LogFAQs > #975437803

hello this is a few days late because (a) life and (b) Trails but I have started compiling X-Stats for this contest! for new folks this is essentially a means to rank the songs based on "true" popularity regardless of how far they made it in the bracket, using the percentages each song got in their matches. (For example, Moonlight Concert beat Northeast Frost Street by far more than Origin, so the latter might be taken to be "stronger" even though it lost in round 1.) That said, it is not a perfect (or honestly even a necessarily good) means of prediction as strength is frequently intransitive, especially with a small voter base - mostly I am compiling these for fun because I think numbers are neat

Here's Bracket A! (The other three are still in progress.) The listed percentages are "what would this song be expected to get on Ragna Breakers if they faced":

1 Ragna Breakers 50.00%
2t Lost Forest 48.28%
2t SHININ QUEEN 48.28%
4 Crystal Caves 48.11%
5 Journey to Candle Hill 47.48%
6 Moonlight Concert 46.77%
7 Subterranean Sunrise 45.82%
8 Origin 45.40%
9 for you 44.92%
10 The Synapse Ambient 42.94%
11 Azure Archipelago 42.81%
12 J-E-N-O-V-A 42.18%
13 We Are Burning Rangers 42.00%
14 Wind Scene 41.58%
15 Kimigatame 2016 41.54%
16 Credits (Kirbys Dream Land 3) 41.36%
17 Crocus 40.77%
18 Purna 40.19%
19 Lost Painting 38.56%
20 World Vanquisher 38.29%
21 Beat the Diamonds 38.26%
22 Superior Probe Underworks Scenery 37.68%
23 KANNANSHINKU 37.55%
24 Underwater Lv. 1/4 37.43%
25 Bury the Light 37.18%
26 Windslash Steps 36.63%
27 escape 35.94%
28 NULL APOPHENIA 35.59%
29 Northeast Frost Street 35.48%
30 Baluchons 34.83%
31 Main Theme (Guardian Recall) 34.67%
32 Weapons Factory 34.66%
33 Nilah, the Joy Unbound 33.87%
34 Purple Town 33.68%
35 Samsara 33.11%
36 Utopia Shelter In the Depths 32.84%
37 Shushi ~ Set You Free 32.69%
38 Sky Land 32.62%
39 Layer Cake 32.03%
40 MNN+@0(Day) 31.94%
41 Techno Syndrome 31.74%
42 Alien 31.67%
43 One Who Bares Fangs at God 31.57%
44 Back 2 Back 30.72%
45 Vending Machine of Love 30.57%
46 What Im Made of 29.85%
47 Paranoid 29.83%
48 Immortal 29.35%
49 HODO 29.19%
50 Kobito of Shining Needle ~ Little Princess 28.64%
51 EXEC_DESPEDIA/. 28.08%
52 MOONMANs Fandango 27.72%
53 Hungary Atomic Era 27.16%
54 Menu (Kaze no Notam) 26.31%
55 The First Campaign 25.51%
56 Luma Pools 24.83%
57 Give it a Shot 24.46%
58 Temple of Drifting Sands 23.95%
59 Gnormans Theme 23.37%
60 Title BGM (LoZ) 22.36%
61 SINGI Remix 22.16%
62 Yeehaw DeliveryBoy 20.66%
63 Heal the World 19.03%
64 Vs. Gullveig 14.19%

Some notes:

-Ragna Breakers won its last four matches by 4 votes, 2 votes, 2 votes, and TB + 4 votes (which ends up functionally the same as 2 votes). In the grand scheme of things, those are all very close, and so those four of its opponents end up as very nearly the rest of the top 5. (This is probably an example of what I meant by popularity being intransitive - usually an indicator of a more polarizing song.)
-On a related note, yes, that is an exact tie for second - both Lost Forest and SHININ' QUEEN lost 28-30 to Ragna.
-As I suggested in my preamble, Origin losing by 2 votes to Moonlight Concert makes it look very good despite a round 1 loss. J-E-N-O-V-A, Kimigatame and KDL3 Credits are other round 1 losers that snuck into the top quarter.
-On the other hand, oof Northeast Frost Street. 22-36 is a pretty sizeable loss, and its entire division is stuck behind that, making them all look pretty bad (with NFS being the only one in the top half).

Ultimate Loser (aka the song farthest removed from the winner in terms of what it lost to):
Ragna Breakers > Moonlight Concert > Northeast Frost Street > Purple Town > Samsara > Techno Syndrome > MOONMAN's Fandango