Lurker > ShatteredElysium

Mega Man - 53.3%
Bowser - 53.1%

You can also line up that timestamp with Creative's site to see it coincides with Zelda's lead increasing.

Couple that with 2 blocks of 60-90 minutes earlier in the match which are pretty irregular with the surrounding patterns around them and it's pretty obvious that Zelda was aided.

I mean he flat out said in the stats topic he was going to rally Zelda

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Monday, December 3
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tennisboy213 posted...

Zelda by the hour:
time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
20:00 | 50.64% | +50 | +50
21:00 | 51.10% | +55 | +105
22:00 | 52.27% | +98 | +203
23:00 | 50.30% | +11 | +214
00:00 | 52.87% | +84 | +298
01:00 | 51.00% | +29 | +327
02:00 | 46.02% | -96 | +231
03:00 | 47.79% | -43 | +188
04:00 | 49.82% | -3 | +185
05:00 | 44.30% | -80 | +105
06:00 | 44.84% | -75 | +30
07:00 | 46.95% | -54 | -24
08:00 | 50.00% | 0 | -24
09:00 | 50.58% | +12 | -12
10:00 | 50.98% | +20 | +8
11:00 | 51.47% | +29 | +37
12:00 | 54.75% | +91 | +128
13:00 | 50.17% | +3 | +131
14:00 | 51.51% | +26 | +157
15:00 | 48.48% | -23 | +134
16:00 | 49.86% | -2 | +132
17:00 | 50.57% | +7 | +139
18:00 | 51.01% | +14 | +153

Snake needs to cut 12.75 votes/update

These 2 look so out of place. I guess technically so does the 02:00 one but we at least we know that is an expected trend shift whereas the other 2 look isolated

If it happened it would be amazing but let's not kid ourselves, it isn't going to happen.

Samus Aran - 54.2%
Mario - 52.1%

Predicting Mario over Seph just feels wrong but whatever

Yeah, barring a Snake rally this is done. That update was all Snake falling away rather than Zelda spiking like previously

Another large update for Zelda. If she carries on like this she either has a minor rally or the voting pattern has swung enough where Snake will get buried

Her last 2 updates were 41 and 45 after averaging 26.9 votes the previous 10 updates

Zelda responds to the lead being cut to 100 with the largest update by either of them in over an hour

I mean 80% on Ganon is massively down on the 87.9% he put on Ganon in 2k4 which was worse than he beat CATS the previous round

Really what killed Snake was that huge 60-90 minutes worth of stalling in the middle of the night vote where you would have expected Snake to pick up 100+ votes but Zelda completely stalled him

I'd say Snake needs to start making larger cuts without stalls to have a chance. If it's close in the final hour, I think Zelda would have more chance of being pushed to victory than Snake

I would think if he gets it under 100 that Zelda just instantly bounces back. Like you said, every time he's made significant gains Zelda has erased long chunks of cuts in 2-3 updates

It's the fact that it's Zelda that is jarring for me. We already get to see Link destroy everything all the time, we don't need a second person from the same game wading their way through the N9 too

Qwaar posted...

What's the record for the closest gap at the end of a match?

7 votes in 1 on 1. 3 votes when not 1 on 1

Well that actually happened just before the scenario I described too. Magic got the ball off a failed free throw and were about to fast break but clock failed to start causing the whistle and allowing Portland to set a defense and Magic to have to inbound instead of fast break (no chance magic call timeout as they have none)

Then when they inbound that whole scenario I described above went down so it was a double screw up really.

I don't know why they don't just let then take the shot in either scenario and then review to see if they took it in time afterwards if they make it

Even if Snake does pull this off, this is still a bracketbuster for me (and I'm in the Top 10) as I have Snake going past Mario which has zero chance of happening based on this match

2Dover3D posted...

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Hopefully Snake's night vote ends up being a thing of beauty

He's going to need it, because by the time he stops bleeding it could be a 500 vote lead. Not even Geralt being a European character moved 500 votes overnight, more like 200-300.

I think the bleeding has already stopped to an extent. Last few updates have had the lead at 340 > 341 > 342 > 337 > 319. He will likely start stalling out here or possibly even cutting

Yeah I would say Zelda already has this unless theres a rally. It's already looking like too many votes to overturn when he's going to lose the day vote. Maybe if it was even here but not 300+ votes down. He might not even retake the lead at this rate

imthestuntman posted...

Looks like a mgs rally has already been posted on Reddit.

Not seeing anything for Zelda yet, unless there is a hentai rally. I mean where would you even go to find hentai, much less fans of it to rally....

MGS rally would be best to try tweet David Hayter since he's retweeted for Snake in the past

And that was a messy finish. Magic inbound with 4.7 on the clock 3 points down, Portland deflect it and Magic recover it after a scramble and launch it down court for an open 3 except whistle blows because the clock never started.

Magic then get the ball to inbound again after review but with only 0.9 seconds on the clock for some reason instead if 4.7 seconds. They do nothing with it because they are impounding from their own half and it isnt enough time

We likely don't get the needed 3 anyway but that was a bad time for a clock malfunction. Portland win 115-112

Magic down by 3 with a minute to go but can already see this being a loss. Had 3 turnovers in a row at 111-110

Game was lost in a really bad 3rd which I didn't see. I know we were up by 8 at HT when I fell asleep and then down by 11 when I woke up at the end of the 3rd. 40-21 apparently

ScareChan posted...

Nick Foles will remember that

I would have taken Nick Foles if you hadn't cut him. I was half way through sorting an AI trade out to get you a piece for him when you cut him :(

Trade to announce

Steelers Receive
QB Alex Smith (82 - 31yo)

Cowboys Receive
WR O.J. Murdock (82 - 29yo)

Cowboys get a WR they desperately need. Steelers get a serviceable QB2 that isn't going to cost them a fortune and is on an expiring deal.

I've tried to trade with other people, just haven't found any takers yet

Yeah that's a huge bounceback and it's not like either is spiking. It's the other falling off that is causing it

That's a pretty substantial cut

Solid Snake - 53.7%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 57.3%

Yeah basically it was a 2nd and 3rd for O'Neal and Malone and ideally would have been picks this year not next. Then I asked if he would include Sitton too if I bumped the 2nd to a 1st.

2 reasons behind me wanting Sitton. He's significantly better than my current backup C/G for virtually the same contract and O-line is a high attrition position. Second reason is he's an RFA next season so I basically get a cheap year out of him next year too (or someone gives me a high draft pick for him)

I really hope the 1st conveys as I think 2x 2nds are more valuable than 1x 1st. Especially as one of the 2nds would be a very high second

Well with 4 bench spots your waivers will be ripe with good players. Most leagues I play in have ridiculously deep benches so that players never have to make the decision to cut good players and can just stash players on their bench

For example my 16 man league has a 6 man bench with 1 IR slot. My 12 man league has a 9 man bench (but is a 2 IDP league) with 2 IR slots

Trade to annouce

Steelers receive:
WR Kenny O'Neal (85 - 29yo)
P Tom Malone (99 - 33yo)
C Josh Sitton (83 - 25yo)
Wildcats 4th (Pick 2 of round)
S12 Dolphins 6th

Dolphins receive:
Chiefs 4th (Pick 1 of round)
S12 Steelers 1st (Top 10 protected)
S12 Steelers 3rd

* If Steelers pick falls in Top 10, Dolphins receive Steelers' 2nd in S12 and S13 drafts.

The Chiefs/Wildcats picks are basically just in there because something has to go in the opposite direction this season to make the trade work (although he will have to get creative as I think only 3 things can be sent in 1 direction per trade). Ideally I'd have sent picks this season but KCF is already over the max allowed draft picks (10) so I couldn't send any.

Cloud Strife - 61.7%
Crono - 53.7%

Moonroof posted...

Frog and MC was seven votes. That will forever be one. Jill and Ryu is up there too.

Well that's closest match, not closest wire to wire.

For reference here's the top 10 of that list

1. Shadow of the Colossus > Metal Gear Solid 2 2010, lead maxed at 188*
2. Team Fortress 2 > Fable 2010, lead maxed at 210*
3. DKC2 > Xenoblade 2015, lead maxed at 290
4. Ocelot > Dedede 2018, lead maxed at 328
5. Persona 4 > Dead Rising 2010, lead maxed at 347*
6. Garrus Vakarian > Ramza Beoulve 2018, lead maxed at 418
7. Frog > Liquid Snake 2004, lead maxed at 460
8. Tifa > Mega Man X 2018, lead maxed at 469
9. Ken > Albert Wesker 2010, lead maxed at 471*
10. Metal Gear Solid 3 > Shadow of the Colossus 2010, lead maxed at 515*

If you remove the 1 vs 1 stipulation then this match also has it beat

Vivi > Mario 2013, lead maxed at 204*

OFool posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Unless someone absolutely runs away with it in the last few hours this match will become our closest wire to wire match involving characters 1 on 1. Will slot in at 3rd all time on closest wire to wire matches 1 on 1

Closest or 3rd closest, which is it?

Closest involving characters. 3rd closest overall as the 2 matches above it in the list would be between games.

Unless someone absolutely runs away with it in the last few hours this match will become our closest wire to wire match involving characters 1 on 1. Will slot in at 3rd all time on closest wire to wire matches 1 on 1

It's funny how all these people calling other people idiots aren't sat at the top of the leaderboard. If only they used their incredible knowledge and foresight during the bracket process, nobody else would stand a chance.

ShatteredElysium posted...

Oh apparently I'm not mathematically eliminated in the league where I got 215 and 197 the last 2 weeks

6 playoff spots. 4 teams already have 7+ wins, I cap out at 6 wins. So I would need at least 2 other teams to not reach 7 wins and I'd win the tiebreaker over any of them right now. Which means I need:

6-4 Team A to lose twice (looks like they get 1-2 wins)
6-4 Team B to lose twice (looks like 0-1 wins)
5-5 Team C to not win twice (looks like 1 win)
5-5 Team D to not win twice (looks like 1-2 wins)
Me to win twice (both matches 50-50)

So it's a very outside shot but could happen

So update on this entering final week. I need to win and I need 3 other teams to lose, I comfortably have the tiebreaker. By projections only 1 of those teams is projected to lose

Which means I likely miss out on the playoffs due to losing with 215 points. Or alternatively (and more gut wrenchingly), I miss the playoffs due to losing by 0.8 points week 1 to the person who will be 1 win ahead of me.

Vucevic has been our best player by a long way. He should get all star consideration if he keeps it up.

Jonathan Isaac has been excellent too. He's coming off the bench but is fantastic on D and offensively he has improved massively. He is going to be a menace in the future. I am very confident of him being an all star down the line. Its a big ask but he definitely could be a Kawhi Leonard type player in the future

Aaron Gordon has looked inconsistent. Some nights be will explode offensively and other nights he will go missing. One thing I will say though is defensively he keeps getting matched up against the oppositions best players and more often than not he has kept them to way under their average.

Terrance Ross deserves a mention too. He has been incredible with his scoring off the bench. I am a little concerned he won't be able to sustain it but he has been scoring at a ridiculous clip and seems to get so many important buckets for us to keep us ahead or keep the momentum going. He's been on fire from 3 when we needed it

Mixed reviews from me but I'm probably harsher on him than most

His minutes have been very limited (usually like 13 mins a game) because Vucevic has been outstanding. He can be prone to giving fouls but he's definitely disruptive. I think his presence on the court does more than his actual contribution. I'm sure he will improve as he gets more minutes

My biggest complaint about him is his ball handling seems to be awful. He mishandles and loses the ball a lot. I don't know if it's because his arms are just so long but I've been frustrated a lot by him losing the ball or not grabbing the ball off defensive disruption where I feel it shouldn't happen

His offensive contribution has been so so but has improved recently

It would take large regression from where we are now to finish sub 500. Not saying it won't happen because we have seen it happen multiple times in the last few years but this year does at least have a different feel to it. They are defending well, hustling for the ball and scoring via moving the ball around well rather than relying on high percentage shooting that is unsustainable.

For as bad as we were last year it started because of injuries. We had more injuries last year than the previous 3 years combined in terms of games missed by starters. And before injuries we had a solid record

I think you're right and 9-10 is more likely than above 500 and playoffs but that's relying on a down tick in playing. If they keep playing like this they will cruise to the playoffs because they stifle lesser teams. They have also had one of the roughest schedules in the league so far and so logically must have one of the weakest second half schedules

I doubt when the season is over that the Magic are seen as trash. These aren't flukes performances we are putting in

This really felt like the Raptors game. A game on paper we should have had no chance in but on the court we should have won. Both times we come up just short. It took 49 from Durant and Thompson scoring I think 19 in the 4th to beat us. Both of them had to play 40 minutes too

If we keep playing like this though for sure we are a playoff team. Eventually some of these games will go our way and we should beat a lot of lesser teams playing like this

That might be the turning point. Magic get fouled but it somehow gets called as a foul against the Magic. Thompson immediately drills a catch and shoot 3 to take the lead afterwards and Magic then miss 2 free throws at opposite end on next possession

Wasn't expecting to win this game or even keep it close pregame but this is disappointing because of the faint hope from having such a large lead. Warriors just made their inevitable march back and a couple of favorable ref calls have aided it (to be expected when you're the champions and at home to be fair so not really complaining about it)

Warriors cut it back to 4 to end the 3rd. Partially ref assisted, largely down to us floundering with a series of turnovers

Warriors left Durant out for entire 3rd quarter. Basically all their scoring is coming through him. He's probably going to have a 40-50 point game

We are on a back to back and somehow we are up 58-40 against the Warriors on the road. Now I'm sure they will bring themselves back into it but we have comfortably been the better team so far.

EDIT: 64-47 at half time

1030 start times on a Monday night should be outlawed. Like I get it, theres a time difference, but why couldn't it start at like 9 or 930 eastern instead.