LogFAQs > #982625528

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

For reference: Ralston is by far the most reliable source for Nevada early voting information and most of his predictions have shaken out. We're a ways away from a call, but there is no modern precedence for the GOP's current lead in votes banked in the state, and the vast majority of votes are tallied before election day in the state. It isn't critical to Harris winning the presidency in most scenarios, but it could signal trouble in demographically similar Sunbelt states and potential alarm bells for senate races.

Some summaries, though I recommend reading the blog:

The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.

It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.

In case you have forgotten, turnout on Election Day 2020 was only 11 percent, and Republicans won by 11 points, or nearly 16,000 votes. Thats why the Dems building up a big statewide lead has been so important and helped them win presidential races for four straight cycles. Will the pattern hold this cycle? Will Election Day be a GOP landslide? Too early to tell.

The all-important Clark County firewall is under 9,000 votes, about a fourth of what it was in 2020 at this time. (Apples to oranges warning, but that is a big change.) This is what I wrote at this time in 2020: This year, after two days, 137,000 have cast mail and in-person ballots in Clark, and the lead is nearly double 2016 in raw numbers, although the percentages are not as different: 53 percent to 26 percent.

This is all a big contrast to Dems nearing firewall numbers needed to win PA and the lethargic returns from the GOP in that state so far. (https://x.com/blockedfreq < has good posts on PA)