LogFAQs > #977197323

SuperSaiyanTien posted...

Can I ask why you believe that?

Again, I'm not a Trump fan by any means but look at the data. In 2016, Trump only secured 46.1% of the popular vote and received *almost* 63 million votes. In 2020, Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote but received an extra 11 million votes (74 million total) which is huge when you consider that Obama, a popular president, received millions less votes his second term than his first.

In fact, we've seen previous Republican (unpopular) presidents get a huge jump during times of war I.E. see Bush in 2000 vs. Bush 2004. As messed up as it is, the war in Israel/Palestine might cause a surge of Independents to vote Republican.

I just don't think it's as cut/dry as some would want.

His vote count total increased from 2016 to 2020 solely due to mail-in voting and broadly increasing voting access nationwide, and for no other reason.

Everything since then has decreased his popularity as a whole. It's impossible to say if his base is even "energized" by his legal troubles (whereas it has hurt him everywhere else), but it doesn't matter - his base is smaller than Dem/independents, and will have depressed turnout in 2024 (on top of Dems already having superior turnout in Pres election years).

I'm more curious why anyone would thing he'd do BETTER this time around, since there's no reason to think this would be true, in any sense.