Lurker > MZero

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


I still have to work (remotely) on Japan time so I'm not completely unshackled :/

Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals
Washington Commanders
Green Bay Packers

whoops forgot to mention I was flying across the planet yesterday. I am in America and very jet lagged. I'm about to sleep for a bit but I will be around for deadline

Also possible all 3 are scum and plum had a weaker role, considering Scare still had some good stuff left. Either way I don't like BCT leaving himself the option to get off Scare completely and locking himself on the plum train instead

If plum is town (big if) it looks absolutely terrible that the Suprak vote was left on him even though BCT was on Scare, seeing as it can't be moved in the last 10 minutes so if there was a b8 special off of Scare it would have been stuck there, and plum was the other lynch leader

Speaking of Suprak it's very interesting that vote wasn't moved to Scare last night

That achievement is for 100% and beating the game. I think there's another one for 112%

Chaeix posted...

Hm.

This is an interesting thought. I will think on it.

I'll be honest I saw Ben hinting at the claim before I recognized Scare's reaction as a claim. I kind of interpreted Scare as generally just being like 'oh fuck we have a dead town member' idk

I think Ben caught it when Scare said something like "Why didn't you tell me 1005%" or whatever, referring to Ben calling Lopen 1004% town. I was asleep at the time so I read it after the fact but I can see how Ben caught that

On the other hand, Isquen was likely to shoot scare and would have been very hard to mislynch after that, so scum may have overextended to get him while they had the chance, and Ben did try that day scan gambit. Scum Fireproof makes a lot of sense too

TotallyNotMI posted...

Idk that felt staged to me. The rest of us were trying to understand what happened but Ben just instantly understood and was bantering with scare about it

That's kind of what I mean. It looks so staged that I'm struggling to think they thought it was a good idea

I'm still struggling to see Ben/Scare as scum/scum. Their immediate exchange after the day resumed just doesn't seem like something two scum would do. Besides, Ben tied himself to that Scare town read so hard.

I mean it's possible he's trying something wacky but it feels wrong to me

Corrik7 posted...

Sbell to be scum it means he knew the stop was coming and posted after it purposely to abuse a stop to not be linked to Scare and wasn't modkilled for it. Yeah no.

Yeah SBell is town

Level 6:
Patriots -5.5

Bonus: Judon

Katamari

threw away a freebie
Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills

JonThePenguin posted...

That promise was a dub change, might not even cross the writers minds.

Not really. He definitely said he would come back for him in the original too

Sly ended a lot of my runs. I can beat him pretty consistently as long as I'm patient but I still hate that little guy

There's gotta eventually be an epic showdown with Ash a la Gold and Silver

Poochyena
Mightyena

Yes I wouldn't buy one without

it's 12pm for me but if I'll go to bed if that's what it takes

Obellisk posted...

van we just lynch bct and go to bed?

yes plz

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Do people really not like the SBell train? I feel fine about Ctes and JC currently.

well, I don't have a problem with the names on it (other than ben) but I just don't think SBell is scum

masterplum posted...

Oh, Mzero asked why BCT was on my list. I was talking of lynch candidates thrown around

that's fair

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Not liking the sbell train

I don't like it one bit

PunishedBen posted...

And at the same time I also would feel stronger about BCT and Plum being town, due to recency bias. I wish Scare was more of a presence in the second half today

so you think basically everyone up for lynch is town

HanOfTheNekos posted...

It's hard being superior to everyone else.

Sepia Gang

Obellisk posted... BCT probably not scum. Maybe I'm the crazy one for thinking it makes sense as an additional Independent. his greatest defense right now is that his scum team wouldn't let him be this bad with his power.

TotallyNotMI posted...

BCT has come off as scum almost exclusively by his play. The thing giving me pause is his role. If I lynch him today it would be because I believe the theory that suprak is an extra scum member that isn't actually linked to BCT and lynching him would be the way to confirm this.

changmas posted...

only reason to kill BCT now and not Scare or Ben is if you earnestly believe that the scum team has a bunch of abilities that interact with the puppet. also it's a pretty swingy lynch if he's actually town. -2 town votes in one fell swoop. i'd rather not take my chances on that today

Three posts right here from Sultan's hard hitting questions where people mention his role as a reason to think he's not scum. Why would scum care to hide that he controls the Suprak account? What is the downside?

That's not even to mention that half the time the scum team is uncoordinated and doing their own thing. and I've been on a lot of scum teams

Obellisk posted... BCT probably not scum. Maybe I'm the crazy one for thinking it makes sense as an additional Independent. his greatest defense right now is that his scum team wouldn't let him be this bad with his power.

TotallyNotMI posted...

BCT has come off as scum almost exclusively by his play. The thing giving me pause is his role. If I lynch him today it would be because I believe the theory that suprak is an extra scum member that isn't actually linked to BCT and lynching him would be the way to confirm this.

changmas posted...

only reason to kill BCT now and not Scare or Ben is if you earnestly believe that the scum team has a bunch of abilities that interact with the puppet. also it's a pretty swingy lynch if he's actually town. -2 town votes in one fell swoop. i'd rather not take my chances on that today

Three posts right here from Sultan's hard hitting questions where people mention his role as a reason to think he's not scum. Why would scum care to hide that he controls the Suprak account? What is the downside?

That's not even to mention that half the time the scum team is uncoordinated and doing their own thing. and I've been on a lot of scum teams

PunishedBen posted...

Haha, this is the exact post I made today. Plum is now town for that

I will repeat what I said when you said it because it wasn't answered

Why would they do that? It's not like controlling the Suprak slot is a scummy role. In fact, it seems more likely to be town aligned in general. On the contrary, they probably wanted BCT to "accidentally" give himself away so people would think he's town due to being double voter, a typically town-aligned role

BlueCrystalTear posted...

no

Stop obsessing over me

my vote is on plum lol

masterplum posted...

Right now I am Ben>Sbell>Scare>BCT

masterplum posted...

Yeah I just don't think scum BCT gets caught that easily. I think he is town

Why is BCT even on your list?

can we please lynch BCT

plz

masterplum posted...

Through topic 1 there are 2 big issues with Lea (Well 3 if you include a lot of fluffy comments)

I think I have seen scum do this more often than town. It is pointless other than a setup to later claim and point back at it.

This is the serious problem though. Lea in the course of just a few posts went from believing Ben's claim to mocking it and acting like it is an obvious fake claim. What changed between these posts? I looked and there was a post 15 seconds or so before the second saying the claim was obviously fake but there is no way that post influenced this latter post.

There is a consistency break here

what in the world is this post

Lea how do you feel about plum claiming when he said he wouldn't? It was you that said he's gone down without claiming in the past, right?

Twilight Princess

masterplum posted...

We thinking BCT?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80275821/970152153

HanOfTheNekos posted... I will say that I don't think we should go for BCT rn.

masterplum posted...

ThisThisThis

Got through topic 4 but this is bothering me a ton

Does anybody in this entire game really think scum BCT is going to fake not critical thinking to understand why Ben would think their is an arsonist? That is way harder to do then it looks. As far as I am aware BCTs scum play is not nearly that tactical.

Han has been on fire. His thoughts have been excellent. This slightly worries me and I think he is in a Sir Chris style untouchable until lylo situation for me. At that point Ill worry but for now almost everything he has said has gotten vigorous nodding.

Bct saying two town vigs were impossible made me roll my eyes hard. This game already has shown itself to be off the wall. I am leaning scare scum but there are a lot of big question marks with that. It is based almost purely on role meta and with an arsonist that is a dangerous place to be, Scare is currently 3rd or so on my scum list but that is still in the murky area.

>_>

ScareChan posted...

Waking up to 4 more pages is ??? but then we have a lot of strange timezone people in this game so that makes sense

imagine waking up to 4 more topics :(

KommunistKoala posted...

I passed level 9 so level 10's rules need to be posted

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80266926/970084765

fixed!

PunishedBen posted...

I hope your gold mine of info includes that I heavily town-read BCT as town and you need to lay off

Even if you're town that doesn't mean your reads are right

PunishedBen posted...

Here's a thought about BCT. Similar to my reasoning for why Scare is confirmed town.

If Suprak is double voting scum slot, does he EVER need to post? Doesn't BCT's team just tell BCT to post only to vote and not give anything away about who the player is or some other slip?

Why would they do that? It's not like controlling the Suprak slot is a scummy role. In fact, it seems more likely to be town aligned in general. On the contrary, they probably wanted BCT to "accidentally" give himself away so people would think he's town due to being double voter, a typically town-aligned role

A few ground rules:
-Please say which level you are on when you post your pick. In most cases it will be obvious, but this makes it easier for me to record the picks.
-The deadline to make a pick is before the official kick-off time of the game in question. You cannot pick a game that has already started. Some levels may have different deadlines, so read carefully.
-The deadline to answer the bonus question is at the start of games on Sunday (1 PM ET).
-Please don't edit your picks. If you'd like to change, please do so in a clearly labeled new post.
-I get my spreads from an online site providing lines from several sources, both in Vegas and out. Although these sources may continue to change their lines throughout the week, the ones I post in the topic are frozen and final for our purposes.
-You may use bonus points to skip any level after it is guaranteed you cannot pass it (at the end of the week's games, typically). You may only skip the level before I have posted the next week's topic. The price for skipping is in proportion to the level you are skipping. Skipping level 1 would take 1 bonus point, level 2 will take 2, level 5 will take 5. So on and so forth.

Explanation of Levels:

Level 1: Pick a winner. Simply pick one team to win their game. If they win, you go on to level 2.

Level 2: Pick an Underdog to win. You must pick a team that is an underdog to win their game. Underdogs will always be the team listed second.

Level 3: Level 3: 2 Games with Spread. Using the spreads I provide, pick 2 games. You must get both correct to move on. Spreads work by giving (-) or getting (+) points. The team that is the favorite to win "gives" points to the underdog. If you choose the favorite to win, they must still win after "giving" those points to the underdog. If you choose the underdog, you would be correct if they win the game after "getting" those points. For example, if a game says "Giants (-2.5) vs. Cowboys," if you pick the Giants, they must actually win the game by at least three points; if you pick the Cowboys, you would win if they actually won the game or lost by two points or less.

Level 4: 2 Game differentials. Pick two games and specify them to have a score differential of either 10+ or 5-. Make sure to specify which you pick, if you pick a score to be 10+ and the score ends up 3 apart, you do not advance. You do not need to pick the winner, as long as the differential is correct, it does not matter which team wins.

Level 5: 2 Over/Unders: I will now provide over/unders for each game. This number relates to the final score. You must choose 2 of the games and decide whether the final score will be OVER the number I provided or UNDER the number I provided. You must get both of these correct to advance.

Level 6: Pleaser: Pick one team to win using the spread, but with the pleaser, you lose 6 points on the spread. In other words, add six points in whichever direction makes it harder to win. For example, a (-2.5) spread becomes (-8.5), a (+3.5) becomes a (-2.5) spread, etc.

Level 7: QB, RB, WR: Pick 1 player to throw a touchdown pass, 1 player to rush for a touchdown, and 1 player to catch a touchdown pass. They must all be from different teams, and must also combine for at least 4 touchdowns in their respective positions. Typically you will be picking a QB, RB, and WR, but you may pick players from other positions to fill those roles (i.e. a TE or RB to get a receiving touchdown). You must make it clear what role you are picking the players for if it is not the standard QB/RB/WR or QB/RB/TE. If the player gets a touchdown in a different way (i.e. your rusher getting a receiving touchdown), it does not count.

Level 8: 5 Game Teaser: This is the opposite of level 6. Instead of losing 6 points on each spread, you actually gain 6 points on each spread. But you have to get all 5 games right to move on. So a team favored by 9.5 will now only have to win by 3.5, a team that is getting 2.5 points will now be getting 8.5 points.

Level 9: Rank 'Em: Pick starting quarterbacks and rank them in order of passing yards they will have this week, from most to least. You must get the entire order correct. TWO CHOICES: You may rank three quarterbacks whose team wins the game, OR any four quarterbacks. All selected quarterbacks must start their game. You must pick all players at once; you cannot make a partial pick to complete later.

Level 10: Obstacle Course: For this level, you are trying previous levels (although some of them are easier than before): You must SUCCESSFULLY pick one team to win, one team to win with the spread, one team to score 28 or more/14 or less, one over/under, one player to score a non-passing touchdown, AND quarterback to throw for at least 280 yards. You can't pick the same team more than once.

Schedule: (Favorites listed first; home team in CAPS)

Thursday, December 15th
San Francisco (-2.5) @ SEATTLE 43.5

Saturday, December 17th
MINNESOTA (-4.5) vs Indianapolis 48.5
CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Baltimore 37.5
BUFFALO (-6.5) vs Miami 43.5

Sunday, December 18th
1 PM
Philadelphia (-8.5) @ CHICAGO 48.5
NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) vs Atlanta 42.5
NEW YORK JETS (-0.5) vs Detroit 44.5
CAROLINA (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh 37.5
Dallas (-4.5) @ JACKSONVILLE 47.5
Kansas City (-13.5) @ HOUSTON 49.5
4 PM
DENVER (-2.5) vs Arizona 36.5
LAS VEGAS (-0.5) vs New England 44.5
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5) vs Tennessee 47.5
Cincinnati (-3.5) @ TAMPA BAY 43.5
8 PM
WASHINGTON (-4.5) vs New York Giants 40.5

Monday, December 19th
GREEN BAY (-6.5) vs Los Angeles Rams 39.5

Bonus Question: Choose a player to record a sack this week.

masterplum posted... Bct saying two town vigs were impossible made me roll my eyes hard. This game already has shown itself to be off the wall. I am leaning scare scum but there are a lot of big question marks with that. It is based almost purely on role meta and with an arsonist that is a dangerous place to be, Scare is currently 3rd or so on my scum list but that is still in the murky area.

Topic 5 page 2 - plum says leaning scum on Scare based "almost purely on role meta"

masterplum posted... The biggest knock on scare is town shooting then is completely nonsensical

But then again we just killed town for playing town day vig completely nonsensically

Topic 5 page 3 - plum says biggest knock on Scare is "town shooting there is completely nonsensical"... literally one page later the reasoning is completely different

also he says this apparently not knowing what actually led up to the shot as shown in this topic

masterplum posted...

Your reasoning is dually noted

I hope you noted better than you noted who was lynched

masterplum posted...

I will not claim any more.

Adjust your reasoning accordingly

well your other option was die so my votes stays

masterplum posted...

I know you have time zone issues so I'm not going to let you leave the vote on me in that ambiguous way and then after I flip town you shrug and say it was to get me to claim.

Do you think I am more scummy than every other player and thus want to lynch me

Day ends at noon my time so I'll be around

and no I think BCT is scummiest but I've been sitting on that for a day and a half with no traction. It should be pretty obvious I was joining Corrik in his quest to make you claim

and I'm still not satisfied with your explanation for how 2 day vigs is impossible but 2 day vigs + arsonist is a-ok

masterplum posted...

What are you trying to accomplish with it

I'm trying to get town a win

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink

masterplum posted...

This is a pretty bad vote btw

why

##unvote
##vote: Plum

I lend you my sword Corrik

"That's a bad shot" - Plum George

masterplum posted...

Honestly I don't care if town wins.

oh