Lurker > charmander6000

Solid Snake - 54.45%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 55.82%
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CBX - Today's Winners: Cloud and Crono

Solid Snake
Sonic
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CBX - Today's Winners: Cloud and Crono

Damn, so close.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Match CXXIII: (4) Cloud Strife vs. (3) Alucard

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Cloud Strife - 2013
Round 1: 66.06% against Prinny (23.61%) and Senator Steven Armstrong (10.33%)
Round 2: 49.47% against Frog (27.74%) and Lugia (22.79%)
Round 3: 41.94% against Squirtle (41.94%) and Leon Kennedy (15.15%)

Alucard
Defeated Princess Peach, 56.81% - 43.19%
Defeated Yuna, 59.62% - 40.38%
Defeated Kefka, 59.44% - 40.56%
Defeated Pokemon Trainer Red, 53.81% - 46.19%

Analysis

Alucards plan of winning a division has come to fruition and while he had to go through multiple Nintendo and Square characters his journey on the winners bracket ends here. While I am willing to give him full credit for his performances, they werent exactly Noble Nine slaying performances. I expect him to have a relative respectable loss.

With Final Fantasy VII looking decent, I think any prospect of Cloud dropping has gone out the window. The caveat is that it doesnt look like Final Fantasy VII has increased too much, with most numbers placing them between their 2010 and 2013 stats. This could be an issue for Cloud in future matches. Cloud does have the potential Smash Bros. boost to look forward to, but that could amount to very little given that most characters remaining also have ties to Super Smash Bros. 4 and Ultimate.

charmander6000s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Big Boss

charmander6000s Prediction: Cloud Strife wins, 63.26% - 36.74%




Match CXXIV: (5) Crono vs. (4) Bowser

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Crono - 2013
Round 1: 63.00% against Missile (19.26%) and Sarah Kerrigan (17.74%)
Round 2: 40.42% against Pikachu (47.07%) and Magus (12.51%)

Bowser
Defeated Gordon Freeman, 77.39% - 22.61%
Defeated Charizard, 56.55% - 43.45%
Defeated 2B, 58.19% - 41.81%
Defeated Kirby, 53.86% - 46.14%

Analysis

I was a big proponent of Chrono Trigger characters receiving a boost this contest. For the most part, that prediction has come true, however, it wasnt by as much as I thought. The good news for Crono is it likely pushes him away from the elite character nipping on the heels of the lower ranked Noble Nine characters. Also, it helps that being only equal to Pikachu is looking pretty good right now.

For the most part, Bowser did his job to win his division, but it was nothing special. If Crono continued decreasing in strength I would give Bowser a chance for the upset, but I dont feel that is the case.

charmander6000s Bracket: Crono > Bowser

charmander6000s Prediction: Crono wins, 55.78% - 44.22%
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Quarter on (4) Cloud Strife (-26)
Quarter on (5) Crono (-5)
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Cloud Strife - 63.26%
Crono - 55.78%
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Cloud
Crono
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

snake_5036 posted...

charmander6000 posted...

7. Dante - 36:1

I want to travel to this alternative dimension where Dante is part of the NN instead of Sonic :(

The Noble Nine was created in 2003. Sonic was almost not even part of it with people only having eight or Magus instead of Sonic (or the NN+Magus). Sonic reaching the quarterfinals and being part of the 2002 contest was ultimately the deciding factor.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

STElNER posted...

charmander6000 posted...

1. Mario - 6:1
2. Solid Snake - 8:1
3. Link - 9:1
3. Sephiroth - 9:1
5. Cloud - 14:1
6. Crono - 33:1
7. Dante - 36:1
7. Samus - 36:1
9. Mega Man - 45:1
9. Sonic - 45:1

boy did dante ever shit the bed

I remember Crono/Dante being the most hyped match of the second round, especially since the winner was surely going to defeat Lara Croft.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

LordOfDabu posted...

My (very hazy and probably wrong) memory had CJayC's topic listing Mario and Link as first and second respectively on odds while the vibe from board posters was that Sephiroth and Snake were the favorites. There were some who thought Mario would lose the first round due to people not taking it seriously ("joke voting") and there was widespread debate on what the actual wording of the poll would be.

This is probably all false but it's what I remember.

The odds are listed on gamefaqscontests.com in the 2k2 x-stats section

Here are the odds for the top 10 characters

1. Mario - 6:1
2. Solid Snake - 8:1
3. Link - 9:1
3. Sephiroth - 9:1
5. Cloud - 14:1
6. Crono - 33:1
7. Dante - 36:1
7. Samus - 36:1
9. Mega Man - 45:1
9. Sonic - 45:1
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Mario was the favourite to win the contest in 2002, but the board's favourite was Sephiroth > Solid Snake.

Regardless, the original noble nine (fab five?) was Mario, Cloud, Solid Snake, Link and Sephiroth, everyone else was considered to be at least a step lower.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Pikachu will take the lead in a few updates, at this rate.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Lopen posted...

charmander6000 posted...

SFF with LFF. Pikachu got 44.13% against Luigi and 37.49% against Samus, that's hardly SFF.

37% on Samus absolutely is when he got like 46% on Crono the round before. Pikachu was actually strong in 2008. 2007, I'll admit maybe a bit mixed and skewed from the sprite round but yeah.

I don't see much of an issue with that. Crono was kind of weak, he let Zero get 47% in 2007 and given that he went even with Vincent in both years, it's doubtful his strength was much different between the two. Heck Link still broke 60% on Crono despite both Mario and Samus being in the poll.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Nanis23 posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

"SFF" should join "fraud" as a word that needs to be used less.

It's too broad
It can apply to characters from the same game, same series, same company, same fucking console
It isn't wrong by definition...it's just too broad

This issue is that people forget the "disproportionate" part of SFF.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Lopen posted...

Pokemon avoids being SFFed by avoiding the guys that can do it to them and by having weird ass momentum/rallies when they can be in the case of Charizard and Mewtwo.

Compare Pikachu's runs in 2007 and 2008 before and after he meets Nintendo characters and watch him tumble to the bottom of the pecking order pretty hard despite outperforming others like Luigi in that contest. Saying Pikachu is immune is incorrect.

I think you are confusing SFF with LFF. Pikachu got 44.13% against Luigi and 37.49% against Samus, that's hardly SFF.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Lopen posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Mega Man SFFing Yoshi proves nothing

It proves he can SFF the dude Pikachu couldn't really freakin hard when firing on all cylinders.

If he was as strong as normal he should be able to SFF Pikachu too. Pokemon isn't immune to SFF.

When was Pokemon SFF'd? It's well known that Pokemon avoids SFF quite well.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Mega Man SFFing Yoshi proves nothing
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

It makes sense that Pikachu/Pokemon would be strong on GameFAQs, especially once everyone got over the "it's cool to hate it" fad. The series is one of Nintendo's corner stones and unlike Animal Crossing it's also geared towards users that frequent GameFAQs.

Now Samus being this strong has always confused me, I always felt she should be closer to Kirby tier than Mario tier on the Nintendo totem pole.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Mario does okay in Europe, but he's definitely weaker. There's a reason why Nintendo characters had a strong ASV and it's not only because of the kiddies.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

The United States had one language, was one country, had a huge population and had an appetite for Japanese products.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

4428
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Mega Man back in the lead
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Woah there Link...

I didn't know board 8 was full of Ganondorf fanboys...
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Pikachu isn't done yet...
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Should be 7358 and 7359
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Yeah, Zelda was brought back down to Earth after Aerith, but I'd still give her a good chance at the upset.

It also helps Sonic that Knuckles/Shadow/Tails performed well in the contest. We'll get a better look after Sonic/Auron.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Quarter on (1) Link (-66)
Quarter on (8) Mega Man (-6)
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Match CXXI: (1) Link vs. (4) Ganondorf

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Link - 2013
Round 1: 72.67% against Isaac (15.36%) and Tingle (11.97%)
Round 2: 60.05% against Raiden (22.09%) and Yoshi (17.86%)
Round 3: 44.02% against Draven (44.65%) and Commander Shepard (11.34%)

Ganondorf
Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40%
Defeated Chun-Li, 58.91% - 41.09%
Defeated Dante, 56.40% - 43.60%
Defeated Vivi, 51.96% - 48.04%

Analysis

After a break we are back and now the big hitters are here. Ganondorfs reward for winning his division is to face Link, a bit cruel. We all saw what happened in 2004 where Link SFF Ganondorf so badly that he ended up with a lower direct percentage than CATS. The only debate in this match is whether or not Link can repeat that feat.

Despite Breath of the Wild I feel Link will not reach those numbers. While Link has built some distance between himself and the number two in this site, the rest of the field has gotten closer to him. Before it was only Cloud and Sephiroth that could break 40% on him, now I can see around half a dozen characters that could break 40% before SFF and a lot more that could avoid getting doubled. Link is still the dominant force, but he isnt quite that dominant.

This has also weakened his ability to SFF Nintendo characters. In 2013, Tingle held up rather well though you could argue that he benefitted from joke votes. Yoshi went from 18.26% in 2004 to 22.93% in 2013. I still expect quite a beating, just not as badly. At least for Ganondorf hell have the losers bracket to save his (adjusted) x-stat value.

charmander6000s Bracket: Link > Ganondorf

charmander6000s Prediction: Link wins, 85.74% - 14.26%




Match CXXII: (8) Mega Man vs. (7) Pikachu

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Mega Man - 2013
Round 1: 55.28% against Magikarp (31.98%) and Geno (12.74%)
Round 2: 56.67% against Jill Valentine (23.08%) and Kratos (20.25%)
Round 3: 40.21% against Charizard (40.17%) and Zero (19.62%)
Round 4: 33.32% against Samus Aran (38.48%) and Pokemon Trainer Red (28.20%)

Pikachu
Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59%
Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59%
Defeated Yoshi, 54.80% - 45.20%
Defeated Zero, 56.56% - 43.44%

Analysis

Ive been getting that close, but not enough vibe in this match. Pikachu had a great contest so far and has placed himself into the conversation of being the strongest non-Noble Nine character. While other Pokemon characters were unsurprisingly brought back down to Earth, Pikachu maintained his performances from 2010 and 2013. Sadly, when I look at his performances against Yoshi and Zero, I can see Mega Man doing at least just as good as Pikachu did.

One idea that has been floating around since 2005 was that Pikachu and the other division winners have had time to build momentum while the Elite Eight characters are starting off cold. I dont think thats going to be true outside of rare cases like Charizard in 2010 or even Geralt here where they were already getting a bandwagon effect. Plus, the six-day break has likely killed any minor momentum the characters may have built. If there is some kind of an effect, I could see it effecting the winner of this match.

charmander6000s Bracket: Mega Man > Yoshi

charmander6000s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 53.63% - 46.37%
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Link - 85.74%
Mega Man - 53.63%
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Link
Mega Man
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Corrik posted...

A murderer is a hypocrite for complaining someone murdered someone.

Correct
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Corrik posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Same way you pay other dancers when you watch their performances.

How is that

By paying admission

Hope you were just trolling with that question and are not totally inept with social engagements.

As for your question, no because that's not what "hypocrites" mean. A murderer isn't a hypocrite for complaining that someone stole his stuff.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Same way you pay other dancers when you watch their performances.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

I followed you, it was a great read.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

I could see pity votes being a factor in repeat matches, say a character got SFF in the first match, but the rematch has the character winning by less. Of course, that probably won't change the winner of any matches and may only be a factor in matches where the winner won by a lot already.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Outside of nostalgia the remakes are better than the originals among all Pokemon games.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Character of the decade

2B for champion?
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

red sox 777 posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300.

What? So you're saying a 1/127 chance has happened in 2 out of 9 contests?

~1/300, but yes. Looks like we've been (un)lucky.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Again, I'm not claiming that a character has a 1/127 chance at winning (aka beating Link) via rallying, I'm saying the combined chances for all characters to beating Link in a contest via rallying is 1/127. Though to be fair that is only one sample, using multiple samples (10 contests) it's closer to 1/300.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

I mean there was a 1/127 chance of any character that could defeat Link through rallying, if you only consider 2007.

It's similar for all characters, rallying is unlikely outside of small ones in close matches which Link typically won't be part of one.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

That is the entire field in terms of rallying, am I missing someone?
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

In 2007 L-Block was the only character to get a rally strong enough to defeat Link (1/127 chance)
In 2013 Draven, Mewtwo and Solid Snake got rallies strong enough to defeat Link, though the later two was only a result of Draven, but let's keep them (3/242 chance)
The other 7 contests had no rallies strong enough to defeat Link (0/577 chance)

Even if you throw in characters that might be legitimate stronger than Link (Cloud, Sephiroth, Solid Snake, Crono), I still stand by my 99% chance of Link victory.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256

Yeah, I still stand by my 99% chance.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man
Score: 196/256