LogFAQs > #965727447

Kirby321 posted...

Because that has to be true for a scenario where I'm scum. Think about it. If I, the alleged Scum Watcher, chose to watch Chris N2, what would my objective be? Chris lead the lynch on two scum members. He would be an obvious nightkill target. Who would want to target him on the town side? Protection roles.

If Ulti wasn't a protection role of some sort, why would he have visited Chris? If I weren't initially a dumbass and thought Ulti had malicious intents, then the clear answer was that Ulti protected Chris. But perhaps it was a good thing I was aggressive toward Ulti at first, as the scum didn't seem to suspect him at all as Doctor until he claimed.

I'll concede that Ulti didn't exactly look very good, even after his Doctor claim when Sbell and I were on his tail. So yeah, he could've been a mislynch target. But with Sheep's poison gone and Isquen's back-up power gone, why risk keeping the doctor alive if they knew who he was? Even if he was a decent mislynch option, getting a kill blocked while their numbers were dwindling after Isquen's lynch would have been very, very bad. After all, scum's strongman options (i.e., the poisons) were gone going into N5 (a Star Wars night where Tracker Hb was getting permanently roleblocked), yet Sultan was the one killed instead of the one who scum should have reasonably known was Doctor.

It absolutely doesn't have to be true. I get that it's the most obvious answer and you haven't been my first target at any point partially because it seemed unlikely, but now there are only the unlikely things left that we have to try and make sense of. Sultan wasn't that bad a kill either, he was also a tracker and had already targeted one of you, just not whoever sent the kills, which would probably be Isquen on odd nights early. Sultan was then killed as soon as kills couldn't go undetected on those nights any longer. I think a the scum dead down a few members early on took some chances here and really needed to avoid being scanned. It obviously paid off. Though if you're not scum, then they for some reason banked on you never hitting correctly for so long, which makes little sense to me.

Kirby321 posted...

Plum backed off after I claimed Watcher. If I were scared about Plum being spot-on about me, I'd be far more worried about Chris thinking I was scum after the gladiator match. If you ask me, scum killed Plum because I was so sure about Plum being town. I mean, this was the case from Day 1, but if I knew somebody watched Chris (and if I were smart enough to realize from the get-go that the "somebody" was protection), would it not be unreasonable to assume it was somebody I wasn't willing to lynch? But there's no substantial proof for either of our theories anyway.

Plum changed his vote to not risk it but sais he didn't think he was buying into it. Then said he was on the fence.

Kirby321 posted...

I bring up a counterpoint to your "killing Doctor is a risky gambit" argument: Doppelganger. I posited before that Lea was the one who killed Ulti, but in hindsight, after reading MZero's flip again, it is very much a good thing that I did not watch Ulti that night. It's obvious now that the plan was for MZero to impersonate somebody else, and if I watched Ulti, I wouldn't have seen MZero visiting him. I would've seen his Doppeltarget instead.

Killing Doctor was 100% risk-free there and was actually the ideal gambit for scum to make in that scenario if I had played smartly.

Yeah, I'll give you this one, I hadn't read that properly enough to realize it was also like that for the night kill. It doesn't really change too much but I agree MZero most likely sent in all the odd night kills.

Kirby321 posted...

In any case, Chris has opened the floor to questions. If you think it's possible for Chris to be scum, then investigate. You are asserting that you don't think Chris is town for sure, but you have brought up nothing to support that claim. All you've said is, "Chris, if you're scum, this has been a master play from your end". Yet your theories about me being scum also require complicated and convoluted plans to play out just right. Especially, you know, claiming Watcher D3 if I had knowledge of Doppelganger's description and not expecting to get countered.

Don't worry about me voting before I've considered both cases carefully. That last sentence is the best case you have, probably, though at that point scum was fully aware that there were two flavor scanners at least. It's a big reason I thought of alignment switch. That and how weird Anakin Skywalker as a prequel specific town role is.

Kirby321 posted...

Really, Death's death doesn't make much sense in general. Doctor protection should have been a threat. And even if MZero was the one who carried out the kill, why would they bother redirecting me if MZero could have framed somebody else? If Isquen poisoned Death and I saw him do it, that's a death sentence for Isquen. But then why would anybody besides MZero carry out the crime?

Frankly, I know I was redirected. I don't know why, but I know Isquen used his back-up ability on me to redirect to JC. Otherwise, why would I have any reason to target JC N4?

You're right that MZero most likely did this, I don't see why he wouldn't either. Watching JC as scum wouldn't be weird to me, he was a pretty obvious scan target at that point I think.