Lurker > LordoftheMorons

Sooooooo does Mitch go along with torching his most vulnerable members to help Trump go through with an obvious scheme to protect his friends and himself from SDNY's investigation, or does he figure that Trump is sunk anyway at this point and cut him loose?

I'd normally assume the former, but with Trump trailing Biden by like 10 points in the polls maybe his calculus changes and he moves to just trying to protect his majority.

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O8S beated

Guessing ultimates are going to be a lot more of an ordeal...!

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LvW is an above average Layton game and a below average AA game (still better than at least AA4, though)

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Very legal and very cool!

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SmartMuffin posted...

ding ding ding

When this all shakes out and is over, the IFR is going to be less than 0.5%. It's practically guaranteed.

If you assume that literally every single person in NYC was infected with the coronavirus and that all of those cases are resolved, you would still get a fatality rate of ~0.2%.

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red sox 777 posted...

If a big portion of the population has natural immunity, then herd immunity is much easier to reach.

I am leaning toward the idea of the antibody tests being right and a big share of the population having immunity already, whether by past infection or natural immunity, because the numbers are not surging as high as one would expect otherwise. The virus went from one city in China to massive waves of death across the world in 2 months. The number of active cases in Florida when they reopened was probably higher than the number of active cases in NY when they closed (or, if not, then almost certainly higher than 2 weeks before that). But, we haven't seen the exponential curve we saw earlier on. That suggests that the actual infection rate has been much higher and the fatality rate lower.

Voluntary distancing, masks, partial shutdowns, etc, all reduce R. There appear to currently be many states where R is above 1, but none where it's like 2.5 or whatever it was before we started taking precautions. That's still exponential growth, but it's much slower exponential growth than we were seeing before the shutdown.

I'm aware of no evidence whatsoever to suggest any sort of "natural immunity" (unless you mean truly asymptomatic cases, which we know do still spread the virus, albeit at a lower rate than symptomatic or presymptomatic people).

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red sox 777 posted...

That seems very low. What is your opinion on the studies regarding the percentage of people with antibodies? Those seem to consistently find an infection rate somewhere around an order of magnitude higher - I think the one done in Lombardy had 50%+ and NY was around 30%?

I've been struggling to make sense of the huge disparity between the antibody testing and the other testing.

NYC or NY state? The same 1% death rate estimate applied to NYC would give an estimate of about 20% of the city being infected. A death rate of ~0.66% would get you 30% infected.

I'm highly skeptical of the seroprevalence studies for areas without huge outbreaks (like the Santa Clara study that claimed a 3% prevalence a month or two ago was actually consistent with 0% prevalence if they considered false positives correctly), but they should be more reliable in areas that were extremely hard hit because false positives have a weaker effect on the results.

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It's either going to be Trumpism or pretending that they never supported Trump (like with Bush), so I don't think Haley's "reasonableness" combined with Trump apologism is going to work out for her either way

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I actually just totally forgot that Twin Snakes was a thing

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red sox 777 posted...

And where do you think we are for infection rate?

This isn't a super great estimate because of uncertainty about the exact fatality rate and lag, but if you assume a 1% true fatality rate then you estimate ~12 million actual cases for the US, which puts us around 3.7%.

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MGS1?

My first thought was actually FFVII before remembering that it's on Switch

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red sox 777 posted...

Are we at herd immunity yet? How much longer will it take?

No way. The rough approximation of what you need for herd immunity is 1-1/R. If R0 is, say, 2.5, that's 60% of the population. If steady state distancing/mask compliance gives us an R of 1.25, that's still 20% of the population (possible NYC has had that level of infection, but nowhere else in the US).

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Corrik7 posted...

It's hard to discuss it with people who keep shifting the goal posts regarding it, but cases rising also has a lot to do with testing rising. You can catch a lot more asymptomatics which aren't an issue and drive cases where before when only testing those with severe symptoms, you got less cases but more hospitalizations. It is like talking gibberish to people that keep cherry picking stats to show and such to support a narrative that was never the initial goal anyways.

Im perfectly aware that some of the increasing case counts are explained by increases in testing. That is absolutely not all thats going on in places like AZ, where the fraction of tests that are positive is also increasing.

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Cantwell the crying nazi?

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SmartMuffin posted...

Now do hospitalizations and deaths.

Cases rising while hospitalizations and deaths are flat to down is how we get out of this. The alternative is lockdown forever. People used to call me crazy for suggesting that is exactly what Democrats want, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that they do.

As you should be aware, deaths lag hospitalizations, which lag new cases. But as it happens, hospitalization data from AZ is extremely concerning!

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1274066399426732032

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New coronavirus cases are now pretty definitively back to going up overall in the US:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1273997897630171138

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xp1337 posted...

Also, FWIW, and this is more a teritary point to the question you're asking, I highly doubt Haley could win a Republican primary with where the party has gone with Trump.

You're looking more at someone like Hawley or Cotton, I think.

Vomit

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What the fuck

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1273763757592735746

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Apparently Knives Out is now on Prime Video, so I'm rewatching it

Great movie!

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Was having a hard time picking something but I guess I'm out of time!

FF XIV - Invincible (starts at 5:37; I think you may have already ranked the first phase's song). Huge spoilers for FFXIV Shadowbringers; do not watch if you're playing through the game and aren't done with 5.0. (I'm gonna add a space to the link just in case).

https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=9O5-yJjJpZ4

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I'm not

Gimme more games!

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Ill admit Im shocked (in a good way) by the gesture, but sweet Jesus anyone but Stacey Abrams

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/klobuchar-withdraws-veepstakes-says-biden-should-pick-woman-color-n1231501?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't pick Harris

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

https://twitter.com/lydiaburrell/status/1273767665652375562?s=21

Oh god that Rick Santorum song earlier in that thread

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

With July looming I wonder if theyll pass further unemployment benefits at least.

So far Mitch is refusing to consider doing so

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Of the 6-5 twists, I saw Amara being Rayfa's mother way ahead of time, Dhurke being dead I think in the lobby segment prior to the reveal, and Garan not being able to channel completely blindsided me (even though I think a lot of people said they saw it coming way ahead of time).

Since you never commented on it and I didn't remember when it came up exactly: I haaaaaaaaaaaaated the throwaway joke of Inga's middle name. I would have minded a lot less if they had done it to some joke character, but for him it was just so dumb.

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Tbqh I hadn't heard of Juneteenth either. I'm pretty certain it didn't come up in school.

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Wow, the MT Senate seat appears to be in play:

https://twitter.com/jessicataylor/status/1273587915982077953?s=21

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Got my O4S mount

O8S up next!

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I made the mistake of watching this and now must pass my suffering onto all of you:

https://twitter.com/CalNBC/status/1273416410283290625

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Oh yeah, I've gotta quote this last part of the WaPo article:

When Bolton recounts the Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore, the first summit of U.S. and North Korean leaders in history, Bolton castigates Trumps diplomatic efforts, saying the president cared little for the details of the denuclearization effort and saw it merely as a an exercise in publicity.

He describes it extensively including what Kim and his advisers say, and what Trump and his advisers say in return, giving a fly-on-the-wall account of a historic event.

Trump told . . . me he was prepared to sign a substance-free communique, have his press conference to declare victory and then get out of town, Bolton wrote.

In the months following the summit, Bolton described Trumps inordinate interest in Pompeo delivering an autographed copy of Elton Johns Rocket Man on CD to Kim during Pompeos follow-on visit to North Korea. Trump had used the term Little Rocket Man to criticize the North Korean leader but subsequently tried to convince Kim that it was a term of affection.

Trump didnt seem to realize Pompeo hadnt actually seen Kim Jong Un [during the trip], asking if Pompeo had handed the CD, wrote Bolton. Pompeo had not. Getting this CD to Kim remained a high priority for several months.

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xp1337 posted...

I literally assume you can cut my playtime of games in half to get a sane approximation for a reasonable person. I don't know what it is about me. VNs aren't immune either.

Maybe not to that extent, but qualitatively same here

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WaPo summary of the Bolton book:

https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1273349135375241217?s=21

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Yeah VI is rare, unfortunately

I think the mobile version is the same as the DS version of youre okay with playing on a phone

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If Carlson is an entertainer and not a journalist, doesnt that also lower the standard for proving slander below actual malice?

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....oh my god, I never noticed thats a rebel. I always read it as thats horrible.

<3 Sarge.

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Why does Cory Gardner have used tissues lying around in a campaign ad

https://twitter.com/sarahlongwell25/status/1273237596076990467?s=21

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This, from Boltons book, is possibly one of the worst things Trump has done in his entire presidency (to whatever extent Xi went through with it because he thought thered be no blowback from the US):

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1273331729151950850?s=21

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damn, too slow to edit in that joke

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https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1273189117661270017

Maybe he's just a really big fan of Sam Waterson...!

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turbopuns3 posted...

Should anyone realistically expect the USA to outperform the EU in something like this? I ask earnestly.

When you break it down logistically, does it make sense for a single, huge, massively sprawling nation to have a more firm grasp on protecting its 330mil than 20 something small countries all self-managing (and maybe cooperating too but idk I haven't paid attention to Europe really)? You have to combine the top 7 EU states by population to equal the USA. That's 7 governments at the country/federal level. Like, is it fair to compare countries to U.S. states and say "Poland roughly equals California. Romania roughly equals New York." etc. based on population?

Curious how people feel about that. (I know the USA has sucked at everything, I'm not defending us.)

States (without federal support) are definitely at a disadvantage compared to nations, particularly with respect to funding (they can't just deficit spend like the federal government can). This is irrelevant in our current timeline because Trump was basically doing jack shit to help, but in a hypothetical Clinton (or Romney, or whoever) presidency where the federal government was more involved, you could very well have had additional problems where some states refused to get on board with the plan from the federal government.

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Corrik7 posted...

Actually, the opposite is likely true. When they re-open they have more people not with immunity to make it spike again.

Other than in NYC, thats not going to be all that significant. If 3% of your population got COVID, you only reduce R by 3%; that doesnt make the virus spread all that much less.

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Re deaths, yes its true that hospitals in several European countries were overwhelmed, boosting their case fatality rates; they waited too long to act. But when they did shut down, they were able to get the substantial decline you see in that graph (NYC did this too, but most of the US did not). Without getting our number of active cases under control like the EU now has, it isnt going to take all that much growth in cases to get us to the point of overwhelming hospitals in many areas (I believe thats close to being the case in some southern cities right now). If you crush the virus down to a small enough level, you might be able to handle it without measures like shutdowns (e.g. through context tracing). The higher prevalence is, the harder that becomes.

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Corrik7 posted...

Our goal wasn't to get rid of the Coronavirus. Our goal was to keep it from overwhelming our hospital systems.

Why is that the goal? Why are you satisfied with that level of response if the EU can reduce cases by much more in the same amount of time?

And if we do keep the goal as what you say it is, were very likely going to have to shut down again at some point since cases are going up again in a lot of areas in the US.

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Corrik7 posted...

Why is that depressing?

Weve done so much worse than the EU in getting covid under control despite having extra time to respond.

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Relevant to the topic title: continued watching the DQ arc in Gintama, and Gin correctly declared Bianca to be the right choice in DQV...!

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This is so depressing

https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1273029270898716673

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Annie went to the top of my list after my rewatch largely because I noticed how great she was about visibly reacting to what the other characters were doing.

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Annie > Jeff > Abed > Troy > Pierce > Shirley > Britta

Would have to think more to place the others

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Punnyz posted...

Call me a narc but I already reported it and it deleted the message, so I already don't remember

Good, he deserves to be banned if hes still harassing people through PMs.

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Polling averages:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1272894207959728132?s=21

FL is the tipping point state based on those.

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