LogFAQs > #973112095

Lopen posted...

If people are noticing things that are supposedly completely unlikely statistically often enough it becomes implausible to that it's a matter of Frequency illusion because even with biases you wouldn't have enough appearances of the rare event for people to notice it at that clip.

It's literally the exact opposite. You notice it more with extreme low or high frequencies.

The bigger effect imo is what I mentioned before, which is failing to do Bayesian analysis. It's not about how much Cosmo is being played, but about how much GIVEN that you played Wong.

The best analogy is with poker. People have been complaining for decades that every time they get aces, someone else gets trips. They just don't understand how statistically dependent those events are. So they accuse the dealer of rigging the game somehow. It's just funny seeing the exact same arguments with poker used for this game, as if they are new or not debunked.

Btw absolutely NOTHING in this world becomes implausible just because a few thousand humans subjectively feel a certain way. That's a super fucked up scientific method. But I guess it's a common idea.