LogFAQs > #978717508

AFC West Prediction

1. Portland Express
2. Denver Broncos
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

No team in this division offers the offensive and defensive certainties that we've come to expect over the past several seasons from the Express. This is an elite defensive team that brings back nine of its 11 starters with the replacements being a 1st round pick and a higher end free agent. 10 of its 16 games are against the NFC North and Broncos/Chiefs/Raiders, so it would be a shock if they didn't have another great defensive season. The reason why they finished just 7-9 last season (albeit with a division crown and playoff win) was because of their running game. HB Lamar Miller was injured and the team lacked depth to where they ultimately finished 32nd in rushing. That forced the team to pass more, definitely at the highest rate of any user team, which led to a bloated turnover total. Now the depth issues still remain, but it is slightly better to the point that we hopefully won't be seeing Freddie Timmerman of the 70 rating start any games. If the running game rises to even below average, I think that things will settle down for them and they will be one of the favorites for a playoff bye.

The Broncos are coming off of their worst season where their offense and defense were sort of a disaster. After a string of great seasons as an in-season injury signing, HB Melvin Gordon is getting the full-time gig, and the Broncos desperately need a reliable HB after having failed to replace LaMarcus Coker all those seasons ago. While QB Andrew Luck was solid, they trun to their first round pick from last season Aaron Ward. He had a ghastly 49% completion in limited time last season and a negative TD:INT ratio, but his YPA would have topped the league if spread out for a season, so he's intriguing, especially with the trio of WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Dwayne Allen, and #2 overall pick WR D.J. Moore. While not the elite unit from its heydey, the OL is still solid. The Broncos were one of the best defenses for a long time, but they slipped into the 20s last season, and you have to wonder if their poor offensive showing/poor luck were the main culprits based on their talent and players' histories. I'm definitely counting on some improvement there. The Broncos open the season with four straight divisional games and two more at home before the bye. Their only injury right now is their starting C, but they went and got a better one as a replacement. They are in a prime spot to get out of the gate with a great start. I think that they have the potential to get back the division crown, but if not, they should certainly be in the wild card discussion assuming they reach their bye with a winning record.

The Raiders were in terrible financial shape, and they had to let some people walk. It took some work, but they should still be reliable on defense with a great secondary and a front seven with plenty of stars to support their OLBs and nose tackle. The issue has been and still is the offense. Can QB DeShaun Gaines emerge as more than a game manager and can HB Chris Carson turn the corner in his third season after a lackluster start to his career? The investments in the OL have worked out in terms of their ratios, but the skill position players need make do on their Top 10 draft pedigrees. With the Broncos and Express both expected to regress toward the mean this season, it will be an uphill battle to compete for the division, but if Gaines or Carson emerge, then they can be a surprise team.

It feels like I always put the Chiefs last, and I don't really see why I wouldn't put them there again this season. To start off with the positives, their front seven is sneakily one of the best in the league. If your worst starter is DE Mitch Freeman, then I'd say that you're fine. They also leave the preseason with no injuries, and the schedule doesn't look too bad. Getting the Vikings and Dolphins on the road blows, but at least they get the Bengals and Packers at home. The OL has performed well enough, but the talent there is an issue, and with a bunch of dates with beefy DL, I'm worried about the impact that will have on the offense, which has taken a massive nosedive the past few seasons. Top 10 pick HB Nick Chubb is currently atop the depth chart, so it's safe to say that the running game will not be good this season, which puts the onus on QB A.J. McCarron building off of his great efficiency from last season (82.2 passer rating) while being more prolific (just 2053 yards in 16 starts, or 128 passing yards per game). The Chiefs have by far the longest playoff drought (made playoffs first two seasons, none since), but they've had several seasons where they were on the cusp, including last season when they led the division for most of the final stretch. Maybe they can compete again, but I'm just not confident about that.