson is within the .25% for an automatic hand recount in Florida. Oh God if Nelson somehow wins and Sinema somehow takes Arizona, Trump's "tremendous success" could be one Senate seat. Neither of those are that likely to happen, sadly. I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic. cue Debbie Downer trombone 538 is sticking firm with a +2 gain to Republicans in the Senate. That would mean 53-47 which would assume either a Sinema or Nelson win. That's because of probability. I'm too lazy to open 538 and check the exact numbers, but let's just say it pegs the R win at 60% in each. From a probability standpoint: Rs winning both: 36% Split: 48% Ds winning both: 16% The most likely outcome is split so it'd say R+2 but independently the odds would favor the R in both. Technically it'd be like R+2.25 or something but again, that would round to 2. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? <cite>xp1337 posted [p:912058864] in Politics C... [t:77181966]...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRock1525 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Suprak the Stud posted...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRock1525 posted...</cite> <quote>Btw Nelson is within the .25% for an automatic hand recount in Florida. Oh God if Nelson somehow wins and Sinema somehow takes Arizona, Trump's "tremendous success" could be one Senate seat.</quote> Neither of those are that likely to happen, sadly. I feel like Im always the biggest downer in this topic. cue Debbie Downer trombone</quote> 538 is sticking firm with a +2 gain to Republicans in the Senate. That would mean 53-47 which would assume either a Sinema or Nelson win.</quote> That's because of probability. I'm too lazy to open 538 and check the exact numbers, but let's just say it pegs the R win at 60% in each. From a probability standpoint: Rs winning both: 36% Split: 48% Ds winning both: 16% The most likely outcome is split so it'd say R+2 but independently the odds would favor the R in both. Technically it'd be like R+2.25 or something but again, that would round to 2. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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