Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

HanOfTheNekos posted...

So here's what I want from you FD, then I'll stop being mad at you.

1. Promise that Scare dies tomorrow if I'm lynched today and are town.

Fixed.

And done. If you are town and I am alive tomorrow I will be an Avatar of your vengeance and follow your gut with gusto.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

And Han it is abundantly clear that you are trying much harder than scare today.

You have been putting in The Work
Scare has generally not done a lot since he committed to his alleged scan result in you.

But working harder today does not mean you are town. I've seen prodigious efforts made by caught scum to eek out I've extra mislynch before the lynch.

Hell, iirc you put up a decent fight in Blade mafia day 2 as well when I Hid behind you the night before and very clearly telegraphed it. You were dead to rights but you fought the lynch and tried to present an argument why my death might have meant something else.

And it's a good trait to have regardless of alignment.

And if you flip town I WILL give a lot of weight to everything you have presented today. I understand that not much consolation, but it's all I have to offer.

Break is ending now. I should be back again before deadline.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

benjamin3740 posted...

htaeD posted...

benjamin3740 posted...

It's not possible Han plays this way as scum. It's not possible Scare plays this way as scum.

So let''s kill Lolo or Pendragon.

Its not possible for both situations to be not possible. So lets not.

Yes, I know. But another night reveals more info on which side is right.

.

Ahem.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

If someone tries to end today with a vote on someone other than Han or Scare there will be consequences. Feel free to discuss others and scum hunt, but a splinter vote in this specific situation where one of them MOST is a complete cop out and it will not be tolerated.

I repeat ending today with a vote on anyone else will not be permitted.

---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Less than 30 post left. Let's try not to 500 this one
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

@UltimaterializerX
@eaedwards6400

We're on page 10 and stuff.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

In fairness to Han, if he used bodyguard on Chris and died we would not have known that's what happened and would have assumed scum killed Han.

Han was tried to lynch Chris are end of day. I wouldn't see that and then the next morning assumed Han saved Chris.

It might even have been enough to mislynch Chris over. Except for the fact that he could have claimed his shot on red, but that's not something bothering bodyguard Han could have predicted.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Really, it's just that you're being so close-minded that I cant help but think you're Scum.

Why do you keep saying this? I have never once said that scare is definitely town and you are definitely scare.

I know it's a risk and the chance exists it could go in either direction. But I've made decision and I based it on thinking scare would not have initiated such a hard "me or him" suicide as scum. I'm open to the idea that it could go the other way, but I'm sticking with my choice.

And no, it was not saying you scanned me into. It doesn't matter now what it was.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

I am not mayor.

You said 'FD is good people' in your first post today.

That caused me to think a certain thing.

And had you gone on to say a certain thing I'm sure I could have said something else that would have settled the matter of you vs scare in your favor.

But you didn't say the words, which tells me I was incorrect in the thing that I initially thought. Which means I can't save you.

Yup.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Forceful_Dragon posted...

...where one of them *MUST be scum* is a complete...

Fix'd
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Anyways I've made up my mind for today so I may as well step across the line in the sand.

##vote: han

I'm going to get some more sleep and then when I wake up I'll look at day 1 like I was planning on doing before. I've said all I can say about scare v. han. If the vote ends up going the other way then hopefully I'm wrong.

If someone tries to end today with a vote on someone other than Han or Scare there will be consequences. Feel free to discuss others and scum hunt, but a splinter vote in this specific situation where one of them MOST is a complete cop out and it will not be tolerated.

I repeat ending today with a vote on anyone else will not be permitted.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

A. You playing this bad (hurry durr follow duh scan)

Yeah, I'm following the scan. You never said the 4 magic words that would have flipped this script on its head. Thems the breaks.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Ok, FD is lying here. He has seen Scare liter in this manner recently.

I've seen him make fake claims and then retreat to a real claim, yes. And he appears to have done that with his fair towards death. I think it would have been better if he picked someone besides death, perhaps one of the newer players to get a reaction from, but regardless he did what he did.

And then he said this.

ScareChan posted...

I will not be altering any information I have given further today. Han is my true scan. If I walk anything back feel free to lynch me immediately

And I admit, it could be a lie. I've never said that there is a 0% chance it's a lie. But I don't think it is.

If it is then we will deal with that tomorrow and it sucks. But I just don't see scare making that play. He could have stayed with death if he was just trying to suicide 1::1.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

For those wondering - FD is incredibly lazy as Scum. His strategy as Scum is pretty much always to bus one Scummate, say "see? Told you they were Scum" then coast to endgame while providing very infrequent walls of text with little real information.

That is false. Like, utterly and verifiably false.

.

I was incredibly lazy once in recent memory as scum.

Because I was scum lawyer.

And literally the only way I could just not being night killed was by being so "worthless" that I could make an argument for scum having more important people.

In fact that is the ONLY time I've rolled scum in literally years since I only started playing mafia again in May.

Let's check the tape, shall we?

Phoenix Wright: Town Nilla
Blade: Town Super Hider
Tiny Toons: Town Detective
Chris Music: Scum Jack (with a lawyer use)
TV Crossover: Town Vanilla
Monster: Town Vanilla
Danganronpa: Town Vanilla

So yeah, get dunked on, Han. Unless you are saying my sample size of ONE mafia game in the past 8 means jack shit. I've been almost exclusively town, and I've had some mediocre games, but my last game was rock solid and I'm off to a great start in this one. Nothing you can say changes that.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Shonen_Bat posted...

We're taking it for granted that one of Han/Scare is scum but like, how do we know that for sure? My gut feeling's been telling me all day that this is a poor trail to follow and Lolo has conveniently been absent for nearly all of day 2 after attracting suspicion day 1.

Let me break it down.

If scare is telling the truth then had targeted Chris despite saying he targeted nobody.

This means Han is 100% scum if scare is telling the truth.

.

If scare is town there is no reason for him to lie about this. His credibility as town will be shot for years.

.

Now scare could be lying if he's the scum.

.

But there are ZERO (0) scenarios possible with town+town. It just isn't possible.

I recognize that scare could be the scum, but that's a gamble I'm willing to take.

.

And Han I know it isn't a "trade" so to speak, but there is a risk of being wrong regardless. And for what it's worth, if you are town then I REALLY appreciate everything you've been doing today. Your digging and hard work is noted and I will definitely be taking your thoughts to heart moving forward if they are confirmed to be town thoughts on your flip. So by all means keep it up.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

ScareChan posted...

I guarentee you by the way that if Chris were here he sides with me

because like FD said, when in doubt you take out the bg here over the jack

and if Han flips town I am dead to rights and you guys lynch me afterwards
(which wont happen, Han is scum but I am giving you game theory here)

lynching Han is always mechanically correct

My name is FD and I support this message.

Seriously, if scare is scum then I'll takes the trade.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

We don't even have a scanner for you to guard.

Scare has the potential to fully PREVENT a kill.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Doopliss_Power posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Eh, I'm still siding with scare here.

The risk/reward here greatly favors a han lynch.

If we lynch one of them and they're Town, we lynch the other.

Thus, the only risk/reward involved is who's more likely to be scum.

Scare is far, far more likely to be scum.

Call it 50/50
Call it 80/20
Call it 30/70

Break down the likelihoods however you like and the fact remains that one of them MUST be scum. And one of them is probably telling the truth unless they are both scum.

The benefit of a successful scum han lynch outweighs the benefit of a successful scum scare lynch.

The downside of a town scare mislynch is WORSE than the downside of a town Han mislynch.

.

Han is the way to go today.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

FD, you're not a good enough player to have an impact on saving me.

Go back to playing Switch. It's evident that you're comfortable sitting on Red flipping Scum and you're not going to try for the rest of this game.

Hey, fuck you too then.

There was something I could have said that would have absolved you. Absolutely. But you didn't say the magic words, so the situation is apparently not as I had envisioned.

And I'm not playing switch, I'm at work and I'm reading as fast as I can on my breaks so I can provide input.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

But dang it Han. I thought we had a special connection this game. You didn't say the magic words I needed to hear to save you :/
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Eh, I'm still siding with scare here.

The risk/reward here greatly favors a han lynch.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Anyways work is starting. I'll be around on breaks
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Man, if you actually read the game, you would know that I had to be lying about the vanilla claim.

I understand that and I have some specific thoughts about these possibilities.

But you are going to need to give us something.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

It doesn't make scare definitely anything.

And Ben isn't on the table for a lynch today so we will know Scare's alignment first anyways.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Pirate_Harris posted...

Ah sorry, must've misread the statement. But with that being said, I'm not down with a han lynch, nothing han has done made me think that he's scum... I have to see Unrefutable proof that han is indeed scum before I put a vote down.

Being tracked to the kill.

While claiming to not have a night action.

Is not refutable.

So you either think scare is scum suiciding for no reason into the claimed nilla OR han is scum.

.

If we lynch scare today the worst case is that we will our own Jack.

If we lynch Han today the worst case is that we kill or own vanilla.

In addition to scare being unlikely to do this kamikaze as scum, believing scare has the safer of the two downsides.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Pirate_Harris posted...

Thank you, Ben has been making scare out to be super town... praising him and his actions all day 1, going with scares short special on death, then flipping votes around at the last minute which costed town a mislynch. If that doesn't make ben look scum, then I shall eat my own hat...

Yes, it makes Ben look scum, but not scare.

And Han: if you are sticking to your nilla claim I really don't see any reason not to side with scare here.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Pirate_Harris posted...

Are you suggesting scare is actually vanilla fd?

.

No.

Han is claimed vanilla.

If we lynch him and he's town then we lynched a vanilla.

But in doing so we gain proof positive that Scare is scum.

.

I'm really not sure how I could have been any more clear.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Pirate_Harris posted...

I find scares mind games to be not beneficial because no one other than ben is buying it (which makes ben look bad if scare flips scum)

I think you are right that Ben looks bad, but I disagree with the specifics of your analysis.

Keep in mind that scum know who among them killed Chris. But they don't know if anyone else also targeted Chris. Be it cop, detective etc. And so if someone from town gets tracked to their kill they are going to lean into that and try to capitalize on the good luck that an innocent person was tracked to their kill.

That is how I view it going down.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Worst case scenario we lynched a vanilla today and scum tomorrow. Scare has said he's not budging his claim any further.

.

Now with all that said there are 4 words that Han could say to me specifically that would change my mind. But if those words apply to him then he should know what they are. Otherwise our heading today is clear.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Scum to town.

Unless scare is actually lying.

And then suiciding..

To kill...

A claimed nilla?

.

Yeah I'm going to give scare more credit than that.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Pirate_Harris posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

Im just gonna put out there that I havent felt good about Han all game and that last minute train on Chris hasnt helped.

You could argue the Jedi lynch was a last minute train that deflected off scare and his train. Han never came on the Jedi lynch and focused his attention on Chris's attitude and sudden Jedi lynch with detailed reasoning

You could argue that scare was the train that was deflecting from the red lynch.

Which it was.

I was surprised yesterday with the enthusiasm and speed that people abandoned the red lynch. That does not feel like a scum to scum transition.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Sooo.. my switch arrived yesterday. Consequently I played it a bunch and haven't done the digging through day 1 that I hoped. <_<

But if I have time at work I will be analyzing yesterday's votes in detail.

.

And regarding scare, I am not inclined to believe that he would 1 for 1 in this spot, especially with no pressure to do so. I'm willing to take him at his word. And worst case it's a 1 for 1. It being Han is surprising though. I had other thoughts about Han's alignment. But if Han is sticking to his vanilla claim then believing scare seems to be the best play today.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

benjamin3740 posted...

FD, can you show me? Because this is the last thing I remember regarding you

DoomTheGyarados posted...

benjamin3740 posted...

Chris before the day is over I wanna get your big ol town list. And point out if you think anything on mine is wrong.

I

Doop and FD.

Yeah.

That's his town list.

No?
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Oh. ONE MORE THING.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

FD is good people.

*Waggles eyebrows seductively*
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

But before I get into catching up, let me just bust a mighty flex .

I'm on fucking fire these last 2 games. I wasn't convinced red was scum when night voted him 10 posts into the topic, obviously, but I became more sleep more convinced as the day progressed. I even stood my ground against Chris trying to move the lynch elsewhere (until he claimed 100% knowledge that scare was scum) and rather than follow him onto the pointless jedi lynch I stuck to my guns.

I'm going to assume that Chris shot red though, so for that I will forgive Chris for the way he dominated the course of the end of day 1. Ill go a step further even and assume Chris only did that because he had decided he was going to use his vig shot already and wanted to get info from a lynch that he wasn't already going to blow away.

But regardless, I'm awesome and I'm clearly town.

And my break is ending so I'll be back later.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

benjamin3740 posted...

Pendragon71037 posted...

I mean, I'd like to take a look at Han, or maybe FD, but since people seem to want to wait until tomorrow for Han, and Chris seems to think FD is Town...sure, I can be patient.
Meanwhile, this:
DoomTheGyarados posted...

Jedi has done worse than nothing, I actively tried to get him engaged and he ignored me.

Is good enough for me. Well, that's not true, but combined with my memory of him -and, yeah, that's pretty much how it went- I can get behind a Jedi lynch.

##Vote: Jedi

Chris did not think FD was town. I said FD was town once and Chris said I was wrong. If FD was a real sucm read I think you wouldnt have gotten Chris' feelings toward FD wrong, and thus wouldnt have let it sway you?

This is not accurate.

Chris did call me town, and he did it near the end of day as well. There was only one point during the day at which he questioned me.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

The only thing I'll say about Chris is to repeat what I said earlier:

Forceful_Dragon posted...

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Basically the problem I have with this is we are 5 hours from deadline and we should be consolidating.

I take issue with this. Until the scare train left the station we already had consolidation.

I'll be able to get some good info if everyone defects to the scare lynch though so it's not an inherently bad thing to occur. But it's odd for you to speak for consolidation as you rip up it's foundations.

Unless by consolidate you mean "follow me implicitly to whichever lynch I'm supporting at the time". Because over today you've been causing the votes to go in several different directions and not in a way I would consider consolidation.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Hey Red, I don't want to tag you, but can you read my post about Chris and agree with me, please?

Same with you FD. Get off your lazy (lazy FD is Scum) butt and analyze my thoughts on Chris.

I see merit to your points.

I would still rather lynch red.

Speaking of data points there were a lot of people joining and leaving the red lynch for various poorly explained reasons. Red's flip will reveal much about those active. We're they seeking a convenient time to join a mislynch? We're they trying to get in on a scum lynch early to collect town points? Why was everyone so quick to hop off once Chris led them to new pastures?
These are questions I want to give context to, rather than being stuck with hypotheticals.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

This is dumb. I went with scare because Chris' guaran-damn-teed it.

If we aren't doing that then I'm going back to red. The only reason red was being spared was because of scare's train. Red has done nothing to deserve clemency.

Further Jedi's lynch will tell us nothing about the people voting for him, its just a whatever inactive lynch near the end of the day. If he isn't scum then it's actually pointless.

##unvote: scare
##vote: red
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

300+ posts is a lot to sort through on such a short break but I skimmed through a good chunk.

I see the Chris 100% guarantee and I see the scare botched claim.

I had a completely different more wild theory for Chris' certainty but alas. Perhaps I'll share that theory tomorrow.

##unvote: red
##vote: scare

See you next time, Space Cowboys
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Yeah I missed the last few words.

Anyways work is starting, I'll be around in a bit
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

benjamin3740 posted...

Does Terra enjoy being scum or something? He's replaced immediately in the last few games and was town

Umm.

You know he's town?
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Basically the problem I have with this is we are 5 hours from deadline and we should be consolidating.

I take issue with this. Until the scare train left the station we already had consolidation.

I'll be able to get some good info if everyone defects to the scare lynch though so it's not an inherently bad thing to occur. But it's odd for you to speak for consolidation as you rip up it's foundations.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Hbthebattle posted...

Look. I don't have the experience to be able to metagame effectively in this group. All I can do is use my own guesses and intuition. And the argument of voting Scare for doing nothing when there are several people who have done about the same as him doesn't sit right with me. I need more convincing evidence than the hydra thing.

So you're defending scare?

Or you think we should put 1-2 votes on each of the inactives and...hope for the best?

Because when the votes are splintered scum is able to affect the outcome without drawing as much attention to themselves, so you can see why that would be bad.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Meow1000 posted...

FD is traitor confirmed

If he loses by 2 votes then you have my apologies
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Dang I almost forgot to vote today thanks for the heads up.

Voted Pikachu
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

Anyways driving to work now, I'll be back off and on.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

DoomTheGyarados posted...

So I was thinking it over and I can't pin down Red day 1 for sure, so I did the good ole Chris strategy. I stopped looking at Red and I looked at what was going on around him.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Ok red is town.

What changed your mind?
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

htaeD posted...

Dont like

Don't care. It makes me suspicious when people agree with me in mafia. It makes me suspicious when people say good things about me. I don't have any trust that I'm not being played at any given point.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

DoomTheGyarados posted...

FD if I was Gambler I'd have shot Scare in the face already.

That appeal to emotion is such scum.

And yet you have said yourself that your ability to town clear is much superior to your ability to scum hunt. If you can muster the support for a scare lynch then by all means I won't argue against it because scare hasn't done anything to warrant defense from me. But I'm going to support getting the information that I want from they lynch today.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw

I would be remiss if I didn't admit that it IS concerning that so many have joined the red lynch in such non-committal ways. But I take solace knowing that if red flips town I have a good place to look for scum in the poor votes that accumulated.
---

~C~ FD
https://imgur.com/dGDfxaw