LogFAQs > #962874661

The_Viscount posted...

tbh, those claims are generally going to be Western fear-mongering in attempt to justify support. A takeover of Kiev has always been absurdly unlikely.

I agree: entering into brutal urban warfare does not appear to be in Putin's best interest.

Unbridled9 posted...

I disagree with point 2. I feel he's likely either to claim the region then, when Kiev attacks, claim they were being hostile and aggressive and needed to be 'pacified' or something. Alternatively, he'll keep finding 'pro-Russia citizens' that need to be 'rescued' or whatever until there's no more Ukraine left. Then it will be on to, likely, Poland in so far as Europe is concerned (though I expect him to work on the asian nations first).

See above. I agree that he'll keep finding areas to complain about and shift attention over time, but I believe he will continue to take slow bites over time (and create buffer/rump states dependent on Russia) without initiating major war. His "hand" isn't good enough to undergo sustained urban warfare and resistance movements as would happen with somewhere like Kiev.

Anyways, in the long run none of this does anything good for Russia: it keeps them a semi-pariah on the world stage and gets them...what? Occupation over a couple areas with few resources? It may or may not help keep Putin in power and satisfy his/their need to feel powerful, which is certainly his main concern...but it's a bad deal for Russia. Point being: this is counterproductive and they can't keep acting like this forever. (Although they can keep doing it for the foreseeable short term future if they prefer feeling powerful to economic activity)