Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

But regardless of ctes some things remain unchanged.

-Faith in Kirby is more or less unquestionable, despite his abysmal action last night
-Ditto for Chang except for the night action part.
-Ulti feels much more likely to be town than not just based on the fact that the redirection occurred. It's an odd thing to do if the cop scans aren't real.

I can include myself as confirmed from my own perspective at least so that gives 4 confirmed* town in 11 remaining with at most 3 scum left.
(*as confirmed as you get without being dead and host flipped anyways)

So today is either 9 vs 2 or worst case 8 vs 3.

If 8 vs 3:
6 vs 3 after a mislynch.
5 vs 3 if IGCD shoots and misses.

So with only 1 mislynch and a failed vig shot we'd actually at Mylo, the vig shot on town wouldn't end the day right? But without the vig shot we'd have 2 mislynches before Lylo. Now ideally the shot hits so it's a moot point, but that's worst case scenario, Mylo tomorrow.

Or if 9 vs 2 then 2 mislynches and a fail vigi still puts us at 4vs2 = Mylo.

But I'd like to think it would be all but impossible to mislynch twice in a row from this spot.

Next we'll assume Ctes is scum.

My strongest belief is that he's not actually bookie and he really is Evil Troy who operates almost identically to how I proposed earlier. Either to lose his vote, but appear town, or to keep his vote, but scan scum. No bets, no RNG, just those options. Hell there might not even be options if he's lying, it might just be he's Evil Troy so he lost his vote for X number of days because that's what happens when you try to swallow a flaming troll doll. We have no way to prove the scanning guilty part which could just be a fabrication to make the redirection make less sense. "Why would I redirect a possible red scan to myself if I knew there was a chance I would scan guilty the second time around??" It just becomes WIFOM at that point.

So yeah, that's where I'm at for scum ctes theory. Scum thought they were going to get another "Ctes is innocent" result tonight and he would have enough goodwill to coast on "it would be really bad for town if I full claim today" (which honestly isn't true based upon the claim we eventually got, if anything it feels pro town for scum to have an additional reason to question their night target)

But then who is scum with ctes? Hell if I know. Red or MI both still benefit from the redirect for the same exact logic as the Town Ctes scenarios above. It would be small jackpot for the same action to not only prevent a red guilty scan but to also result in a second ctes innocent scan, so that feels more likely? Because it's easier for either Red or MI to defend themselves from the other person being scanned innocent, much harder to defend yourself from your own guilty scan. Not conclusive either way.

Finally home and on PC. I've been mulling over the whole thing trying to wrap my brain around it and the different scenarios and it's hard to find logic that really fits everything that we know. It stands to reason that there's things we don't know and it's also possible that scum behaved illogically for precisely the kind of distraction that today has become.

.

I'm going to first assume that Ctes is innocent and truthful about how his role works.

If so, what do we know?

For one, his role sucks. It's not a good role. It has potential, but it's significantly worse than 50/50, I don't think it would ever be in our best interest for him to bet his own life. The odds are too slim, the EV is too low and the chance of town death is too high. And even in instances where itdoes work it's such a slow anti-tempo role. Making a fantastic guess only to get a prosty scan the following night? That's basically just an every-other-night prosty who can only act if they are also a predictive God.

But sure, we're saying he's town, and he has a shitty role, moving on. Next we can pretty safely say that scum assumes he scans innocent and always would scan innocent. Even in a world where Ulti is scum with Lopen's claim he would have no reason not to believe town ctes scans innocent.

Scum also would have no reason prior to today to believe that Ctes would have any trouble claiming his role, because why would he?

So if Ulti is town, the redirection between Red/Ctes was to take a scan on red and turn it into a second "Ctes is innocent" result. But the kirby roleblock on Ulti was not anticipated.
This could support red being scum trying to avoid a guilty scan on himself.
This could support MI being scum trying to avoid a town scan on red and becoming the presumptive lynch.

Alternatively, if Ult is scum, the redirection between Red/Ctes was irrelevant to the scan result because the scan we would receive would be a lie anyways. Ulti would simply say he received a Ctes result against despite targeting red. Now that's murkier because Ulti not only claimed to have targeted MI (which doesn't fit the redirection) but also because he knew he was roleblocked before Kirby said. So if he's scum then he still did something that wasn't a kill. And it wasn't the redirection because that still occurred. It also wouldn't be vote suppression because Ctes in this scenario is assumed town and claims to have done it to himself. So scum ulti does something, gets roleblocked and realizes now he can't claim to have received a second Ctes scan, so for good measure he claims he wasn't even targeted red to begin with?
For the same reason as above this could speak to red being both scum or town. Either a ploy to protect red for a fake guilty scan (though Ulti could just fake an innocent scan on red if they wanted to commit to it) or to protect MI from the inno "scan" on MI.

It's much more convoluted for Ulti to be scum in that scenario so I still buy him as town.

But that still doesn't give a clear answer on the redirection. If we're assuming the scans exist, then it could still have either been to prevent a red guilty scan OR to prevent a red innocent scan. So the redirect had to be both red and someone who was previously scanned to prevent any new information from being gained last night. That leaves Ctes or Death.

.

So trying to work it out in this way, that is what I would conclude if I assume Ctes is town and truthful:
-Likely a scum between Red/MI since either stands most to benefit from the redirection
-And possibly a bonus point in favor of Godfather Death theory since Ctes was selected for the redirection rather than him.

I don't think it says much about anyone else, but I could be missing an angle, it's confusing.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Scum however, definitely benefits from having this knowledge.

I still don't understand how.

TotallyNotMI posted...

Is it? He doesn't ever have to prove anything

He proved that he can't vote at least. So whether that's his actual role or something else is, there is actually a loss of vote mechanic involved.

The part I don't really understand though, is ctes effectively has to be perfect 2 nights in a row for us to receive a tangible benefit. He would have to guess correctly night 5 to receive something and then actually use the thing successfully night 6, it's so slow

If he can actually bet his life on guessing the NK then I'd say he probably doesn't ever do that, so he would just be a really damn unlikely prosty/double voter.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Because they choose the thing I bet on of course.

Which changes.. what exactly? Can you think of not unlikely night kills than the ones we've seen so far? Isquen and Sbell were wayyy out in left field. At least MZero can be reasonably explained by his own night action, though it's equally possibly he was directly shot.

I still don't like it for flavor reasons, but that is... oddly specific.

Have we seen a role like this before?

ctesjbuvf posted...

This role has so much potential to be fun but you're straight up not allowing it.

You had 4 nights already. And if it was truly RNG that screwed you then shit that sucks but sometimes that's the breaks.

ctesjbuvf posted...

How the f*** can anyone insist something is smart that the rules of the game straight up says isn't.

Those rules are copy pasted and say nothing of how likely Lea and Sultan were to pick flavor that fits.

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Is there a limit to how many you can send out? I'm not sure if this has been asked yet.

No limit, it's just an every night ability. The only quirk is that I must use my ability each night. I don't have the option not to act.

I also helped the lynch on knightz day 1 by pushing him on flavor related justifications that he was completely unable to answer resulting in multiple flubs. Which is less to toot my own horn and rather justify that flavor can have a purpose, especially when it all seems to fit very well.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Then more people should tell him to look for scum equity instead of going against host wish of no metagaming.

I think you're just upset that your flavor fit what you've revealed too well and I figured it out.

Sorry

As far as I can tell I can target the same person multiple times. Do you want me to just keep giving pineapples to chang?

Or hell I wouldn't mind being an option for Kirby's jailer action. Safety from death with no important role lost. (Though I still think Chang is a better target for that)

ctesjbuvf posted...

Also did FD seriously spend time looking at what could possibly fit with a role.

Nah I just consulted my Community themed pocket encyclopedia.

You were the one suggesting that "the hosts just wanted a bookie" and that they couldn't think of anything better than starburns.

ctesjbuvf posted...

You guys are forgetting that my positive effects are tied to what I bet most of the time.

How can we "forget" something you haven't really told us about.

Please explain.

That wasn't too be dramatic or for effect. I literally want you to explain.

Okay, characters in community who could be a Bookie:

Coach Bogner from the Billiards episode. He makes a very with Jeff about whether or not you can play billiards in shorts.

Juergon, Karl, Lukas or Reinhold. The German Foosball players. They wager access to the foosball table in a match against Jeff.

Richard, Joe or Pearl, the 3 old friends of Leonard who in one episode are bad influences on Pierce and are seen playing poker before the Dean showed up to break it up.

.

Characters not seen doing any gambling or wagering: Starburns

He has star shaped sideburns
He gets a lizard at one point
He does drugs
He sells drugs
He fakes his death in a drug lab explosion

That's about it.

And there might be even more better suited characters for Bookie, but there's also the fact that Ctes has yet to demonstrate any actual Bookie-ing.

But based on the partial claim information we have from Ctes I'm sticking with this:

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I think ctes is Evil Troy.

Evil Troy loses his voice when trying to eat a flaming troll roll (yes, really) and he is later seen speaking using some kind of mechanized voice box.

So I think his two options are to stay silent (lose his vote) and scan innocent (because he looks like regular Troy)

Or to keep his vote (voice) but it gives him away so he scans guilty.

ctesjbuvf posted...

That red and I are faking that?

If red is faking then he did a masterful job. I thought it was really strange last night when he started to ask me about my action confirmations, but now it fits.

Meow1000 posted...

Death+MI
Death+Red
Ulti+Ctes

Those are the three most likely specific pairs of scum.

Death/Ben
MI/Red

Are likely unpaired.

Who's the third scum in the three scenarios above is what I'm asking myself.

If the scum roles are all as overpowered as it seems then there might not be a 3rd

htaeD posted...

Oh yeah Ben
Another possible townpower that could get caught in the bus if scum did try swap red with Ctes.

Ben's role is immune based on action orders as far as I can tell.

1. Any necessary and hopefully unlikely host intervention
2. Strongman/poison
3. Any ability for which it is convenient to act early such as recruiter, neighborizer messenger or backup.
4. Roleblocking
5. Any form for redirection
6. Role stealing
7. Any form for kidnapping or commuting
8. Anything that does not fall into the other categories
9. Regular killing abilities

Was I the only one who read this thing?

ctesjbuvf posted...

Making every town charcater fit perfectly with flavor is probably not good game design actually.

There's a different between roles that don't match exactly and roles that are not even fucking close.

If you don't like that you can take it up with Maria, Lady of the Astral Clocktower, Vanilla

ctesjbuvf posted...

Okay say you really wanted your game to include town bookie, do you have a good character for that? If not, what do you then do, scratch the idea completely or find something that's close enough?

You are blatantly doing what the hosts tell you in the opening post not to and if you're town I seriously hope this is the final lesson.

I'm convinced there is an episode or a character that could fit a bookie, they had so many bizarrely themed episode. I bet if I think on it I could think of at least a couple that fit better than Starburns.

Also there's the fact that we have no evidence of any good effects happening and you won't even clarify the mechanics of the bet.

You're giving us shit and telling us to just look the other way.

htaeD posted...

Back to where is...what?

Waiting for ctes to show up.

Hey guys, where is ctes? I sure wish he would show up and claim for us.

changmas posted...

pointless to use seems better than it's worked out for you thus far

If I wasn't already convinced you were town I would be loving this.

ctesjbuvf posted...

No you have decided that flavor metaing was so successful with Mr. T that you decided to ignore the host message that it is a bad idea.

Is a game where EVERY flavor we've seen flip so far has been pitch perfect including my own? Yes

ctesjbuvf posted...

Believe me

I don't

If ctes won't put forth an alternative then I'm sticking with my explanation. He's evil Troy and he has to lose his vote to scan innocent

Leafeon13N posted...

Theres an evil variant of that and i am curious what you are using to dispel that notion out of hand.

The evil variant (a) only existed for like a scene and didn't leave enough of an impact for those of us who actually watched the show to remember it existed and (b) never gave anyone canisters of frozen sperm. That is an exclusively regular Pierce thing.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I would say yes. Plus, I don't see what you would need them for.

But you were warming up to voting me before you asked for that.

If you get to pick which negative might occur then why not reveal all of them? It sounds like it's up to you anyways.

.

Kirby321 posted...

I'm also struggling to believe why Ulti hasn't been shot dead by redirecting Blade if there's some redirection tomfoolery going on here with FD's cannisters of love.

This is the first one that hasn't gone to the right person. I still think this is some kind of deflection inherent to ctes, but if not it's probably some kind of limited use thing.

htaeD posted...

And cops generally do get a name.

That is my assumption as well

The fact that he won't even say what he's betting on is confusing me. Or is it just a coin flip and he's lost 4x in a row.

1/16 would be unusual but not impossible

ctesjbuvf posted...

Maybe you stop with your setup/flavor meta s*** now and we start playing mafia again.

How can we, you've still only given half a claim

ctesjbuvf posted...

The flavor is Starburns

Oh you claimed while I was typing that.

How does your flavor justify anything you've revealed so far?

Screw it, I'll do it from mobile.

I think ctes is Evil Troy.

Evil Troy loses his voice when trying to eat a flaming troll roll (yes, really) and he is later seen speaking using some kind of mechanized voice box.

So I think his two options are to stay silent (lose his vote) and scan innocent (because he looks like regular Troy)

Or to keep his vote (voice) but it gives him away so he scans guilty.

This theory doesn't explain how my love canister got to red, but maybe certain actions deflect off of him onto random targets. That part is less clear but the rest of it fits the flavor of Evil Troy too perfectly.

##Vote: Ctes

TotallyNotMI posted...

FD you just get a successful message? It doesn't say who you targeted?

As I already confirmed to red yes, just successful.

Anyways I'm at family event right now, but when I get home I can give my ctes flavor theory. I suggest he claims before then

Leafeon13N posted...

Okay I have to add my puzzle piece because something is missing.

I received FDs pineapple.

Well that explains the sudden interest in asking me about my confirmation. I definitely targeted Ctes last night.

What are the things you MIGHT have gained then?

We're trying to solve a puzzle and you're holding some of the pieces hostage

Jesus I slept so much last night, I must have needed it.

Ctes, it's sounding like all your bets or guesses have failed, but even knowing WHAT your were betting on tells us something by virtue of learning what did NOT happen.

And yes, give the damn flavor. I have a theory that sprang to mind, but I want to give you a chance before I say it

Kirby321 posted...

Why does scum Ben even say anything at EoD? The whole reason a train got started was because he opened his mouth and voted Red.

Because sometimes scum screws up?

We'd have never lynched knightz if we convinced ourselves that scum is incapable of making obvious mistakes.

Why tie his own vote to yours to begin with? Shows a lack of wanting to commit to his own reads

possibly, either way your lynch wasn't happening and Ben was an option I could (and still can) support.

The Ben train was unexpected, but welcome.

Leafeon13N posted...

Like if people wanted to lynch ben we had 47.9 hours to mske the argument.

Turning it into a special was ???.

I made my argument. His flavor is shit and his BP walk back is suspicious and the logic for his lies is questionable. That qualified Ben as the one special I was happy to join

Leafeon13N posted...

There wasn't anywhere to be. People went crazy.

It was frustrating to watch.

I meant your lynch.

You were surpassed by Ben and then by Peaf.

Leafeon13N posted...

What are you trying to say here kirby.

Un-scanned

I think

Actually IGCD doesn't have a shot because like 8 people reacted to the Ben votes by voting Peaf. Red seemed solidly on the sidelines by that point

Kirby321 posted...

Scum would be hella gambiting on Blade not protecting Ulti.

Something he has claimed to do 0 times up to that point.

TotallyNotMI posted...

I think we know Ben neighbored Kirby, didn't they say that?

Yup, overlooked that post.

Maybe Ben is responsible for Kirby making the reckless play instead of the safe one?

Not much happened during the days though so I'm probably gonna delete those columns moving forward. Sheet's getting too squahed.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/17700f32.png

For night actions I think we're still missing Ben and Blade and still waiting to find out if ctes can finally vote.

And still missing scum/town lists from several

Leafeon13N posted...

What do you get back anyway FD. some variant of "action successful"?

Yes, I just get told my action was successful.

Leafeon13N posted...

How much do we trust ctes, role meta aside?

I can't recall anything particularly egregious that he's said or done. I think he made some really good posts on day 1 regarding Knightz that helped secure that lynch, but that was overall a group effort so it's hard to know if it wasn't just scummate piling on.

TotallyNotMI posted...

I've been targeted twice before last night that weren't blocked

But I thought Blade was blocked by Corrik?