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Topic	A probability question
Zeus 08/25/18 7:38:59 PM #32:	MICHALECOLE posted... Zeus posted... No, the risk-to-reward ratio is too low. While the error rate is reasonably low, I'd lose everything if it fails in a deal that would only double my money. If I'm putting down $500, I'd want at least the chance of a tenfold return. 10% vs 90%? And the alternative is 1% vs 99%? No, I'd want the same odds. Keep in mind I'm the one putting up actual money and, if he's wrong, he still leaves with money. And, honestly, if I was the guy who found the rock, I'd probably take the $500 for it. The Popo posted... Im using ballpark figures here, but if 99% of the rocks are common, and the scanner misreads 10% of the common rocks as rare, then arent we looking at roughly 90% of the positive reads to be incorrect? Because say for simplicitys sake, every 100th rock you find has rare materials. That would mean the first 99 rocks are common. And the scanner would make the following reads: Rocks 1-10 = 1 false positive read Rocks 11-20 = 1 false positive read Rocks 21-30 = 1 false positive read Rocks 31-40 = 1 false positive read Rocks 41-50 = 1 false positive read Rocks 51-60 = 1 false positive read Rocks 61-70 = 1 false positive read Rocks 71-80 = 1 false positive read Rocks 81-90 = 1 false positive read Rocks 91-100 = 1 true positive read This is why I wish I had taken that statistics course. --- (\/)(\/)\|-\| There are precious few at ease / With moral ambiguities / So we act as though they don't exist. <cite>Zeus posted [p:907542726] in A probabil... [t:76935171]...</cite> <quote><cite>MICHALECOLE posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Zeus posted...</cite> <quote>No, the risk-to-reward ratio is too low. While the error rate is reasonably low, I'd lose everything if it fails in a deal that would only double my money. If I'm putting down $500, I'd want at least the chance of a tenfold return.</quote> 10% vs 90%? And the alternative is 1% vs 99%?</quote> No, I'd want the same odds. Keep in mind I'm the one putting up actual money and, if he's wrong, he still leaves with money. And, honestly, if I was the guy who found the rock, I'd probably take the $500 for it. <cite>The Popo posted...</cite> <quote>Im using ballpark figures here, but if 99% of the rocks are common, and the scanner misreads 10% of the common rocks as rare, then arent we looking at roughly 90% of the positive reads to be incorrect? Because say for simplicitys sake, every 100th rock you find has rare materials. That would mean the first 99 rocks are common. And the scanner would make the following reads: Rocks 1-10 = 1 false positive read Rocks 11-20 = 1 false positive read Rocks 21-30 = 1 false positive read Rocks 31-40 = 1 false positive read Rocks 41-50 = 1 false positive read Rocks 51-60 = 1 false positive read Rocks 61-70 = 1 false positive read Rocks 71-80 = 1 false positive read Rocks 81-90 = 1 false positive read Rocks 91-100 = 1 true positive read</quote> This is why I wish I had taken that statistics course. --- (\/)(\/)\|-\| There are precious few at ease / With moral ambiguities / So we act as though they don't exist. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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