Just watched the episode again. Going to post some random analysis stuff about the chances of winning:
High Chances
Jonas - The focus on him was unusual. They made a point to show him when they didn't need to. As long as he doesn't end up being a narrator, I think he's got one of the best shots. He even complimented Leif, who didn't receive much focus himself, which I believe also happened with Fabio saying something like that about Kelly B (due to her early boot of course. If they don't want us to like someone who they consider sympathetic due to an early exit, they'll make us like the person who sympathizes with them). I'm definitely keeping my eye on him.
Kim - The most dynamically developed of the women. She gave her opinions about numerous situations, weighing the pros and cons. She wants to go along with where the power is for now, because she knows it's smart, even though she said she doesn't really want to. I feel like she is being built as a smart player, and one for us to like. She could also be someone who jumps ship, ruining the game for numerous people, including herself. But I'm leaning more towards a long lasting player, and potential winner.
Jay - His edit was a little weird. He was in the group of 4 guys who were portrayed negatively, but he had his own thing going. He wasn't shown as really bad like Matt. He wasn't shown as devious like Michael. He wasn't ignored like Bill. There seems to be a reason why they showed him, but I'm not sure what it was. But it feels like he's someone who is going to last.
Average Chances
Troyzan - Hard to say. I think the next episode will be the most telling for him. He could still go into over the top mode, and become a huge character, who obviously won't win. But if he doesn't, I think it means he'll either get screwed over later, or be the winner, depending on the tone he gets with his underplayed antics. We'll see soon enough.
Monica - Was shown as positive, and got some focus, but doesn't seem to be a great spot in her tribe at the moment. Can't say.
Chelsea - I feel like she's supposed to be shown as positive, even though the content of much of her dialogue feels very double standard to me. Like if a guy said half the things she said, he'd be a villainous pig. But that doesn't change the fact that she's someone that we are supposed to root for. I don't buy her chances though. She's a physically strong female portrayed positively, but that happens a lot. Her chances are average.
Michael - Seems like he'll be one of the strategic forces of the season. I'm thinking something like Jim from last season, with a similar finishing position. Possibly the male villain of the season. But he could overcome this and be a game bot. I'm doubting it, but it's out there.
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