LogFAQs > #962867432

Here's how this will go:
1) Putin wasn't going to put all of that on the border and do nothing: it would look like he backed down.
2) If he were going to attack Kiev he'd be doing it now
3) Putin has to know that internal Russian support for what he is doing would ebb quickly if Russia took many casualties attacking Ukraine. Russians can see what's going on.
4) Therefore, this is the "big move"...and it probably ends here militarily after a lot of yelling and sanctions. Given that Russia already occupies these areas there shouldn't be a huge battle.
5) The sanctions will be harder to implement and maintain given that these chunks are less important, frankly, than Crimea. Given everything said over the winter they will certainly be placed, but they will fade away after the world's attention shifts and someone sees a need to extend an olive branch to Russia. Putin/Russia will survive with China's help for those few years.
6) So...this will feel a lot like the Crimea episode after a few years. Maybe he'll bite off another chunk in a few more years if it suits him politically. Or maybe he'll infiltrate Ukraine's elections and get someone elected that he likes. Or maybe someone in Russia will actually figure out how to topple him.

He's accomplished what he claimed to want in the Russian media (protection for the theoretically oppressed Russians) and defied the West. Politically that's what he wanted to do.