LogFAQs > #977062523

We've been chatting about the NYT/Siena poll in the discord but aside from some of the results being facially absurd (like Nevada being Trump+10) Nate Cohn (part of NYT Upshot) analyzed the results and quite literally the difference between the poll results and Biden 2020 is that there is a "Kamala holdout" group that if you put them back in Biden's column he leads 5 of the 6 swing states and leads likely voters across the 6 collectively by 2.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/upshot/polls-biden-trump-2024.html

There's a lot of breakdown in the article, but to keep on this point - when they polled Kamala against Trump she actually performed a point-and-a-half better against Trump (another result put me down for doubting) and when they followed-up with the Kamala voters found that 11% of them said they did not support Biden - and 2/3s of them were either nonwhite or under 30.

Basically, what the NYT/Siena poll shows is that while Biden has maintained his support with white voters from 2020, the sharp drop in this poll comes from his support from black, Hispanic, and under-30 voters dropping. If you move the Kamala-not-Biden supporters back to Biden he basically runs even (if a hair ahead) with the 2020 election results.

but also polls in 2023