LogFAQs > #978868478

Red: Red is ultra confirmed giga town. In truth, he's the ONLY player left that can be considered 100% town. Not only did he know about the strongman kill beforehand but is also confirmed to have fired a vig shot when Death had the extra kill for scum. I expect he will die tonight though, so this analysis is probably not that useful.

JC: JC is 99.9999% town. aside from being obviously town from day 1, sultan surely didn't give scum an unethical mayor which (in some ways) could function as an extra kill.

Next let's discuss the possibility of a godfather. Odds on this seem pretty high still, because town has two scanners. It's a little strange for Bart to be godfather and not Homer, but certainly not out of the question. It also helps to explain why Wallz was the kill last night.
If every player remaining scans as their actual claim (i.e. 6 town and 1 Flavor Godfather), then Lea's role is useless moving forward. They have no way to stop Red from killing a vanilla last night anyway, so as long as he doesn't have a second vig shot (safe assumption) and can't heal himself (another safe assumption), there's no additional value to his role being alive for another day.
But killing Wallz actually does achieve something meaningful; it adds Ulti back into the POE. At this point, from my stance, it's close to certainty that there's only one scum left. And if that's the case, seeing someone die and Ulti still not move confirms him as 100% town. Killing Wallz ensures that doesn't happen.

With that being said, the calculus makes Ulti almost assuredly town, though it's slightly dependent on whether Sultan allows a scum player n1 to use an ability and deliver a kill at the same time. You see, with Ctes dead, the scum team makeup/action grid looks like:

Corrik (n1 rolecop something)
Death (poison me? or poison instantly healed by doctor?)
Godfather (delivers kill)

Unless Death was saving the poison for night 4 (very unlikely), corrik delivered the kill and a role cop at the same time (bad game mechanics), or a 5th scum player (seems not possible anymore), it must have been the Godfather delivering the kill. And we know Ulti didn't do that. So let's take him out of the POE too. Godfather Ninja be damned.

Next is Ben. Ben is flavor scanned, which is all well and good except that there's probably a godfather remaining, so that doesn't really mean anything for him. And frankly if you're banking on me being Bart, bulletproof godfather disguised as ralph wiggum town bp then you might as well bank on Ben being Hans "Bart" Moleman, old man vanilla. This is for sure the direction I would go today, if I am by some miracle allowed to live, or tomorrow after you see my flip.

Then comes SBell. I still don't feel as though there's much going for SBell. Apparently was so disappointed at being Peter Griffin in a Simpsons game that he decided, more or less, to give up from the beginning. My theory kind of lost a lot of steam after Homer flipped though, it doesn't make all that much sense for Bart to be Peter Griffin, although Bart is quite the prankster. *Shrugs* If Ben is town too probably just kill this guy idk. In a final three, DEFINITELY KILL SBELL OVER ULTI EVERY TIME.

And last of all is Lea. Oh, sweet Lea, how you have turned on me in the blink of an eye.
The biggest note I have about Lea is that if you believe strongly that SBell is town, you should seriously consider lynching Lea with 5 remaining. And if there is by some chance, two scum remaining, Lea is basically guaranteed to be one of them. But that's beside the point, really. Here's the case for Lea being scum. It only requires her to fake one scan, and she doesn't even have to fake it until Day 4.
Lea actually did not clarify how her role worked until day 4 - she merely reiterated that she scanned Red and that Red was town. Something easily fakeable for scum. The other major point in her favor is identifying Red's flavor before he did. And there's a small gambit here, but it's really not as big of a stretch as you might think. Red claimed vig on day 1, and most people didn't know whether it was a real claim or not. Very possible scum would choose to rolecop him n1 and discover he's a Vigilante/Doctor or whatever the exact role name will be.
And I think pretty much anybody familiar enough with the Simpsons could guess which doctor that would be, flavor-wise.

Now the downsides of this theory of course are that, if scum found out red was a Vig / Doctor, why would they not kill him earlier? To that question, I don't have really have a good answer. In my view, scum made some strange choices this game, like janitoring kirby and killing lopen n1. Maybe they knew he would eventually shoot town vanilla. who knows?

tl;dr: kill Ben next. then kill Sbell (if you trust Lea) or Lea (if you trust Sbell). Then kill the other one. Ulti being godfather ninja should be much less likely than any Ben, Sbell, or Lea scenario. Especially since by design he ought not to be delivering three of the kills.

next, i'll write a short defense for myself, open myself up to any questions you folks might have, and post some final simpsons memes before I either chang your minds or resign to my death and join the comrades of the DTC.