Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

SSJBGenkiDama posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

64, of course. Then Sunshine, then 3D Land, then Galaxy 1, then Odyssey and 3D World because I haven't played them.

I honestly don't understand how Galaxy 2 is winning this. I mean, I'm assuming 3D World is probably ass as well because it's an early WiiU game so it's bound to be filled with more awful motion control gimmicks, but I can't imagine even that being as bad as Galaxy 2.

Hi...

How's it going.

While I don't personally think it's the second/third best game of all time. By composite score SMG2 is only behind OoT and BotW. (And after this maybe Odyssey... who knows). Either way, it had beyond amazing reviews and in fact for about 2 weeks it was the highest rated game ever...

SO yeah. Not "understanding" how a composite top 3 scored game ever could be winning is kinda on you more than anyone else.

I'm not understanding your post. "Composite Score"? You need to explain what you're talking about. I suspect it involves critics, which clearly doesn't imply actual gamers' opinions because it's pure Nintendo and we all know that classic Square would be ahead of most Nintendo games that aren't OoT.

Stop half-quoting meaningless numbers at me.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Leonhart4 posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Leonhart4 posted...

Because you have bad taste in video games

Good, the easy cop-out answer.

At least I'm not Chuggaaconroy whose favorite Mario is Sunshine.

Because it's a waste of time to try to have an actual discussion with you

I don't see how you're any better, constantly acting as if your opinions are hard fact.

Admittedly I'm mostly trying to get a rise out of you guys because it's stupidly fun.

I honestly wish that someone who's actually respected on this board had the guts to say this. No offense, but your reputation is even worse than mine.

Though I'm still trying to figure out why he still hasn't ignored you when he's ignored me for ages.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Leonhart4 posted...

I don't ever act like that unless I'm just messing around actually (like right now)

But thanks for admitting you're just trolling and thus verifying my statement that trying to have a real conversation with you is a waste of time

I don't see how half the board is any different, including you. You admitted you're just messing around, so am I.

I'm not! But thanks again for exposing Leonhart's lack of reading comprehension. Seriously, Leonhart, you're insufferable.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

64, of course. Then Sunshine, then 3D Land, then Galaxy 1, then Odyssey and 3D World because I haven't played them.

I honestly don't understand how Galaxy 2 is winning this. I mean, I'm assuming 3D World is probably ass as well because it's an early WiiU game so it's bound to be filled with more awful motion control gimmicks, but I can't imagine even that being as bad as Galaxy 2.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I read through until I get to something I want to respond to and respond to it, and keep going and adding on more things.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I missed last night's scores. Love seeing FSU get pummeled like that. (Reminder that FSU was literally the preseason #3.)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Someone in Columbus didn't do the research for their sign. Playing as Jigglypuff is something only expert Smashers do (though the fact that the sign hyphenates Jigglypuff's name without actually starting a new line tells me as much; the name sounds "soft")
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

ACC: FSU (-4)
American: SMU (-9.5)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (-26.5)
Big 12: TCU (-7)
C-USA: Florida Atlantic (-7)
MAC: Northern Illinois (-7.5)
MWC: San Diego State (-9.5)
Pac-12: Washington (-18)
SEC: Kentucky (-3.5)
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (-8)

I listed all the spreads I found mostly for my own convenience, but also in case some of them flip.

A lot of the G5 conferences really don't have many options without spending a double-digit or taking an underdog. You'd need at least 3 conferences all with double-digit spreads in conference play to pick an underdog on the spread anywhere, so you otherwise need both a largely predictable week and some luck in the double-digit picks to avoid upsets. That or be incredibly bold in some picks.

(And that's assuming I'm remembering that exception correctly and that it's still applicable. It's not written currently.)

Oh, yes, you're right! I forgot about the safety exception I made when I was reconstructing from scratch after the unfortunate purge.

Yes, you're absolutely right. If at least three conferences have no games with single-digit spreads, or at least two conferences have no games with spreads under 20 points, you're allowed to pick an underdog to merely cover the spread in one of those conferences. Though I fully expect that won't be an issue outside of conference championship week. Hmm, now I want to speculate...

ACC: Too early to speculate. Clemson-NC State is at the latter, so that game could go either way, and that changes who plays in the game.
American: Well, the East winner will probably host, so this could be a double-digit spread. Probably shouldn't be one, though, so that might be a decent pick for the underdog cover if needed.
Big Ten: I doubt this will be a double-digit spread.
Big 12: Too early to speculate; half the conference still control their own destinies. Let's try again after Saturday, since the loser of OK State-WVU loses control of their own destiny and assuming TCU beats ISU, the Cyclones would too.
C-USA: Marshall will likely be a double-digit favorite, possibly even a 20+, but they only need to get upset once at the right time to miss it entirely--FAU hasn't lost a conference game yet, either.
MAC: See Big 12. Both divisions have a tie for first place and a third-place team one game back that has yet to play either first-place team. So who knows who will be in that game.
MWC: I don't foresee a double-digit favorite, no matter who makes it.
Pac-12: See Big 12 and MAC. No one is unbeaten in conference, but half of them have just one loss-- most of them to one of the one-loss teams in the opposite division, with the few that lost in division having done so to teams with no other conference wins. So while certain teams are at disadvantages if the triangles come down 1-1-1, all six control their own destinies.
SEC: Alabama always has the potential to be a double-digit favorite, even against Georgia, but the "neutral site" of the SEC Championship Game favors Georgia so maybe the Bulldogs can manage to only be single-digit underdogs.
Sun Belt: Lacks a conference championship game, so there will still be a full slate of games.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Actually, the line on WSU-UA is surprisingly close. I can't help but wonder if I'm walking into a trap...

Level 7:
ACC: Miami (20.5-point favorite)
American: SMU
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas
C-USA: Marshall (17-point favorite)
MAC: Northern Illinois
MWC: San Diego State
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: South Carolina
Sun Belt: Appalachian State

Still, there weren't really any good options in the ACC or C-USA, so looks like I need to avoid the typical Pac-12 upset.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Level 7:
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:
5tarscream

Level 5:
Paratroopa1

Level 4:
KCF0107

Level 3:
jcgamer107

Marquee games:
Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ West Virginia (O/U 73.5)
Penn State (+6.5) @ Ohio State (O/U 55)
TCU (-6.5) @ Iowa State (O/U 49)
North Carolina State (+7.5) @ Notre Dame (O/U 60.5)
Mississippi State (-1) @ Texas A&M (O/U 56)

Even though I normally use the AP Rankings over the Coaches' Poll for determining who is "ranked" and thus the top choices, I couldn't pass up MSU-A&M for, what, Clemson-GT? Maybe WSU-UA?
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

First off I'll still be shocked if it's not Clemson in the ACC Championship game.

Second, I in no way agree if you're trying to say a 1-loss Miami ACC Champ shouldn't make it in over the loser of the SEC Championship.

Oh, Clemson is probably still the favorite, but I wouldn't be too quick to count the Wolf Pack out.

On another note, I took a look at ESPN's "Bowl Projections" and after looking at the 4 teams they have in the playoff (They think Clemson will win the ACC, too, and get the 4-seed), I jumped down to the bottom for the other four NYS games, and at the bottom I noticed a footnote that an asterisk denoted a team that had already accepted a bid. My first thought was that it's way too early to have that note, but then I stopped and realized that there probably was one...

...Yeah. You never get teams from conferences accepting bids before the end of the regular season at earliest, if not after the conference championship games, but independents outside of Notre Dame are pretty much locked to a specific bowl unless they stand a chance at getting one of the big ones (which they pretty much never will). And...yesterday's overtime win over Temple brought Army to 6-2. They've clinched their bowl, and there's still another full week left in October. Don't think I've ever seen it happen this early--certainly not with Army. Navy might've clinched this early back when they were still an independent. BYU got off to a hot start a few years ago and even got ranked, but I think they fell apart after that and still only barely limped into bowl eligibility at like 7-5 or something. So congrats to Army.

On the subject of teams that were once ranked that may not get bowls, I can't help but wonder, what's the highest preseason ranking by a team that failed to make a bowl entirely? I know there have been preseason Top 25 teams that have missed out on bowls, but Florida State was, what, #3 in the preseason? And now they're 2-4. They've still got one cupcake left, but they also still have a game at Clemson, so we can assume that neither 7-4 nor 2-9 is a possibility. (Remember, one of their nonconference games got eaten by Hurricane Maria). That leaves as the three games in question: at Boston College, home vs. Syracuse, and at Florida. Now, based on precedent, I have to assume that if they wound up 5-6, they'd apply for a special waiver and probably get it, although given the past two years, there probably won't be enough teams at 6-6 or better anyway and they'd probably get preferential treatment over 5-7 teams. So...2-1 in those questionable games will probably be sufficient, though 3-0 would be the only way to make it a certainty. Can FSU pull that off? I'm not so sure. I'm not exactly impressed with Florida, but they should be favored over FSU at home, and Syracuse...Syracuse is not to be trifled with. They're only 4-4, but they've yet to get blown out and they have that upset of Clemson. And BC is no easy out either--just ask Louisville or Virginia.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

Well, either way, Tsunami is at least right in that ND will get to prove their position. But at that point if they fall apart it won't hurt Georgia in the slightest. They'll have beaten Florida which we're going to be expected to believe has meaning.

Actually, when you get down to it, Miss State is probably elevating them more than Notre Dame, even though Miss State seems to be more "feast or famine" than necessarily good or bad. But they were certainly thought to be good at the time.

When does Notre Dame ever not have a chance to prove their position? They always play a strong schedule. But this year, they also have immense power to affect the rest of the CFP, because so many of the teams they play are relevant.

I mean, there are a bunch of people who get extremely angry extremely quickly when anyone hints at the possibility of 2 teams from the same conference getting into the playoff, especially if that conference is the SEC (which it usually is), because of some perceived media bias (and if it isn't the SEC, a different set of people get indignant). Michigan State's only loss is to Notre Dame; Miami has no losses and has to play Notre Dame; NC State has no conference losses and gets the best team in their division at home, but has to go on the road to face Notre Dame; and win or lose tonight, USC controls their own destiny in the Pac-12. I'd already been considering the implications from the Pac-12 and ACC, but why not take out one step further? What if NC State and Miami meet in the ACC Championship Game and Michigan State and USC both win their conferences? In that scenario, it would be an absolute joke for Georgia and Alabama to not both be in if they were undefeated going into the SEC Championship Game, along with Notre Dame and either the Big 12 champion if it's undefeated TCU or... well, probably Michigan State.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Agreed. The Pac-12 is most likely going to be on the outside looking in. Right now their best hope is havoc in the Big 12--which is certainly possible, because this new conference championship game of theirs can only backfire and with their lone conference loss being to Texas, Iowa State literally controls their own destiny right now.

Of course, since you only need to be top two, Oklahoma does as well, since running the table would unquestionably put them ahead of anyone other than Iowa State. But it's hilarious to think that Oklahoma can't finish first in the Big 12 without help because Iowa State has the tiebreaker over them.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Notre Dame is ranked #13 because they went on the road and crushed Michigan State, and then Michigan State won at Michigan and has only the one loss against Notre Dame.

But fear not, kev, Notre Dame has plenty of other losable games on their schedule. They still have to play #8 Miami and #16 NC State. Honestly, if Notre Dame actually does wind up 11-1, they're probably just about a lock for the playoff, because they certainly would get the nod over the Pac-12 champ and they'd almost definitely get the nod over the ACC champ (Clemson might get the edge over them, but they could easily fall short entirely).
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...Oklahoma is down by two touchdowns I the first half.

I was really on the edge of maybe giving them some credit that their massive upset might've not been as damaging as it appeared at the time, because ISU is probably on the verge of entering the Top 25. But, nope, OU doesn't have it.

I suddenly have this sneaking feeling that if Georgia and Alabama are both undefeated going into the SEC Championship Game, they'll both make the playoff. It's no lock-- Miami and TCU can still keep the SEC runner-up out--but I feel like if there are only three undefeated Power Five conference champions, a 12-1 Georgia (we'll just assume the Alabama win for convenience) would get the nod over a 12-1 champion from the Pac-12 or whoever comes out of that ACC mess. (Clemson might be able to get in if they run the table, but if NC State beats Clemson but loses to Notre Dame...well, maybe Notre Dame themselves can...oh, right, even if they wind up 11-1, their loss was to Georgia. So they're useless for stopping the SEC unless Georgia beats Alabama more convincingly than they beat Notre Dame.)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I just took a good look at the remaining schedules for USF and UCF.

There's still some okay teams, but it really does look like if UCF gets out of this game with a win, they'll probably both still be undefeated entering their game at the end of the regular season.

I would love to see GameDay go to Orlando for Thanksgiving weekend. It would be absurd. And where else would you find a game with two unbeaten teams?

...Ah, darn it, the game's on Friday, not Saturday. And there doesn't appear to be any shortage of potentially relevant games; based on current rankings, there are 5 ranked-v-ranked games on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, in addition to the one on Friday.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Rutgers with their first back-to-back conference victories since joining the Big Ten.

Looking ahead at the schedule, that awful call at the end of the Eastern Michigan game could loom large. Rutgers needs 3 more wins to make a bowl; I only see at most two winnable games. I almost want Rutgers to lose one of those games, because I'd rather they miss out on a bowl because they legitimately didn't deserve one than because the refs didn't call any penalty on a play that should've been reviewed and ruled to be targeting. Yes, I know there's no guarantee that Rutgers wins if the penalty extended that drive, but it's a horrible way to lose a football game.

Except it's been, what, three years now since there were actually enough 6-6 teams to fill out the bowls? Rutgers always has pretty good APR, so 5-7 actually is a potential bowl season for them.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Also, Rutgers was scheduled to play their November 4th game against Maryland at Yankee Stadium; yesterday they announced that because of the Yankees' deep postseason run, they're moving it to their home stadium. The World Series would end November 1 even if it goes the full 7 games.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So for my ladder contest, I always pick out 5 "marquee games"-- prioritizing ranked vs. ranked, then ranked vs. ARV, and if necessary, ARV vs. ARV.

This week was, uh... Well, it was nice and spread out. 5 conferences were represented, 6 if you include Notre Dame as an ACC team. And USC-ND and Michigan-Penn State being marquee games is normal.

But Central Florida-Navy? Kentucky-Mississippi State? Iowa State-Texas Tech? seriously. This season has lined up in such a weird way that not only is a Group of Five game on the "marquee" (Navy's second straight week there, mind you), but the SEC and Big 12 are represented by matchups of teams that are generally at the bottom of the conference.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Hell if I know. I found out it had purged by hitting refresh, and my phone auto-updated to show it unavailable, so unless I actually had it up on my other computer for some reason, I can't even retrieve the list.

Level 7:
AAC: SMU
ACC: Virginia
Big 12: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State
C-USA: UAB
MAC: Ohio (19-point favorite)
MWC: Colorado State
Pac-12: Utah
SEC: LSU
Sun Belt: Appalachian State (23.5-point favorite)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

It figures that I can put this up on Thursday week after week with no problems, but when I actually manage to get my act in gear on Wednesday, I fall victim to the purge monster.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Marquee games:
Iowa State (+7) @ Texas Tech (O/U 67.5)
Central Florida (-7.5) @ Navy (O/U 66)
Kentucky (+11.5) @ Mississippi State (O/U 54.5)
Michigan (+9.5) @ Penn State (O/U 45)
USC (+3.5) @ Notre Dame (O/U 65.5)

...Wow. Not only is Navy, a Group of Five team, in a marquee game for a second straight week, they're literally in the upper half of the 10 teams in historical prestige. Seriously, the SEC and Big 12 both have a game on the marquee, and the most historically relevant program of the four of them is probably Texas Tech.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

I'm not exactly putting that forth as a likely possibility. But 3 teams isn't exactly terribly unlikely, and if Alabama and Georgia meet as 1 and 2 my concern is they just drop the loser to 3.

Edit: Meant 3 teams, not 3 conferences. And not counting conference championships, I guess.

Well, it is still possible that Clemson is the odd one out. ACC is the only P5 conference with no more undefeated teams, right? Big Ten has Wisconsin or Penn State, Big 12 has TCU, Pac-12 has Washington, and SEC has Georgia and Alabama.

...even before last night's upsets, the conference with the most undefeated teams was the American. We could actually get the rare Go5 ranked-v-ranked next week.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Wait, I missed that. Wazzu lost too?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I'm almost forced to make the Pac-12 my "double-digits but less than 20" pick. No one's actually favored by 20, but UCLA-Arizona is the only one that's in single digits. There are a couple that were 10.5 when I first looked last night and are down to 10 flat now, so I may change picks if they drop far enough.

ACC: Virginia
American: Temple
Big 12: TCU
Big Ten: Michigan
C-USA: Southern Miss (22.5-point favorite)
MAC: Toledo
MWC: San Diego State
Pac-12: Washington (18-point favorite)
SEC: Auburn
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe

I don't like that Auburn pick at all. Please let a Pac-12 line shift in my favor!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose, using the official Selection Committee Rankings if you're still at this level by the time they start coming out and the AP Poll prior to that. The ranked team must not be an underdog of at least 7 points (generally only happens when the favorite is also a ranked team). Alternatively, if you think that no ranked teams will lose (or the only ones that will lose are underdogs of at least 7 points), you can use "no valid option" as your pick and will advance if this comes to pass; this option must be chosen before any valid pick has kicked off.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 wins or 1 win and 2 pushes passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Choose one team and move the line seven points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Choose one game and please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U by 25 points. This will give you four total picks consisting of two sets of mutually exclusive outcomes. If any of these four outcomes is a winner, you move on to the next level.

Level 7: Pick one team from each of the ten FBS conferences to win straight-up. You may pick no more than two teams that are double-digit favorites and no more than one of those teams can be favored by at least 20 points. If adhering to this rule would force you to take at least one double-digit underdog, those underdogs need only to cover the spread rather than win straight-up.

Level 7:
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:
kevwaffles

Level 5:
5tarscream

Level 4:
KCF0107
Paratroopa1

Level 3:
jcgamer107

Level 2:
bwburke94
Eddv
Jakyl25

Level 1:
Shaduln
SmartMuffin

Marquee games:
Texas Tech (+3.5) @ West Virginia (O/U 75)
Auburn (-7) @ LSU (O/U 44.5)
Georgia Tech (+6.5) @ Miami (FL) (O/U 51.5)
Navy (+3.5) @ Memphis (O/U 72)
Utah (+13) @ USC (O/U 52.5)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Okay, maybe next week I should say that I really want to take, like, Alabama or something, but just can't justify it, just to jinx them. Seriously, Wolverines? I swear, if Michigan had dropped to 9.5, I would've taken them and possibly also Oklahoma (with VaTech taking over as the pick for the 10-19.5 range, though I feel like I might've stuck with TTU and taken Clemson). And I'd be 5-4 right now instead of 7-2, not that it matters because like I said, this level's brutal and requires 10-0. (And I officially have no regrets, because unlike the Sun Belt pick where I had multiple options that I was considering and one of them would've been a winner, I never considered not taking the Buffs.)

Except the funny thing is...I had been expressing some kind-of-maybe wishes that I didn't have any noon games to give the Michigan-Michigan State game some extra time to drop? It didn't do that at all. It was 10 flat for most of the morning, rose to 10.5 late morning, was up to 11 by noon, dropped back down to 10.5 again early in the afternoon, and yet by the time the game kicked off, it had shot all the way up to 13 points.

In fact, it went from 10.5 points to 13 points in the final two hours before kickoff. There was apparently that type of drastic late action, basically a Hail Mary by Vegas begging for more people to bet on Michigan State.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...Damnit I was hoping that would work. I saw that ULL's win probability was only listed at 99.1% even after that first down and figured that the Vandals must have had enough timeouts remaining to potentially get the ball back, or at least force the Ragin' Cajuns to run plays. I complained about Navy and Miami losses before they were final and they turned to wins, but alas, the Vandals couldn't hold on 3rd and 3.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...Ah well. I knew this level was sadistic when I made it, and I had a chance at the end on the Vandals as well.

End of the sixth overtime in Buffalo, still no winner.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So glad I took Akron instead of Western Michigan. The Broncos haven't lost yet... but they just sent it into sextuple-overtime.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Damnit I missed two straight weeks of this after starting out 2-0. I've yet to actually lose in either ladder contest.

Level 3: Chiefs -1.5, Raiders -2.5
Bonus: Kareem Hunt
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...I don't even care that my Idaho pick is losing, and that the ULM pick that I deemed acceptable before noticing the Idaho possibility would've already gotten me a winner. This is what Saturdays are all about. Navy and Miami both coming up with touchdown drives after falling behind inside of two minutes... this is great.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I can't win. Air Force came out of nowhere when I saw Miami threatening to retake the lead, and when I go to Navy-Air Force? FSU comes right back with the quick-strike. But they struck quickly enough to give Miami a chance, and the Canes can tie it with a field goal.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

AUGH.

I felt like something was odd about that Navy-Air Force line. It seemed like an absolute gift to get that as a sub-10. But seriously, what is this collapse?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Meow1000 posted...

Iowa State is pulling it's annual upset scare on a high ranked Big 12 team

Wow. Even if I don't actually advance this week, I still feel like I dodged a bullet. Chances are that if Michigan had dropped below a 10-point favorite, Oklahoma would've become my choice of heavy favorites. I'd have to look at the ACC options because Miami would definitely be the slight favorite that I'd be dropping, but I said before that if there hadn't been so few good Big Ten options, I wanted the Sooners.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Ah, much better.

And yes, it's 10 out of 10. Big difficulty jump, I know.

Level 7:

American: Navy
ACC: Miami-FL
Big Ten: Ohio State (30.5-point favorite)
Big 12: Texas Tech (15.5-point favorite)
C-USA: Middle Tennessee State
MAC: Akron
MWC: San Diego State
Pac-12: Colorado
SEC: Kentucky
Sun Belt: Idaho
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Huh. Well, at least I can say that I probably didn't hurt myself by putting this up too late for the Arkansas State-Georgia Southern game--Arkansas State was a 9-point favorite, which would make them an awfully tempting pick, but locking myself in yesterday would've kept me from being allowed to pick Kentucky, which didn't drop to 9.5 points until this morning. Glad to see that that's the direction it'd been heading; I'd hate for either the MTSU or Michigan pick to open up only for me to be unable to pick it without switching my SEC pick to either LSU-Florida or South Carolina-Arkansas. (Remember, it's what the lines are at the time you make the picks that counts. So if one of your single-digit favorites moves to double-digits or your double-digit-but-less-than-20-point favorite moves to 20+, you're still allowed to keep it as long as you don't change your picks.)

(By the way, the other conference where I was uncertain about a single-digit favorite was the MAC. I feel good enough about the Akron pick after looking at the teams a bit closer, but it wasn't one that jumped out at me.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Ooh. I was considering allowing 3 double-digit favorites instead of 2, and looking at this week's slate, this may have been more unforgiving than I thought! I made my picks by combing through all games, picking out single-digit favorites that I liked, then looking at which conferences lacked picks and highlighting all games with single-digit spreads...and in three out of the four conferences where I hadn't made a pick, there was only one option! In the end, it came down to whether I trusted a 4.5-point road favorite in a Group of Five conference (same number of wins but in more games played) or a 3.5-point home favorite in a Power 5 (worse raw record by one full game, but seemingly stronger SoS). Ah, well, at least I'm not taking any Thursday or Friday games so I can drop my least comfortable pick if by some miracle Michigan drops to a 9.5-point favorite by Saturday (currently favored by 10.5). Or, um...Middle Tennessee State, currently a 10-point favorite over a team with a record 1.5 games better than theirs? ...Well, at least that makes the decision on which low-confidence team to take a bit easier.

Level 7:

American: Navy
ACC: Miami-FL
Big Ten: Ohio State (30.5-point favorite)
Big 12: Texas Tech (17-point favorite)
C-USA: Florida Atlantic
MAC: Akron
MWC: Hawaii
Pac-12: Colorado
SEC: Kentucky
Sun Belt: Idaho

...Huh. My gut instinct once I'd decided on the conferences for my two big favorites was to go with Oklahoma (28-point favorite), but then that left me with my most comfortable Big Ten team as...Michigan, which is barely even a double-digit favorite and feels like a waste of a "big favorite" pick as a result. I mean, yes, Iowa feels rather safe as well, but...TTU over Kansas, even on the road, feels safer than either of them.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I'd say that I was only handicapping myself by putting this up as late as I did, but people actually tried their hands at lower-conference games willingly last week so maybe not. I put in the qualifiers for the new level in advance, but I expect this to only be an issue in Conference Championship Game week.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose, using the official Selection Committee Rankings if you're still at this level by the time they start coming out and the AP Poll prior to that. The ranked team must not be an underdog of at least 7 points (generally only happens when the favorite is also a ranked team). Alternatively, if you think that no ranked teams will lose (or the only ones that will lose are underdogs of at least 7 points), you can use "no valid option" as your pick and will advance if this comes to pass; this option must be chosen before any valid pick has kicked off.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 wins or 1 win and 2 pushes passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Choose one team and move the line seven points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Choose one game and please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U by 25 points. This will give you four total picks consisting of two sets of mutually exclusive outcomes. If any of these four outcomes is a winner, you move on to the next level.

Level 7: Pick one team from each of the ten FBS conferences to win straight-up. You may pick no more than two teams that are double-digit favorites and no more than one of those teams can be favored by at least 20 points. If adhering to this rule would force you to take at least one double-digit underdog, those underdogs need only to cover the spread rather than win straight-up.

Level 7:
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:
kevwaffles

Level 5:

Level 4:
5tarscream
Paratroopa1

Level 3:
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Level 2:
bwburke94
Eddv
Jakyl25

Level 1:
Shaduln
SmartMuffin

Marquee games:
Louisville (-3.5) @ NC State (O/U 65.5) (Thursday Night)
West Virginia (+13.5) @ TCU (O/U 68)
Miami (FL) (-3) @ Florida State (O/U 46)
Alabama (-26.5) @ Texas A&M (O/U 54)
Washington State (-2.5) @ Oregon (O/U 61.5)

It kills me to put a 1-2 team in the "marquee games", but they are technically higher up in the "also receiving votes" than A&M or Maryland and besides that tOSU-Maryland game had a spread of over 30 points.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Up
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Okay, one of these weeks I'm going to have to actually be stopped by one of my levels.

I'm kind of glad it wasn't this one, though, because now that I'm actually playing it, I'm realizing that it was a really stupid idea.

I've already got a plan for Level 7, but I haven't got a Level 8 planned out yet. Still, Level 6 will actually be beaten in September. That's crazy. If my stupid-as-f*** Level 9 plan that I've had since I started running this thing remains unrevealed this year, I will be amazed.

Meanwhile, Rutgers just doinked a FGA to remain scoreless.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

God this sucks.

Final Fantasy X
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Two matchups of unbeaten teams in power conferences. Really hoping that Friday's baseball games aren't still relevant.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

And who else would I pick (on) for a level this screwy than the state university of my home state?

Level 6: Ohio State @ Rutgers: Ohio State -45 or Rutgers +15; Over 79 or Under 29

I fully believe that 3 out of those 4 options are possibilities. Rutgers can't win games, but they can overperform or underperform wildly; I could see a close game or a blowout like the one Michigan put up against them last year. (Though tOSU blew them out pretty badly last year as well.) Normally I'd have already given up on the Knights completely by now, but their record really probably should be 2-2 right now, not 1-3. (Or maybe not; knowing Rutgers, they'd have found a way to blow the game against EMU even if the refs hadn't blatantly screwed them over on their final drive--and by "blatantly screwed them over", I mean "I have full faith that had a penalty actually been called, the ensuing review would've upheld the decision to eject the EMU player for targeting.")
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Well, there is one advantage to being alone at the highest level: when the inevitable overcomplicated levels come, I can actually demonstrate them myself. Also, thanks to kevwaffles for preparing the list of who's where for me.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose, using the official Selection Committee Rankings if you're still at this level by the time they start coming out and the AP Poll prior to that. The ranked team must not be an underdog of at least 7 points (generally only happens when the favorite is also a ranked team). Alternatively, if you think that no ranked teams will lose (or the only ones that will lose are underdogs of at least 7 points), you can use "no valid option" as your pick and will advance if this comes to pass; this option must be chosen before any valid pick has kicked off.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 wins or 1 win and 2 pushes passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Choose one team and move the line seven points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Choose one game and please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U by 25 points. This will give you four total picks consisting of two sets of mutually exclusive outcomes. If any of these four outcomes is a winner, you move on to the next level.

Level 6:
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 5:
kevwaffles

Level 4:
5tarscream
Paratroopa1

Level 3:
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Level 2:
bwburke94
Eddv
Jakyl25

Level 1:
Shaduln
SmartMuffin

Marquee games:
Miami-FL (-6.5) @ Duke (O/U 55.5) (Friday Night)
USC (-3.5) @ Washington State (O/U 65) (Friday Night)
Mississippi State (+9.5) @ Auburn (O/U 50.5)
Clemson (-7.5) @ Virginia Tech (O/U 51.5)
Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Texas Tech (O/U 82)

Wow, check out that Friday night action!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Hmm...I usually dislike taking big favorites against the spread anyway, since you can't really predict the exact margins of a blowout. 7 points is pretty big, too--even a pick-em then has to become better than a 7-point game.

Luckily, this line is perfect:

Level 5: Texas Tech -0.5 @ Houston
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So quick, I need to come up with a level 5 on Week 4. Figures that'd happen in a year that I didn't plan as much out in advance.

...Oh, wait, I'm the only one at Level 5. I actually feel a little ashamed when I'm alone in first place because I'm the one controlling what the challenges are. Still, this one's pretty similar to something we've done in years past.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose, using the official Selection Committee Rankings if you're still at this level by the time they start coming out and the AP Poll prior to that. The ranked team must not be an underdog of at least 7 points (generally only happens when the favorite is also a ranked team). Alternatively, if you think that no ranked teams will lose (or the only ones that will lose are underdogs of at least 7 points), you can use "no valid option" as your pick and will advance if this comes to pass; this option must be chosen before any valid pick has kicked off.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 wins or 1 win and 2 pushes passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Choose one team and move the line seven points to your detriment.

Level 5:
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 4:
kevwaffles
Paratroopa1

Level 3:
5tarscream
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Level 2:
bwburke94
Eddv
Jakyl25

Level 1:
Shaduln
SmartMuffin

Marquee games:
Alabama (-18.5) @ Vanderbilt (O/U 43)
TCU (+13) @ Oklahoma State (O/U 71.5)
Mississippi State (+5) @ Georgia (O/U 48.5)
Florida (-1.5) @ Kentucky (O/U 44)
Washington (-11.5) @ Colorado (O/U 50)

...Huh. Pretty rough week overall last week. San Diego State's upset of Stanford was the most damaging, downing both of the other two Level 4 pickers. Also, the wording for Level 3 has been changed in light of one of the Level 3 pickers' games actually pushing on the O/U line (not that it was relevant since their other two picks were both outright wrong).
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Sorry, it's been a busy week.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Just a weird thought exercise that I thought up. No matter how good your team may be, they're not going to win the division every year, but it stands to reason that a lot of fans would feel "at least <insert team here> didn't win." I suspect that for certain teams, the answers will be fairly predictable. Also, while I put team in the singular in the topic title, feel free to answer the question for multiple sports--and of course, identify which team it is you're supporting.

I'll start. My favorite teams are the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Eagles. For baseball, this is an easy decision--Toronto Blue Jays, no question. They're a division rival, but there's absolutely no animosity, whereas the other three teams in the division...let's put it this way, all three of them have probably done a stint as "most hated", which seems inconceivable given that the rivalry between my team and one of them is literally considered one of the greatest rivalries in all of professional sports. But the Yankees, yes they're a hated rival but at least I can respect them, which is more than I could say about the late '00s Rays (in spite of their manager at the time, who I consider one of the great managers in baseball) or the Showalter Orioles.

For the Eagles, it's a bit dicier. The obvious answer is the Washington Redskins. Because that's what the answer is "supposed" to be, right? Except, again, there's that little matter of "respect", and frankly when I take emotion out of it I find the 'Skins to be the most vile of the three. I'd still rather they win than the Cowboys, because they're the Cowboys, but...I can't get up the animosity for the Giants that a Philadelphia fan is "supposed to" have. They're a classy organization, and besides, it always feels to me as if they always cooperate with whatever's the most beneficial for the Eagles--lose to them when the Eagles are fighting for a playoff spot, and beat them when the Eagles have no playoff hopes anyway and want a higher draft position. So I guess the answer there is actually the New York Giants.

As for my other vague rooting interests, the recent realignment of the NHL means I'm not even completely sure which teams are in the same division as the Devils anymore, and Rutgers is new enough to their current conference that I still probably have more animosity towards Louisville than towards any of their current division rivals (except maybe Ohio State but that's because I already hated them). I guess I could still answer for the latter, because I actually have positive feelings towards Penn State and to a lesser extent Michigan compared to being completely neutral towards Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State and negative towards Ohio State, but the situations aren't comparable and besides Rutgers was more of a default pick as the only FBS team in the state of New Jersey than anything I felt strongly about. (Actually, "New Jersey" is pretty much the only thing tying me to the Devils, too, and the reason why I don't even have an NBA rooting interest anymore.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

To Memphis, though? I have to ask the same thing as Para. Is there something I'm missing here?

It's actually quite simple, and I'm glad that I managed to get the push because if I'd really stopped to think about it I might've been a bit more scared.

That's a 9 AM Pacific start time. I don't know if they've done numbers on it at the college level, but there's a proven correlation in the NFL that the home team's win probability increases with each time zone that the road team had to cross to get to the game. UCLA actually got into Memphis on Thursday to try to combat this trend, but I suspect that the "smart money" was on Memphis, or certainly would've been if they hadn't set that line so ridiculously low.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 2: Miami
Bonus: 6
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.