Looking at your Oracle percentage for this match, you basically just used Mario vs Link from 2002 as your prediction for this match.
To me that screams out that you didn't "get" that Mario was stronger in this format so obviously you're going to fight adjusting him up significantly every step of the way.
So what I'm saying is you're trying too hard to make this contest line up with previous contests, not realizing it is in fact a different format.
(No, don't look at my Oracle prediction, I put Mario vs Bowser trying to hype an upset)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!