LogFAQs > #886143067

so the problem directly stems from the fact that hearthstones player base is big enough to create a situation where even with low offer rates, insane decks are being REGULARLY drafted and put into the arena match making pool.

95% of the time you will draft a deck in the 67-69 range

Some outliers will draft decks as low as the the 60-63 range
Some outliers will draft decks in the 73+ range, apparently as high as 80 or above in some cases

Okay so what does this mean exactly?

1. The opponent you face a 0-0 or the opponent you face at 6-2 are statistically likely to not be all that different. If most players in the pool have decks within the same range this makes every match from 1 to 12 feel exactly the same. There's no sense that matches get harder or that you're facing progressively higher decks. Except...

2. Player B, who drafts the 73+ deck, will now completely godstomp the rest of the field and walk to victory without stopping. This means progressively insane decks will PERSIST in the meta, while the average decks are killed off. Either through bad play or bad luck.

This means that your chance of facing an INSANE deck at 0-0 is relatively high, because of the high deck variance in the meta. I'm not likely to have an insane deck, but there's enough players out there that have one that it's reasonable that I might face somebody with one even at low wins. Furthermore, if you play with a high level of skill and progress, you won't see your opponents progressively getting more challenging. Instead what you'll see is a series of games that come down to draw RNG because of similar deck quality, where your skill MIGHT matter but only in cases where your draw RNG is relatively even. And, unfortunately, you'll just walk into a crazy deck and get slaughtered about 40% of the time.

That's not all. The 40% number is based off of my OWN statistics, and I'm an average arena player. For a more skilled player they will be going deeper into runs more frequently. This will make them even MORE likely to face insane decks as they get to higher matches. Rather than the steady curve of ramping up against opponents on a similar powerlevel you simply crapshoot against a field where your first and your last match have good odds to feel exactly the same, but you can additionally lose any given game along the road by pure dumb bad luck. And if you are a good player you are PUNISHED because you eventually will get fed to luckier players that just happened to draft insane decks.

So how can you guarantee a better success rate in this kind of arena meta? Actually... you can't. The only way to guarantee a high number of wins on any given run is to draft an insane deck. This will happen about 5% of the time, with no input from yourself. It just happens or it doesn't. Because the good cards are all locked behind reduced draft rates.
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