Lurker > LeonhartFour

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:56:20 AM
#198
and yeah if you think Western SFF is a real thing Skyrim has no chance

although to be fair Skyrim hasn't faced a heaping helping of western games like Witcher 3 has
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TopicWhich game was stronger indirectly: Smash Ultimate or Mario Odyssey?
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:55:02 AM
#1
In other words, just plain SFF or the fabled rSFF?


Performances for quick reference:

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 82.98% vs. Tekken 7, 64.06% vs. Link Between Worlds, 63.61% vs. Spider-Man

Super Mario Odyssey - 85.97% vs. Mortal Kombat 11, 71.31% vs. Devil May Cry 5, 72.81% vs. Shovel Knight
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:50:30 AM
#194
CaptainOfCrush posted...
What's clear and what isn't? We're never going to have Smash and Odyssey face the exact same competition at the exact same time, so all we can do is analyze and interpret what they did and against who, and I think the prevailing Board 8 opinion now is that Odyssey was indirectly stronger but lost in a direct match.


it's the prevailing opinion among people who disrespect Spider-Man and have a weird amount of respect for Mortal Kombat 11, maybe...!
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:49:05 AM
#193
(wasn't rSFF)

(I'd sooner believe MGS1/MGS3, Melee/Brawl, or Tifa/Sephiroth was rSFF than Mario/Samus or Smash/Odyssey)
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:41:11 AM
#188
I mean, if we're talking about a clearly weaker game beating a stronger game just because the hardcore fanbase flipped the result, there aren't any definitive examples. You can say you think it happened, but the strengths have always been close enough that you can't say it definitely happened.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:33:57 AM
#186
UltimaterializerX posted...
We've seen that what, twice in 18 years?


still not convinced we've even seen it once
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TopicBest GotD 5 Seed Day 1
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:31:58 AM
#3
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:23:23 AM
#184
adamko posted...
is Mario 3D World stronger than Pokemon HGSS?


I would not expect Mario 3D World to be all that strong. Being a Wii U exclusive dooms it (at least until it comes out on Switch).
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:04:14 AM
#179
MechanicalWall posted...
not that MK8 would be stronger than Galaxy 2, a question no one seems to want to tackle.


because no one really knows what to make of MK8

Galaxy 2 is certainly not unbeatable. I would expect it to beat MK8 because of the Nintendo Hierarchy if nothing else, but that doesn't tell us much about their relative strengths.

(I still think Witcher 3 is the clear favorite, for what it's worth)
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 11:02:47 AM
#177
transcience posted...
hey Leon what does Skyrim = Witcher look like with our new results


The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 50.00%
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 50.00%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version 40.32%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 39.40%
Mario Kart 8 39.10%
NieR: Automata 38.81%
God of War - 35.52%
Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End 32.18%
Fallout: New Vegas - 31.78%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn 31.00%
Dark Souls III - 29.26%
Stardew Valley - 28.30%
Journey 25.02%
Bayonetta 2 24.52%
Divinity: Original Sin II 24.27%
Rayman Legends 22.60%
Celeste 22.40%
Mass Effect 3 - 21.60%
Nioh - 18.14%
Crypt of the NecroDancer 17.65%
Dishonored - 17.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 17.01%
Fate/Grand Order 16.91%
Destiny - 16.32%
Subnautica 16.00%
Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 15.77%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 14.94%
Night in the Woods 14.55%
The Stanley Parable - 13.09%
The Talos Principle - 10.71%
Return of the Obra Dinn - 10.05%

just for the curious, Witcher 3 would need to get 65.56% on Skyrim for Night in the Woods to finish below Return of the Obra Dinn
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TopicIs there a bigger strength gap between the elites and the rest of the field?
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:56:46 AM
#4
LinkMarioSamus posted...
It feels like there's only a handful of games in the top tier this time around compared to in GOTD 1.


no, the big difference is that there is one game (possibly two) that is clearly stronger than every other game in the contest

beyond that it's about the same
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:55:49 AM
#173
MechanicalWall posted...
There's a decent amount of space between New Vegas and God of War.


Yes, 5%

If you wouldn't hesitate to pick them to beat New Vegas, then you're putting them within at least a few percent of GoW.
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:53:27 AM
#167
MechanicalWall posted...
Alternatively do MK8 OR Pokemon best God of War


do they lose to New Vegas?

if they don't you have to at least give them a chance
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:52:20 AM
#165
Yeah, we have very rarely gotten a clear read on a Mario Kart game. I think the only one before this year was Mario Kart Wii, and that one isn't as clearly liked as SMK, MK64, or even MK8.
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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:51:24 AM
#134
Yeah, that was my reasoning, too.

Mario Kart 8 is the game that's surpassing all my expectations here.
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TopicThe Outer Worlds? More like The OWNEDer Worlds
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:43:16 AM
#61
The Last of Us? More like The Last of OWNED

Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver? More like POWNEDkemon HeartGold/Soul/Silver

ROLF
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Topicdo you think this was intentional? (Phoenix Wright 2 JFA)
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:42:06 AM
#15
It would only be coincidence if they were separate games (such as Godot not being able to see red on white and Mia's killer being Redd White). It's not like their names are "Ini Miney" and "Moe" in Japanese. The localization team comes up with the names.
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TopicSaveEstelle/LeonhartFour in Different Houses: Bachelorhood's End Edition [SELF]
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:40:08 AM
#272
TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:39:21 AM
#132
I mean it's the same question!

HG/SS was never going to be as strong as G/S/C. It's not in the same situation as P4G.
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TopicThe Last of Us
LeonhartFour
05/08/20 10:38:25 AM
#46
VeryInsane posted...
I feel like those who don't like the ending just don't like how it's kind of a gray area built upon a question.


nah
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 11:17:19 PM
#123
I don't think anyone is saying this performance is bad

there's just reason to believe it caught TLOU at the absolute right time and it wouldn't have done this a week ago
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 11:09:51 PM
#119
Sharinnegan posted...
i think Dark Souls still goes into the next round as a slight favorite.


based on what?
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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 11:09:15 PM
#123
transcience posted...
Leon, what does Dark Souls = Skyrim look like?


The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 50.00%
Dark Souls - 50.00%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version 41.96%
NieR: Automata 40.39%
The Last of Us - 39.23%
Mario Kart 8 39.10%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 36.71%
Batman: Arkham City - 35.12%
Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End 32.18%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 31.99%
Yakuza 0 - 31.39%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn 31.00%
Diablo III - 28.81%
BioShock Infinite - 28.22%
Bayonetta 2 25.52%
Divinity: Original Sin II 25.26%
Journey 25.02%
Rayman Legends 23.52%
Celeste 23.31%
Rocket League - 22.66%
Dragon Ball FighterZ - 21.91%
Dead Cells - 20.18%
Terraria - 18.25%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 17.86%
Crypt of the NecroDancer 17.65%
Hotline Miami - 17.01%
Fate/Grand Order 16.91%
Subnautica 16.00%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 15.55%
Night in the Woods 15.14%
Crusader Kings II - 14.24%
The Witness - 14.19%
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:58:42 PM
#113
Wanglicious posted...
all i want out of this fourpack is for Nier > TLOU to be a thing.



Currently Skyrim doesn't even have to win for that to happen. It just needs 48.70% on Dark Souls.

Of course, that will shift if Skyrim keeps going up and Dark Souls keeps going down.
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:56:13 PM
#111
HaRRicH posted...
Hey Leon -- assuming TLoU = LoZ:LBW (and assuming no SFF in SSBU > LoZ:LBW), where do we land stat-wise?


Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 50.00%
Dark Souls - 46.01%
Super Mario Odyssey 44.06%
Marvels Spider-Man 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds 35.94%
The Last of Us - 35.94%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain - 33.78%
Batman: Arkham City - 32.17%
Minecraft 30.82%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 29.31%
Yakuza 0 - 28.89%
Diablo III - 26.39%
Bayonetta 26.24%
BioShock Infinite - 25.86%
Devil May Cry 5 25.28%
Shovel Knight 23.96%
Octopath Traveler 23.78%
Undertale 22.22%
Dead Space 2 21.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 21.54%
Rocket League - 20.85%
Dragon Ball FighterZ - 20.16%
Dead Cells - 18.57%
Dragons Dogma 17.06%
Tekken 7 17.02%
Terraria - 16.72%
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 16.36%
Hotline Miami - 15.65%
Dota 2 14.97%
The Witness - 13.06%
Crusader Kings II - 13.05%
Mortal Kombat 11 12.36%
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:50:05 PM
#107
also I'm thinking TLOU at least gets over 40% by the end of this so it'll look slightly less embarrassing
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:48:42 PM
#106
transience posted...
only if the same goes for last of us


I mean GoW > Witcher 3 somehow ends up being the worse pick but sure!

no one could have seen those TLOU2 leaks coming but seeing Witcher 3 being an absolute beast was definitely something we all openly discussed
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Topicdo you think this was intentional? (Phoenix Wright 2 JFA)
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:47:20 PM
#12
it's mind blowing because the pun doesn't work with the way I pronounce Relm's last name

but I learned that one long ago anyway
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:46:01 PM
#103
is it okay to laugh at the people who actually picked Pokemon to beat Skyrim yet
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Topicdo you think this was intentional? (Phoenix Wright 2 JFA)
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 10:44:38 PM
#9
SeabassDebeste posted...
i don't think so. moe is just a 3 stooges reference.


they can do double puns
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Topicdo you think this was intentional? (Phoenix Wright 2 JFA)
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 9:31:34 PM
#2
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 9:17:29 PM
#76
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 9:14:41 PM
#72
TheCodeisBosco posted...
Holy crap, is Dark Souls seriously doing this without a dedicated rally? >_> I feel like I'm missing something here.


didn't read those TLOU2 leaks huh
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 9:12:04 PM
#68
Sharinnegan posted...
I believe Death Stranding won more awards than Uncharted 4 at the respective game awards of their years.


it also received a lot more backlash
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TopicSaveEstelle/LeonhartFour in Different Houses: Bachelorhood's End Edition [SELF]
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:31:50 PM
#261
I'm 7 points off of the Second Chance leaderboard. I got a perfect prediction on Persona 5! Skyrim prediction is looking good if it goes up a bit more!

unfortunately I'm way off on Dark Souls today lawl
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:27:33 PM
#486
Trend charts:

Time | Witcher 3 | GoW | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 66.18% | 33.82% | 544 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 64.11% | 35.89% | 3625 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 64.23% | 35.77% | 8580 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 66.01% | 33.99% | 3530 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 64.38% | 35.62% | 5778 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 64.21% | 35.79% | 5001 | (17:00-24:00)

Witcher 3 gets a little bump from the Euro vote but is pretty stable otherwise.

Time | Persona 5 | Portal 2 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 52.39% | 47.61% | 544 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 58.27% | 41.73% | 3623 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 57.97% | 42.03% | 8584 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 58.84% | 41.16% | 3528 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 54.84% | 45.16% | 5779 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 58.13% | 41.87% | 5001 | (17:00-24:00)

Dunno where that morning vote surge for Portal 2 came from but it ruined my shot at a perfect Oracle...!
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TopicSaveEstelle/LeonhartFour in Different Houses: Bachelorhood's End Edition [SELF]
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:23:54 PM
#259
all hail Skyrim for eradicating the Pokemon menace

Team Rocket Elite posted...
I picked TLoU to beat Dark Souls in my main bracket. lol me


those darn TLOU2 leaks
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:22:40 PM
#483
X-Stats:

Division 5

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
God of War 35.52%
Fallout: New Vegas 31.78%
Dark Souls III 29.26%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Nioh 18.14%
Dishonored 17.60%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 15.77%
The Stanley Parable 13.09%
The Talos Principle 10.71%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%

Division 6

Persona 5 50.00%
Portal 2 42.53%
Red Dead Redemption 2 39.57%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 33.55%
Sonic Mania 32.11%
Kingdom Hearts III 32.02%
Tomb Raider 29.52%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 25.21%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 23.93%
Super Meat Boy 22.58%
Street Fighter V 22.46%
Heavy Rain 21.71%
Disco Elysium 20.45%
Dying Light 14.72%
Slay the Spire 14.02%
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:16:11 PM
#467
ctesjbuvf posted...
The Witcher hasn't exactly had any noteworthy board vote. It rose quite a bit in some if it's matches after it even.


yeah it lost the board vote to Mass Effect 3 of all things
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:15:31 PM
#462
yeah the lower half of the X-Stats in Division 7 are totally tanked
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1358
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:14:33 PM
#3
TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:12:57 PM
#106
transcience posted...
a round after last of us has one of the worst board votes ever, it has one of the best? sure


Dark Souls and Skyrim have both had awful board votes in every match
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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:12:09 PM
#459
squexa posted...


I think even FFVII could win a board vote against Skyrim


Dark Souls has jumped up a lot after the board vote in every match as well
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:11:06 PM
#454
this makes me wonder who in the world is going to win the Dark Souls/Skyrim board vote
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:10:24 PM
#450
5 minute X-Stats:

Division 7

Dark Souls 50.00%
The Last of Us 42.44%
Batman: Arkham City 37.99%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 36.71%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 34.61%
Yakuza 0 31.39%
Diablo III 31.17%
BioShock Infinite 30.53%
Rocket League 22.66%
Dragon Ball FighterZ 21.91%
Dead Cells 20.18%
Terraria 19.74%
Zero Escape: Virtues Last Reward 19.32%
Hotline Miami 17.01%
Crusader Kings II 15.41%
The Witness 14.19%

Division 8

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 50.00%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Version 47.59%
NieR: Automata 45.81%
Mario Kart 8 39.10%
Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End 32.18%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn 31.00%
Bayonetta 2 28.94%
Divinity: Original Sin II 28.65%
Rayman Legends 26.68%
Celeste 26.44%
Journey 25.02%
Crypt of the NecroDancer 17.65%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 17.64%
Night in the Woods 17.17%
Fate/Grand Order 16.91%
Subnautica 16.00%
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:04:34 PM
#434
CaptainOfCrush posted...

My memory is fuzzy (which is sad) but didn't this exact same thing happen against Mario Kart a few days ago? Skyrim stormed back after an abysmal opening 30 seconds but didn't rise nearly as much as we thought.


It got up to 53% by the freeze and rose to nearly 61%

it's definitely going way up from here, especially since Pokemon has one of the best board votes around
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:03:08 PM
#425
and Dark Souls is leaving TLOU in the dust right as I say that
---
TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:02:35 PM
#99
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:02:03 PM
#415
also Dark Souls looks bad especially with these TLOU leaks and the fact that it should have brackets

I'd love to see TLOU actually win this
---
TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357
LeonhartFour
05/07/20 8:01:26 PM
#412
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