Lurker > transience

well, Fire Emblem has fallen off this year compared to 2015. Xenoblade is a little stronger and probably beats DKC2, but it isn't some 60-40 match or anything.

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xyzzy

Xenoblade being strong is good and all, but it's only relative strength. DKC2 would also be close to a top 10 game in this contest.

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xyzzy

I guess it's to be expected that Witcher and Skyrim updates are tied at the hip. as Persona dies off, Skyrim rises

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xyzzy

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 54.99%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 55.27%

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xyzzy

I think favorite status depends on both matches. Persona 5 and Dark Souls are probably pretty close, so whoever gets the higher percentage is probably going in ahead.

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xyzzy

I feel like ME2 2015=2020 might be the best base you'll find based on the limited information this contest provides. if that's the case, BOTW looks to be just a little bit below LTTP.

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xyzzy

I got talked about, huh? maybe I'll tune in for the first time in a number of years.

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xyzzy

so, uh

Pokemon HG/SS
Xenoblade

Super Mario Galaxy 2
The Last of Us

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xyzzy

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 66.32%
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 65.11%

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xyzzy

wow, we went really low! I expected people to go in the high 60s

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xyzzy

I think this is the top 5:

BOTW
Witcher 3
Skyrim
Smash
Mario Odyssey

you can quibble on the order if you want, or add in Dark Souls if you really think it's all that.

the rest go something like:

Persona 5
Dark Souls
Mass Effect 2
Xenoblade
Persona 4

with Link Between Worlds as an honorable mention. I don't believe in God of War at all, really. it'll be hard to make direct comparisons with Witcher/Skyrim, Smash/Xenoblade and Zelda/Smash coming up. I wanted Persona 4 to win just to avoid Xenoblade getting potentially embarrassed.

edit: I just realized that we basically have 8 RPGs and 2 Nintendo games. yikes.

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xyzzy

a bit of an overreaction, but if BOTW can only barely get above 60% then I'm not convinced it's an undoubted lock to win the contest. I feel like Witcher would get in the high 50s.

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xyzzy

I dunno. what wins, Pokemon HG/SS or Galaxy 2? you can maybe replace Galaxy 2 with Mass Effect 1 if that's easier.

edit: for what it's worth (not much), HG/SS has 17 picks to get to the final, while Galaxy has 2.

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xyzzy

looks like the assumed semifinal has gone from being Galaxy 2 vs. MK8 to Galaxy 2 vs. Pokemon.

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xyzzy

so last of us vs. mario kart 8, eh

pretty funny that's the lynchpin given the uncharted 4 match

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xyzzy

only if the same goes for last of us

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xyzzy

gonna bring it back -- I still think Mario Kart 64 beats most of the games in this bracket, including every game in this match but Skyrim


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xyzzy

I'm not sure about Yakuza. it's more popular than people make it out to be, but it's also up against a game that's good with antivotes. you can kinda think of MGS5 like GTA5 given the backlash to it.

I actually don't think Dark Souls is that much of a monster, but it can make me look bad next round.


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xyzzy

if it's God of War being weak, then Smash sucks
if it's Witcher being a monster, then Galaxy 2 did pretty well which means Mario is better than Smash

either way rSFF hahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

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xyzzy

Leon give me RDR1 = RDR2

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xyzzy

from one persona comeback into another persona match

persona is the luckiest entrant this year by far

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xyzzy

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 59.81%
Persona 5 - 59.80%

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xyzzy

I actually had Smash in my second chance bracket until like 3 hours beforehand when I decided I had to stick with my pick

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xyzzy

it's the circumstance with Undertale after its 2018 run that makes me feel so dumb for doing it. I immediately regretted taking it over Shovel Knight, but even then I still didn't see Octopath coming.

my actual worst pick is probably taking Uncharted 4 two rounds.

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xyzzy

it is!

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xyzzy

picking Undertale to win 2 rounds after picking Sans to win 2 or 3 rounds last year is certainly up there for me

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xyzzy

I guess we'll find out in a few hours!

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xyzzy

I like how Leon and I took completely different paths to the Smash result

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xyzzy

I don't even think it's SFF, or not that much anyway. Fire Emblem just didn't show up this contest. I think stats would suggest that Cuphead gets like 48% on it.

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xyzzy

this just seems like a 50/50 match that the fanbase was going to back one way or the other. I don't think there's any reason to be indignant about it - both games looked about equal, maybe Mario a little bit more, and Smash is where the fanbase sided.

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xyzzy

I think this is probably rSFF, but just like in most cases the strength difference is probably negligible. I don't think Odyssey kills Ultimate or anything like that.

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xyzzy

what a bizarre swingy match

gotta love nintendo vs. nintendo

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xyzzy

if you get a second chance at the second chance then so do we

I'd like to change that Zelda with 78% pick pretty please

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xyzzy

Smash/Odyssey is Mario vs. Samus redux (reduxduxdux)

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xyzzy

you guys boxed me in on ME2 but not by enough!

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xyzzy

Super Mario Odyssey - 54.40%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 53.48%

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xyzzy

well, Smash wins the picture but that's to be expected

I guess P4 wins the other one

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xyzzy

phew, crew curse is the only chance I have in this match and I got it!

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xyzzy

Smash loses because of covid factor because everyone is forced to live with Ultimate's awful netcode. I like it


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xyzzy

there's also half the votes of the 2015 match that it rolled over with ease.

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xyzzy

the more I think about this match, the more I think that even if Odyssey is ahead, it'll lose due to rallying. I'd rather have Smash, I think, but that's just scars from the CT match.

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xyzzy

DMC5's in today's poll and it's doing better than I would have expected. it's not good, mind you, but it's about tied with MGS5 and RE5, which isn't bad. then again, so is Civ 5 so who knows. DMC5 is definitely the biggest knock against Odyssey's perceived contest dominance.

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xyzzy

better post those writeups early, it's gonna take a while for people to get through them!

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xyzzy

I agree that DQ11 is a beneficiary of circumstance. Xenoblade was the same.

I still don't think it beats 8, but this is a strong performance against what is theoretically a killer game.

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xyzzy

I think I feel more comfortable with this 52/48ish result from ME2 than when it was trending towards 55%+. it's just a few votes but this feels more in range with expectations given this crazy division.

I'm really excited to see who the crew backs tomorrow.

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xyzzy

vote ff5

I think I'm watching DMC5 the most. the biggest struggle I have with Odyssey is thinking about how DMC5 did reasonably well on it. if it can actually hang with some pretty good games, then that's something.

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xyzzy

tomorrow's gonna be ugly

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xyzzy

it means absolutely nothing. botw is about as complete of a game as you'll get without the dlc.

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xyzzy

yeah I guess we should use that one instead, though it doesn't seem like it'd change it too much

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xyzzy

it might not be totally representative but what do our numbers say if Awakening = Three Houses? Xenoblade/ME2 has been a debate for a while and I bet that suggests a good one

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xyzzy