Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

Oh, and the Walking Dead-Bastion match ranked in on another list besides "closest wire-to-wire". Apparently we still haven't reached the point where there have been 25 Round 1 matches that 2 in 3 brackets had wrong; Bastion's 33.31% prediction rate was good enough to sneak onto the list at #24.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

InsaneGamer137 posted...

For me, Legend Of Zelda Breath Of The Wild Over Super Mario Galaxy 2

DoctorBIind posted...

Same

Luckily my picks have been fairly atrocious so far. If I actually won the Guru this year it'd be the ultimate Pyrrhic Victory, because SMG2 is a trash game.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Fire Emblem Awakening
Stella Glow
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Shin Megami Tensei IV
Shin Megami Tensei IV: Apocalypse
Pokmon X/Y
Pokmon Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2: Record Breaker
Unchained Blades
Bravely Default
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: Dual Destinies
Lord of Magna: Maiden Heaven
Zero Time Dilemma
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked
Detective Pikachu

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

I don't even remember what I went with in HZD-Fortnite. I think that was one of the many matches where I was like "one of these things is getting to Round 2 and that is sad".

Okay, good, Guru site says I am not one of the ones who picked Fortnite.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

LusterSoldier posted...

Monster Hunter: World vs. Bravely Default
Registered Vote Result:
Monster Hunter: World - 4827 (60.12%)
Bravely Default - 3202 (39.88%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Monster Hunter: World - 3549 (52.77%)
Bravely Default - 3177 (47.23%)

Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice vs. Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch
Registered Vote Result:
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 4871 (60.67%)
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 3161 (39.37%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 3605 (53.60%)
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 3120 (46.39%)

The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series vs. Bastion
Registered Vote Result:
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series - 3981 (49.58%)
Bastion - 4050 (50.44%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series - 2918 (43.38%)
Bastion - 3807 (56.60%)

Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age vs. The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC
Registered Vote Result:
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 6584 (82.00%)
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC - 1447 (18.02%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 5214 (77.52%)
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC - 1511 (22.47%)

With more than a 7% difference between registered and anonymous users in the Monster Hunter and Sekiro matches, we are officially in territory that only appeared twice during the entire 2018 contest (one of them being a rallied match). Aloy/D.Va and Monika/Wario were the only 2 matches in 2018 to have more than a 7% difference between registered and anonymous users.

The Walking Dead/Bastion had about a 6% difference, while Dragon Quest XI/Trails SC was about a 4.5% difference.

The overall trend from yesterday's matches was huge splits between registered and anonymous users, even greater than the usual splits we saw in the 2018 contest. If the effect of forced voting in all 4 matches wasn't already apparent, we may be seeing that effect even worse with the last set of matches.

Registered users only made up about 54.43% of yesterday's votes, a drop off from Day 1's 55.09%. But still well above the percentage of registered users for the 2018 contest. It was expected that the percentage of registered users would drop after Day 1 as more casuals on this site find out there's a contest running.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

Oh God, I'm screwed, aren't I?

Monster Hunter-Bravely Default I at least thought could go either way. Ironically I probably would've gone with Monster Hunter if it actually *was* a WRPG, but Capcom was such trash in 2018 that I figured the pseudo-Final Fantasy game would take it. Seeing that it was the registered voters that really carried MH is a bit disturbing...but not as disturbing as seeing that they were a lot higher on Sekiro than the anonymous voters. I never even considered the possibility of Sekiro winning that match, because Ni No Kuni is a JRPG and Sekiro is an action-adventure game. If I'd done the extra research and learned that despite the very Japanese name, it was in fact developed by Activision, a western company, I might've honestly considered taking Ni No Kuni to double it, and not out of any illusion that Ni No Kuni was anything but fodder itself.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=7

Please pay your respects to the walking dead.

RIP

(Bracket submission is still open)

LOL me, got that one right but was among the even smaller minority in the wrong on not one but both of the other two non-unanimous matches.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Leonhart4 posted...

Closest wire to wire matches is less significant in an era where we're lucky to get a quarter of what we used to average back in the day.

I agree 100%. That list is kind of dominated by the 2018 contest right now, and it wouldn't surprise me if this contest takes a number of spots as well.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Well, barring a huge surge from Bastion to increase its lead, this'll be just the 17th match in which the winner led wire-to-wire* without ever reaching a four-digit lead.

If you'd checked the wiki this morning, you'd have thought it to only be the 16th, but I've been reading old match write-ups on the wiki and apparently (on both the wire-to-wire list and the generalized non-1v1 list) nobody really bothered to notice that Snake never led Cloud by more than 819 in the 2008 semis.

* "Wire-to-wire" still allowing for lead changes after the freeze but within the first hour; Bastion didn't manage to take the lead until 45 minutes in but it hasn't looked back.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Didn't work, Nick.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

5tarscream posted...

Because nothing remains of Edith Finch.

azuarc posted...

Life is Strange lost because it didn't have Halo's reach.

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So this was supposed to be where people Ulti banned were supposed to go? Cute, real cute. If what you're saying is true, this post won't even go through, unless you finally unbanned me but I doubt that's the case.

Edit: Well, it went through, so I'm assuming that it was merely stated backwards and it's people who banned Ulti rather than people Ulti banned.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

pjbasis posted in Ulti's topic...

Pretty sure 2018 had very few results that would have changed if registered votes did not count double.

Phoenix/Ike, the first Pikachu/Mega Man, and the second Mario/Samus. The first two both merely flipped a close result; the last one was the only one where a character went from breaking 51% to not even winning.

Leonhart4 posted in the other topic...

Come to the SELF topic if you can't post here because you're blocked

You are welcome

Wait, we can't post in topics if the OP has us banned anymore? Well I guess that explains why you used the account with the numeral. Thanks, I guess.

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Fiop posted...

The Witness...a game I actually have too.

I don't have it, or even really know what it is, but that's mine too.

Though I can certainly understand where the New Leaf/Street Fighter V people are coming from; I too have New Leaf as the Ultimate Loser of Division 6, which means it just comes down to the second semifinal, where I assume most of them probably have Skyrim > Witcher 3. I have more faith in Nintendo, however, so I have Galaxy 2 > Skyrim.

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Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. Tekken 7 -
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds vs. Bayonetta - TsunamiXXVIII
Marvel's Spider-Man vs. Dead Space 2 -
Minecraft vs. Dota 2 - spooky96
Undertale vs. Octopath Traveler - MetalmindStats
Shovel Knight vs. Dragon's Dogma -
Devil May Cry 5 vs. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze -
Super Mario Odyssey vs. Mortal Kombat 11 -

Grand Theft Auto V vs. Baba Is You -
Cuphead vs. XCOM 2 -
Persona 4 Golden vs. FTL: Faster Than Light -
Red Dead Redemption vs. Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective -
Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Splatoon 2 -
Overwatch vs. Death Stranding -
Dragon Age: Inquisition vs. Ori and the Blind Forest -
Fire Emblem: Three Houses vs. South Park: The Stick of Truth -


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Hbthebattle posted...

Bravely Default: Flying Fairy is essentially FF without the FF
Making it actually Bravely Default: Lying Airy

Oh wow, I knew about how the F's get highlighted in a different color after a certain point in the game to show that, but I never made the connection that the game's subtitle literally has the initials FF, as in Final Fantasy.

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Whew, glad I decided to separate Bravely Default from the other two even though I had the underdogs winning outright in all three of those matches.Thought that that one could go either way.

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MAX parlay on Mass Effect/Borderlands 2/Fortnite

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squexa posted...

2008's wonky because of Snake.

Most people thought Link > Cloud > Snake but because of 4-way shenanigans, Snake beat Cloud twice and thus elevated a small group of people who made this correct call to the top. Some of them took a bunch of risks in the beginning that were possibly wrong but those early risks were worth much fewer points.

The thing to keep in mind is that not all risks are the same. Taking a round 1 upset is different than a semifinal/final upset.

It wasn't just Snake. Vincent had knocked Crono out of the contest in 2007, becoming the first character to ever beat a Noble Niner in a Contest Battle (L-Block did finish second to Snake in their R3 meeting and the Vincent > Crono was earlier in R4 than L-Block's matches), so he was favored to do so again in 2008, and furthermore the cookie then had Vincent taking advantage of Link's dominating SFF to advance past Mario and Samus in R5--which is exactly what Crono did.

And those are just the ones that the Guru winner got right. The Cookie also expected Kirby to advance in second place in Round 2, behind Master Chief, before going out in Round 3 behind Master Chief/Dante. Instead, it was Master Chief who finish second in R2 before going out in R3 behind Dante, while Kirby added an upset of Sonic in R4 for good measure. This was one that the winner got wrong, though it does help to explain why the runner-up had so many risks as well; he got it, well, a lot closer to right. Besides, absolutely no one correctly called Kirby getting past R4 so correctly calling him finishing in first place the previous two rounds was the best anyone did. Said runner-up also correctly called that the fourth character in the Samus/Vincent/Crono match would not be Ryu, but Pikachu.

And that doesn't even account for Weighted Companion Cube reaching Round 4, which only one Guru called correctly but they were a little too reliant on the jokes and had L-Block returning to the final. Or both Square characters advancing out of the Squall/Yoshi/Sora/Fox match in R2, giving Mewtwo a free pass to R4 in the wake of Cloud's SFF hammer (cookie expectation was that Yoshi would beat out Sora for second place behind Squall, then ride Cloud's SFF to get past Squall in R3.)

The winner might have been Link as usual, but yeah, 2008 had a lot of unexpected results along the way.

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50% on Ni No Kuni/Bastion parlay
50% on Bravely Default

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

LusterSoldier posted...

Monster Hunter is a JRPG series, which immediately puts it into this site's wheelhouse. It might not as popular as some other JRPG series on this site, but Monster Hunter: World has the advantage of being the first mainstream game outside of Japan from this series. With great JRPGs being extremely rare over the past decade, if a legitimately great JRPG is ever released, the site will flock to it to satisfy their JRPG urge.

True, but its opponent is also a JRPG, and while SE hasn't exactly been lighting it up lately either, this was more of a throwback to their earlier days than it was something new, and even modern SE I'd probably take over anything related to Capcom after the way they bombed all over the place last contest. The "handheld vs. console" evens it out, so I could certainly see MH winning, but I feel like this is a debatable match and would be very surprised if it wasn't close.

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Paratroopa1 posted...

what is this weird bit

why do so many people show up to the forums and immediately start doing weird bits

I assume they're redditors. Nothing like a good shitpost to get you in the reddit spirit. (I mainly hang out in the college sports sections. We're doing our own March Madness, available on YouTube.)

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I'm not sure which one scares me more--the relative absence of songs from series I've historically liked in Bracket A, making it likely that something I find terrible will retire, or the absolute mess of stuff I like in Bracket B along with a few strategically placed songs from series that have generally done well but I've often disliked (e.g. Exa Pico, sometimes Atelier--honestly it's mostly just Ayesha/Shallie that I've disliked; the rest has been fine).

Looking over Bracket B...officially, it's 6 of my nominations, which is not ideal, but I got 17 out of 20 in so I'm going to be averaging 4.25. Only problem is, there's also a song that I'd supported but pulled back on because it was getting enough support without me (Giratina), one that I would've supported but the post that first introduced it to me was the one that locked it up (Time for a Great Turnabout), and one song that I never even have to spend one of my own supports on because it'll always get in anyway (RFTMIS).

It does look like there's a fairly decent chance I'll get a retiree, even if not necessarily on one of my official supports. The bottom-left corner of Bracket B is pretty stacked with them.

*stares at bottom-right corner of Bracket C* Oh now that's just cruel. Officially a battle of two of my noms in R1, with one that, again, was already locked by the time I noticed it was even getting support but I would've definitely supported as a potential R2 opponent.

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Ocarina is going to be pretty hard for anything to beat without huge rallies. At least for now. Maybe far enough down the line, there'll be a sufficient userbase of "the kiddies" who don't know from how great Ocarina was and BotW will become the new standard-bearer.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

https://pastebin.com/msqdneDb

Tiebreaker: 3000000

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Yeah. Even though it's one I supported and I'm happy it's in, it kind of sucks that the one bubble spot went to a returner.

Then again, I was surprised when I saw it nominated because I could've sworn it had retired. I realize now what I was thinking of--one of those silly "bonus polls" that azuarc often puts in the opening posts of the voting topics had a bunch of winter-themed songs, Another Winter among them...along with Winterbliss, which is retired. Even though Race Around the World is by far the better Castle Crashers song.

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It worked well for me. Though I still can't believe that there was a 1-in-11 chance on the bubble and my only song on the bubble actually got in (though I actually had a 2-in-11 chance of getting something I wanted in in, because I stupidly figured that the bubble would be 4/4 instead of 5/3.)

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

...Okay, fair enough. I was kicking myself for dropping Marnie because I thought 5/3 would be safe, but it turns out that the one song that bubbled in was the one (unlocked) 5/3 that I still was supporting. So I think that puts me at 17/20 songs in the bracket.

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Ah, so that's what that means. Damnit, could've destroyed the bubble entirely if I weren't such an idiot.

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Damnit, it's looking ugly.

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I'm just going to be unhappy if the one I pulled because I figured 5/3 would be safe ends up missing out.

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...Or not. Holy crap, 4/4 is outright out?!

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Oh good, Brain Power got the noms it needed without my help; Snowman got the last second nom it needed, and icicles got a late nom and the de-nom from someone giving up on it was two seconds too late. I think I probably got 19/20 songs in?

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Damnit my computer was freezing up, couldn't get my de-nom together to nom Brain Power in time.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Oh, I knew Brain Power was VGM. Just too bad you waited this long.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

- Pokemon Black/White | Battle! Legendary Pokemon | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o20vpORCWdI
+ Celeste | Confronting Myself | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_oEDGONSc4

3/3 this close to the deadline isn't good enough.

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Oh wow it's looking like even 4/4 won't be safe for much longer. I was going to switch my double now that it had become a 5/4 but I think I've got to stay put! Unless there's another 4/4 I'm on that I like more...

...Nope.

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Don't do this to me! I don't even think Giratina's that great; I just nommed it to try to get it in. If it's got that much extra support, I'll go back to pushing for B/W's Legendary theme.

- Pokemon Platinum | Battle! Giratina | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YogtSeb_O9s
+ Pokemon Black/White | Battle! Legendary Pokemon | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o20vpORCWdI

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Oh FL81's got me covered.

- Pokemon Sword and Shield | Marnie Final Battle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YogtSeb_O9s (still 5/3)
+ Pokemon Platinum | Battle! Giratina | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YogtSeb_O9s (up to 4/3 and the bubble).

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

I am always all for more Pokmon music. And since 3/3 is no longer good enough, let's go with one that has a better chance of getting in.

- Pokemon Black/White | Battle! Legendary Pokemon | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o20vpORCWdI
+ Pokemon Sword and Shield | Marnie Final Battle | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YogtSeb_O9s

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Oh, wait, that's a double. So if I were to drop it, it'd fall to 4/2, not 4/3. Guess I'll just give up on my last-ditch effort, because I found something I like and it needs to turn around its recent vote bleed.

- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate | Battle! Zinnia | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC_xcdXhCFA
+ jubeat | Icicles | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDfj4ASy6sc

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Oh don't tempt me cako. I regretted dropping my last Touhou song the moment I did it.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Fine. One last try.

- Pokemon Platinum | Battle! Giratina | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YogtSeb_O9s
+ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate | Battle! Zinnia | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC_xcdXhCFA

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Yeah, I kind of wish I'd had the conviction to stick with some of my nominations. I've pretty much jumped ship from nearly everything, so now I've got nothing to go back to.

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Yeah, it's definitely looking like I might be done playing around with noms. The final stretch run is at an inconvenient time, and barring someone reviving one of the things I've dropped, I'm unlikely to do much playing.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Goddamnit I was hoping no one would notice that that hadn't been nommed yet. Time to...uh, wait, everything I've nommed is at 3/3 or better! I may actually have to start looking at stuff to see if there's any other 3/x's that I'd want to push up if it seems like I need to jump ship.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

*sigh* I know 4/2 isn't going to be enough. It's above the cut-line right now, but it's going to fall below it, and it's been at 4/2 since before the lock-in deadline so if anyone else was going to support it, they probably would have done so already. I'm going to cut my losses now and try to win back a lost support for another of my noms.

-- Touhou 4: Lotus Land Story | Cute Devil ~ Innocence | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HymHWSc--sY
+ Cave Story Plus | Running Hell | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBEoPb-JsJw
+ Pokemon Platinum | Battle! Giratina | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YogtSeb_O9s

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Sadly, I doubt I will unless there's more support than that. We're getting way too close to the end.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

Okay, okay, fine, I'll give up on another of my 2/2's. Should be down to just one of them, which I'm not giving up yet because it was one of my candidates for going 3/3 -> 4/3 before someone de-nommed it! (Like I said, I'm anticipating that 4/2 won't be sufficient to get in, which is where my only unlocked double sits, so I feel like the only way my double remains where it is would be if that song reached 5/3 before the cut line actually passes 4/2 by.)

- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate | Battle! Zinnia | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC_xcdXhCFA
+ Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE | Reincarnation | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iON8LyXYmBc

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Also known as Cyberchao X.

As of right now, all 3/3's would be in and all 3/2's would be out. So yeah, cutoff will probably end up being 4/3.

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Oh, yeah, I caught it in the first instance but forgot to correct it between the song title and the link.

+ Persona 4 | I'll Face Myself | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl74EmI0DxE

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Also known as Cyberchao X.