Lurker > Ngamer64

Nah too much family stuff happening on T-Day all day, but the new one will come out VERY SOON.
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Link
Mega Man
Cloud Strife
Crono
Solid Snake
Sonic the Hedgehog
Samus Aran
Mario
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

So there's 36 scenarios that result in an Ng Championship?

I like those odds!

(never tell me the actual odds)


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

5 out of 8 for this handsome bracket.

http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=3

(err, ignore Div 2)


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Rejoice, you'll get to see the matchups play out in the Losers Bracket!
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

LusterSoldier posted...

There will also be a chance to win prizes for the Second Chance Bracket. Given these developments, does this change your decision to track brackets for the Second Chance contest?

Awesome! But no.
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

I say Geralt. Yes, he was in a weak half-division, but he still managed to win it, and even though most people on this site would only know him because of video games, his success still weakens the case for "characters originating in other media wouldn't do well here". And if that means we get a mega-contest next time with lots of characters from other media as well, I'm fine with that.

Aw HECK yeah!

Yes B8 made up a larger % of the nominations than in the past, but I still think the Noble Nine would be fine with getting enough support to make the bracket. I remember years back SB said Link got something like 8000 nominations in a year when only 12 came from B8.

...that being said, I'd prefer to use this year's format for the All Fictional Battle, with the newcomers facing all the best in the baby bracket before graduating to taking on the NN in Legends.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

I shall do no tracking of the Second Chance, if you think it would be great to have, you should make a topic tomorrow to collect brackets and you can score them in Google Sheets.

I was going to respond to BT but everyone else already wrote my replies for me. Did the "wrong character" win? Maybe! But if you're going to put a * next to that result you need to do the same for all of our previous 100 close matches. Posting links in Discord and reddit and texting friends is just the new version of sending messages in AIM and MSN and ICQ; it's happened every time a result was in doubt, and it always will happen.

If anything it's less of a problem this year than ever before, since the new people being pulled in only count for half of what they used to.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Hmmmm okay guess the rally removal controversy actually happened the previous match (against Mewtwo), his wife was being proactive because she knew Snake would be doomed the next round in the Finals. But the rest of what I said should be accurate (Mewtwo had built up a large lead and looked to be safe before the rally topic returned, he blew past everyone once it was back up).


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

The reddit rally posted on /lol went down and Snake made a great comeback and it looked like he would win the championship match. People asked what happened, the mods of that board leaked messages where they talked with the admin of GameFAQs who told them rallying wasn't allowed and to please remove the links. From the screenshots we could tell that, sure enough, that was SB's official account talking to them (we knew his username because he did a big AMA the previous year).

Draven people were upset and demanded an explanation, so SB had to reply, and he said

So I'm reading through the big topic about me explaining myself and wondering what the hell all this is about. So I go over to Reddit and my account and lo and behold, I see that I actually did post those messages. After the initial WTF!? reaction, I finally figure out what happened. My wife loves Solid Snake. He's her favorite character in gaming. She also knew how irritated I was with this whole Draven thing, and worst of all, she knows all my passwords. Thus, her devious plot unfolded. She logged into my Reddit account posing as me and messaged the mods. I honestly had no idea, and feel pretty stupid about the whole ordeal. Feel free to mercilessly mock me for getting completely owned by my wife!

He contacted the /lol mods and told them the link could go back up, it did, and Draven made the biggest push the Contest has ever seen in the next few hours to seal his win. If you want more details you can listen to our wrapup Show where we get into all the insanity:

http://board8.speedrunwiki.com/interviews/theshow/20130919-TheShowEP12.mp3


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Are hentai rallies actually happening today, or is that just a wild myth?


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

GlaDOS
Amaterasu
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

No Guru picks will be changed based on the Second Chance, and I'm not going to track these new brackets. If someone else would like to do it as a new board Contest, they're welcome to.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Cloud Strife
Crono
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

15% on Luigi
10% on Ryu
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

CHANGE

Luigi - 50.29%
Sephiroth - 55.77%
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Rez Vibe and Powerglove could win matches with meme power. Rumble Pack could win a couple rounds.
PS Move, Kinect, and the Wii Balance Board have good recognition but would be anti-voted to R1 loses. I like the Zapper to go all the way.

But I'd be rooting for my Wavebird controller!


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

I still come back to Zelda to win the Series Contest, I took lots of grief for it (and only 19% of the board picked it) but boy was the payoff ever worth it!


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Fun to think about!
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Zelda
Auron
Luigi
Sephiroth

Link
Mega Man
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

10% on Zelda
15% on Auron
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

CHANGE

Zelda 63.87%
Auron 58.91%

SAFE

Luigi - 50.03%
Sephiroth - 56.17%
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Yes, all the hentai voters have stuck around to push her through.
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

No, but I'm still furious about Cloud > Link.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Alucard
Bowser
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

EP6 is here and it's astounding!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77208759


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

LordoftheMorons dropped by to break down all the action with yo and I, and let me tell you it was really something!

http://board8.speedrunwiki.com/interviews/theshow/20181116-TheShowEP06.mp3

* we go wild for Tifa Hentai on a controversial, crazy day!

* Ngamer's Grand Unified Theory of Character Battle X- thoughts and discussion

* trying to explain Zelda's destruction of Squall (despite Aerith's upset of Fox), and a celebration for Alucard And The Amazing Eightpack! (Bayo's was pretty great as well)

* our choices for Stars and Turds of R3

* our picks for the 8 divisional winners, then it's off to Thanksgiving Break

This was a good one, check it out boys!


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

10% on Alucard
10% on Bowser
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

haloiscoolisbak posted...

@Ngamer64

Was looking through your bracket after hearing you mention on your show how you picked Nintendo in every close match up

Anyway I noticed you have Mewtwo randomly winning a match in the losers bracket despite having him lose to Tifa in round 2

Yeaaaaaaah I entered that so I'd be able to change someone else's bracket with the tool, meant to switch it back right after and guess I forgot. I've fixed it now.

Shadow: please note that my 132 winner is actually the standard choice (Sephiroth).


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

SWEET just interested in two more, what was the pred % for Tails and KOS-MOS in R2?
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Ngamer64 posted...

WOW what a match, let's celebrate by seeing those prediction percentage numbers from Leon!

@LeonhartFour heeeeeeeeeeelp
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

It's been fantastic. How can I tell? Because I have EYEBALLS.
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Ganondorf
Yoshi
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

WOW what a match, let's celebrate by seeing those prediction percentage numbers from Leon!


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Ganondorf
Pikachu
Alucard
Kirby
Zelda
Auron
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

10% on Ganondorf
15% on Pikachu
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

SAFE

Ganondorf 51.16%
Pikachu 55.33%
Alucard 51.93%
Kirby 53.61%
Zelda 62.43%
Auron 58.59%
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Loved this episode, best of the season so far for me!
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

PS Move actually worked very well, it just wasn't given enough support.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

That's some mighty fine research Luster, we have to make sure Chunners gets into the next bracket to continue this test.

Maybe we should do Cammy as well, dropping the boys...


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

20% on Luigi
10% on Tifa
10% on Sephiroth
25% on Ryu
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Luigi - 66.79%
Mega Man X - 51.81%
Sephiroth - 64.13%
Ryu - 66.71%
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

For real though, I love this Contest so much. We can discuss it on the next episode but want to try to sort through my thoughts first...

I feel like every previous season the game has been to feel out the dominant trend in the first couple rounds. If you could do that, dominating the Oracle and Spread down the home stretch became a piece of cake. The site's Square crazy, now Nintendo's on the rebound, now casuals have taken over, now casuals have disappeared and the SNES/PSX are king, this year it's all about rallies and counter-rallies, etc.

And sure, Nintendo's had a boost across the board in 2018, but this time there's so much more to it than that. It's not just a matter of adjusting the X-Stat values a few points to factor in the big trend and calling it a day; voters are reacting differently to every single matchup, and it's super difficult to know which way they're going to swing. In 2010 you needed to be a mathematician to win the Oracle Challenge- this year you need to be a psychologist!

I'm not saying all Nintendo characters are joined at the hip, or all Smash fighters, or even characters from the same series, but seriously... there's no world in which Ganon's 59 on Chun-Li should be happening a week before Zelda's 63 on Squall. This is well beyond "Final Fantasy sucks this year" (no it doesn't, look what happened to Mewtwo and Fox!) or "Pokemon is having a resurgence" (Charizard barely outperformed 2B!) or "the character closer to 1998 always overperforms" or any of the other simplified explanations we'd always have used in the past.

We've seen x-stats defying trends near the end of more recent brackets that we dubbed "smart voters." That made sense- with votals cut to a quarter of what they once were, the people remaining seemed to know the expected results and occasionally they'd vote against those expectations to make things more interesting. Something like that could explain the results for Chun-Li ("I'm sure Ganon's save so I can afford to throw SF2 a bone") versus Dante ("this should be close so no funny business, got to make sure Zelda wins this time"). But it fails to account for why there's suddenly a huge gap between Pikachu and Charizard/Mewtwo that never existed before, or why Auron and Tifa and Vivi look the same as ever but Squall and Kefka got smoked, or what the heck happened to Leon.

It's more than just match pictures, more than the normal rise and fall of companies and series, more than just smart voters, more than just nostalgia, more than just who looked cool in the latest trailers. There must be some kind of formula we could apply to these matchups... but so far I can't quite wrap my head around what it could be. And that's really fun!

EDIT - Okay, just came up with a theory that might explain EVERYTHING. But I'll save it for when we're live!
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Nah, this is clear proxy factor. Like when "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2: Majora's Mask" won Game of the Decade.

I don't disagree... but until she runs into Link directly, does that matter?


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Try it now.
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Zelda
Fox
Bayonetta
Magus
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

Yes I must admit, even as the #2 driver of the BotW Bus, this one has me well and shocked!


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

The Noble Two? Has a nice ring to it.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

RPGlord95 posted...

Fox beat Pikachu in 2002 didn't he yeah

No that was 2003, you and yo fell into the same trap!

Time for a bold prediction: this will be the closest day in GameFAQs history!

(in terms of average wins)

(out of all the days with 4 matches)

Only thing that would shock me would be Subby > Auron, and with how uneven FF has been even that wouldn't make my top five for most stunning results so far.


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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats

10% on Zelda
15% on Fox McCloud
10% on Bayonetta
10% on Sub-Zero
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BKSheikah dominated even The Show hosts in 2017, wow!
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats